Senate & House expectations
by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Sep 09, 2010 at 01:56:03 PM EDT
Here are some potential narratives that we will see with the Senate elections:
Democrats are expected to maintain control, losing between 6-8 seats. Except for Dick Morris, who now has up to 14 Dem Senate seats on the flip list. Uh, no way. If it goes over 9, its all about Joe. If its 10 or above, then its gone.
The Republican gains. There are three groups of potential Republicans:
Tea Party: Nevada’s Sharron Angle, Alaska’s Joe Miller, Kentucky’s Rand Paul, Colorado’s Ken Buck, Utah’s Mike Lee, Florida’s Marco Rubio, and Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin.
Establishment: Reps. Mike Castle of Delaware, John Boozman of Arkansas, Mark Kirk of Illinois, Dan Coats in Indiana, Roy Blunt in Missouri and Rob Portman of Ohio,
Mixed: Dino Rossi of Washington, Carly Fiorna of California, Linda McMahon of Connecticut, John Raese of West Virginia
Already, this Tea Party vs Establishment is becoming part of the narrative. Where they actually make the gains is going to determine the story.
Here is a potential narrative that we will see with the House elections:
I have been noticing something peculiar that perhaps others have too. Am not sure if you recall, but Chris Bowers did some posts about how, if a wave election came, then the most likely losers would be blue dog Dems. However, in the campaigns I am watching, it is the blue dog, moderate dems that can point to something they voted against (bailouts, stimulus, HCR...) that may wind up with appeal to this years swing Independent voters.
Meanwhile, I am seeing some 'bubble' incumbent solid vote Dems, who haven't had a competitive race since the netroots began, that could wind up being washed ashore because they voted for everything, have no middle appeal, and are not running a modern-day campaign.
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