The October Surprise

This is shaping up to not turn out as expected. Well, the second part, anyway. Clinton is ahead of Trump and will win a one-on-one. I don't care what the polls say otherwise, Clinton wins that matchup everytime at the state level. The primaries have ended with the frontrunner securing the nomination (not technically, yet).

But who thought that the GOP race would be over before the Democratic one? And Sanders is just pulling tighter. The Morning Consult national poll is at 48-42. Sanders is very close, but has not been able to knot it up. We'll see what June 7th brings. At some point, the flag gets waved or the troops move onto a new fight. The chances of Sanders going Independent seem slim, but what about a Sanders-Stein Green ticket come August? That seems within the realm of happening, with at least a slim shot.

Johnson's choosing of Weld was a great move. Without another entry of a 3rd party ticket, they may be the October surprise. They would need to get to at least 30% nationally for them to win a few states though, and that seems a high hurdle.

And where are the pro-life conservative voters going to go? That's where I think Ben Sasse comes in to run. You see, he doesn't need to win, but only finish in the top three. And I think a plurality, or perhaps a majority, of the states back Sasse in the House.

The amount of disdain for Trump and Clinton is palatable. All a viable candidate needs is to keep either of them from a majority of the EV's and it would go to the House for a vote.

If it goes to House, each state delegation casts one vote for one of the top three EV contenders to determine a winner. All Sasse and, say Romney, need to do is win one state, be it Utah or Nebraska, and they are in 3rd. That doesn't even take 30% nationally.

Come January 2017, the Republicans will likely still have the majority of state delegates in the House, and they will block vote behind a sitting member above all others. And second, they would rather have a Republican, be it Johnson/Weld or Sasse/Romney, than Clinton, or, for that matter, Sanders/Stein.

Clinton, all of a sudden, looks very weak in this projected outlook. Maybe she lucks out still with an EV majority. Perhaps. I like the idea of Sasse running, if only to make sure Trump does not become President.

I really like the idea of five viable tickets running for the President. Like most Americans, I don't even know who I'd vote for in that scenario. If this unlikely scenario happens, it may just wind up influencing the state delegate composition as well.

Maybe it winds up with none of the candidates being able to reach 26 state votes. Then it would go to the Senate, where a majority would choose among the top two tickets VP choices, for President. Far-reached, for sure, but the potential endgame if things start to go on tilt in October.


The Race Goes On for Bernie and Ted

Bernie and Ted refuse to turn over. Kasich is an afterthought, at least for now. Clinton's inevitability remains, but not so much for Trump.

Bernie Sanders has won six of the seven contests since 3/15 and gained 81 delegates on Clinton. But, to put that in perspective, Clinton gained 102 delegates over Sanders on 3/15. He's closing the gap, but its still a big hole of over 200 pledged delegates, 1253-1025. Next up, a Wisconsin primary and a Wyoming caucus. Sanders will narrow the gap further. To just 200 delegates? Possibly. Then the huge contest in New York, on April 19th, with 291 delegates at stake. That's a really big deal. Clinton has to be expected to win New York. I'll venture that if Sanders comes out of New York down just 200 delegates, he's barely still got gas. There are few few caucuses going forward, which helps Clinton. But California is huge and might eventually favor Sanders, but for now leans to Clinton.

Ted Cruz is also a winner of the caucus system. He swept the Utah caucus, and the ND caucus has all the makings of an Anti-Trump selection. Cruz is also likley to gain about 40 delegates overall on Trump in Wisconsin. The GOP is getting behind Cruz, and it's beginning to show up in the polls. A recent CA poll shows the trend-- Cruz and Trump now tied in a state that Trump must win in order to gain a majority of delegates prior to the July convention. Overall, Trump is still in a commanding position, leading Cruz by over 280 delegates, with 47% of the pledged delegates. If Trump goes over 50% of the delegates with New York, he starts to look inevitable.

It still looks like a Trump vs Clinton contest. Gary Johnson polls over 10% as the Libertarian candidate, and we are sure to get a Christian Constitutionalist candidate if Trump is the GOP nominee. It's doubtful any other 3rd party candidate emerges on the right. On the left, the longer Sanders goes on, the more likely is is that the Green Party gets a rise from an anti-Clinton defection.


Clinton sweeps, Trump loses Ohio

That would be the headline. Trump lost Ohio resoundingly, and continued his luck by winning the states of NC and IL, only because of multiple candidates, and winning MO by just 2,000 votes. Clinton won MO by just over 500 votes, that's close.

Rubio lost Florida, and it wasn't even close. He's out, and it's a three way race. In the next three contests, each are favored. Trump in Arizona, Cruz in the Utah caucus, and Kasich in the Wisconsin primary. This is going to continue, probably to the convention.

