A blowout of historical proportion
I hope. Only fitting, that Hillary Clinton is going to win with a victory for the record books. Or, rather, that Donald Trump is going to lose one that is in the record books.
This is my last political post on MyDD; last political prediction. Just a handful of posts this year, it started out where I thought it would. In NH, with Trump winning, the election was over. It did not matter that Clinton lost NH, only that Trump won, as his path to the nomination was secure and so was Clinton's in beating him easily.
Start looking at Presidential elections where there is not an incumbent President running for re-election, and the final numbers. These are typically the elections without major 3rd Party candidates, as two competing visions take the near-majority of the voters. It looks like Trump will do worse than any candidate in an open election in a long long time.
First, Trump's loss, in the modern era without the above qualification. He'll enter the group of elite losers.
We have to go back further. Mondale in '84 with 40 percent; Carter in '80 with 41 percent; McGovern with 38 percent in '72; Goldwatr in '64 with 38 percent. That's the group Trump belongs with, at least without qualification. His brand will be associated with the biggest political losers of his generation; by far, and without question.
But with the qualification that it is an open election, it really opens up the view to just how monumental the loss by Trump will be. These elections without an incumbent, '08, '00, '88, '68, '60. All pretty close. YOu might say Dukakis in '88 is not close, as Mike only won 11 states and DC, but he got 46% of the vote. Trump will not come close to that total. Dukakis will rank above Trump. We have to keep going.
The loser in the open '52 race, Stevenson; he got 44% and won 9 states. Trump will win a few more states, but probably not reach 44 percent. I think we keep going back. All the way o 1928, when Hoover beat Al Smith, the latter who got 41% and won 8 states. That's where this is headed, Trump at 41 percent.
Clinton is also going to win a few unexpected states. I'd say among Utah, Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina, Clinton wins 2-3 of those states.
Gary Johnson had a real shot. If he had spent the last 4 fears boning up on policy, and not tried to come across as such a joker, he could have had a serious run. I hoped for more.
Personally, I like Hillary Clinton, and will gladly vote for her in this election. I wish her much luck, and wouldn't want to go through the hell she will endure the next 4 years. Adios amigos.