Sanders is in Arizona, and will compete there, but the nomination race is over. Clinton now leads by over 300, with 58% of the delegates to date. Sanders though, would be well to stay in, and continue by bashing Trump. It bodes ill if he's bashing Clinton at this point. I don't expect I will be paying much attention, if any at all, to a Clinton vs Trump contest.


A Trump & Bernie Day

Trump's target of delegates for this Tuesday is 272 according to 538. Florida is 99 and Ohio is 66. Together, Missouri and Illinois are 121. North Carolina has 72, and the Northern Marianas has 9.

Trump is making a last minute push to capture Ohio, feeling no doubt, according the polls, that Florida is secure. Ohio polling shows Kasich ahead or tied in its last six polls. In NC, Trump will take about 45 percent, will sweep the 9 from NM (per reports), and MO & IL will be about a tie between Trump and Cruz.

That puts Trump at, give or take 200, about 70 short of his target. Rubio drops out, and its a three way race. If Trump also wins Ohio then he's at his target, and Kasich also drops out too. Either way, there's still one more act to play out in the Republican nomination race. Despite the last post I made, from what I can tell, Trump's numbers have continued to surge, or at least maintain, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him win across the board tomorrow.

Bernie has polls showing him very close, or leading, in the states of Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio. If he wins those three states, it's going to be very interesting and competitive going into the next states. A Utah caucus, which Bernie will win. An Arizona primary, which will be competitive, and then a Wisconsin primary in April, which Bernie would also probalby win.

Even if he wins just one state tomorrow, Bernie will go on. But if he wins three, and then the next three states, its going to move the discourse to a level where there is talk of Sanders taking the lead in delegates.

Bernie is not there yet, but if he's able to half the lead, by April 5th, from the current 212 of pledged delegates to about 100, it begins to be a plausible outcome.


For 3/15 Primaries: Dump Trump and Sanders Upset?

That's the opposite of what is supposed to occur on Tuesday, but who knows! There are signs though, of Trump dumping and Sanders upsetting.

Going into this, from 3/1 Super Tuesday, the conclusion would have been seen as Trump and Clinton sweeping the states of MO, NC, IL, OH, FL. They were ahead in the polls of those states.

The results from Wyoming and DC might be an outlier or significant of things to come. Trump only recieved 7% of the vote in WY and 14% in DC. Resulting in delegates:

Rubio: 11
Cruz: 10
Kasich: 9
Unassigned: 8
Trump: 1

DC is not shocking, but only 7% in the Wyoming caucus for Trump? In Idaho, albeit a primary, Trump got 28% so perhaps. Onto the states:

Ohio-- Kasich should win solidly, probably in the mid-40's. Trump's numbers are falling, he might wind up 3rd behind Cruz in the state. There are not enough places in Ohio for Trump to flame the discontent; the economy is well and Kasich is fairly popular.

North Carolina-- Trump will win widely, 40% or so, Cruz in 2nd. Trump's numbers here have went up since the Chicago flare-up. NC Republicans have both Dixie & Appalachia, so not surprising at all. However, the delegates are awarded by vote, so even Rubio and Kasich will get a few.

Missouri-- It's between Cruz & Trump. I will predict a Cruz upset in MO overall, but a Trump win in the CD's. There is only one poll, showing it close, but Cruz has done well in the midwestern cities. Trump will win the Ozarks by a majority.

Illinois-- Like MO. It might also vote Kasich above the threshold for delegates by winning a couple of CD's. Really hard to predict how the state of Lincoln goes Trump, but it might, in a slim plurality. I'll predict a Cruz victory because of the downstate mild-mannered vote.

Florida-- Rubio could pull an upset, according the the Mason-Dixon poll. Here's the pros: It's a closed primary, Trump heavily depends on voters aged 18-24, and Rubio leads among the most likely voters, aged 65 plus. Rubio also leads among the early voters, by 9 percent. Everything about this poll, and how Florida votes, is pointing to an upset.

The cons (shorter but more significant): Other polls have Trump winning Florida easily.

On the Democratic side, Clinton should win all 5 of these states. But that's not going to happen most likely.

Illinois-- Sanders has the lead there now, and has an upset here. He's framed his election against Rahm!

Ohio-- This is the second best shot for a Sanders upset, but I will stick with Clinton. The economy is improving in the state (which is also helping Kasich).

Missouri-- Sanders third best state, but unlikely. But yes, a lot of unrest that could benefit Sanders.

NC, FL-- Clinton will win these two southern states (which seems like her only stronghold) easily.

Next week, comes the Arizona primary. Wow, the site of Trump's wall (at least partially). That should be very hot in more ways than just the weather.