GOP '12 hopefuls

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 04:05:06 PM EDT

This is true:

The 2012 presidential race will begin Nov. 3, the day after this fall's congressional election.

For the Dems:

The other, predictable question about Democratic strategy in 2012 is whether the president will dump his vice president from the ticket—in this case, dropping Joe Biden in favor of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. But this is a recurring parlor game, and usually turns out to be a silly one.

First, I'm not 100% convinced that Obama will run again in 2012. If '10 happens like we now think, having a Republican-controlled Congress would open that question in his mind. Second, Clinton isn't who he would want there. Someone like Bloomberg makes much more sense as VP (not saying it doesn't have baggage just that its who he'd want). Third, the idea that somone is going to challenge Obama is still quite far-fetched.

For the GOP. Here's how I would rank the current GOP (with an eye toward Iowa):

Romney-- Frontrunner, but healthcare in MA is going to put him on the defensive too much. He should skip Iowa. Could be like Kerry in '04 and McCain in '08, and fade away alot only to resurface.

Gignrich-- Gonna get a lot of flirtation from voters. Big potential for leading in early polls. But not seen as electable. Fades in the end.

Palin-- Most likely to pull a Cuomo and not run, teasing it out, until the end.

Huckabee-- Not building anything, not the darkhorse, no momentum. All translates into not running.

Pawlenty-- Darkhorse status, good midwestern.Very good odds to win Iowa if Romney skips and Huckabee doesn't run.

Santorum-- I cannot believe this is possible. I guess if Huckabee, Beck and Palin don't run, Theocons have to have somewhere to go in Iowa.

Thune-- He voted for TARP. That's going to be an achilles heel if he starts out.

Daniels-- When I saw Daniels referred to as "diminutive" in the article above, it brought to mind the early criticism of Dean. In the small settings of Iowa caucuses, Daniels is going to do very well.

Johnson-- Not mentioned in the article, but if Ron Paul doesn't win, then Johnson has the anti-war, pro-pot, libertarian voters as a base; plus a lot of potential soft Dem/Indy crossover appeal in caucuses.

Mr Millionaire-- They've dropped in quite successfully in a number of GOP primaries this cycle. Businessman not part of the political establishment. I would look for someone to do this in Iowa and could be pretty successful in getting wildfire-like support.

UPDATE: Barbour. How could I forget. Well, to me it rings like Biden or Dodd did, in 2008. Nationally, he has not a shot, but would get a lot of money, fwiw.

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21 Comments

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Why do people keep saying they are not entirely sure Obama

will run again?  I can not imagine he would not run for a second term.  It's not common.  And, Obama loves campaigning a lot more than governing. 

I shudder to think he'd run with Bloomberg, but I think you may have something there.

by bookgrl 2010-09-07 05:54PM | 1 recs
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Bloomberg isn't about to be anyone's #2

After starting a multi-billion dollar financial empire, it's no coincidence that his first foray into politics was in a Chief Executive role. I don't see him as a legislator and/or VP, and probably not in the Cabinet. Maybe as Sec'y of Treasury, but nothing else.

Biden has been a court jester, albeit a loyal one. Nobody really takes him seriously, especially after his being Ambassador for the Recovery Summer. He's basically a decent man, and doesn't deserve to end his career this way.

If Obama insists on continuing come 2012, he probably should pick Hillary. Keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer.....

 

by BJJ Fighter 2010-09-07 05:59PM | 1 recs
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Hard to believe you didn't mention the BIG 800 pound Gorilla

Sure, Sure, the Republicraps friends of mine say they will never ever ever vote for another B-U-S-H but hold on. What you have listed in your story is GOP Gridlock and that is a perfect setting for the JEB BUSH / Rove Team. They were/are probably waiting out for Jeb to come back in 2016 and SAVE us from high taxes, war, welfare moms, illegals, etc. but Jeb/Rove now may see an opening for 2012. 

The Bush/Rove machine is already spending millions to resurrect the image of George Bush. GW's New book is coming out soon, there will be TV shows, book signings, etc. More and more you hear the lies that HE really did win in Iraq with his lame tactics and so on for months and months and that all Obama does is hog the credit for the good stuff Bush did. Don't forget how good the GOP is at re-writing history i.e. Jimmy Carter caused the big recession of 1980, Clinton was responsible for the Crash in 2008, FDR knew that Pearl Harbor would be attacked--same old pack of GOP lies all of it.

Then we get to late September in 2011 and lo and behold the Bush Royal Family has decided that they need to get back in power to protect themselves and their other billionaire friends from the unwashed masses at the palace gates.  

Don't laugh. I think Jeb is the logical choice for the Republicans. Big internal fights will go on for months with those people you discussed hammering each other while Jebbie stays quietly on his Carribean Island biding his time. All the big dogs in the party structure will tire of the fighting knowing that its only leading to a big Obama win.

But you can mark this down--if Obama doesn't run---Jeb Bush will be the GOP nominee by a big margin....

The Democrats are in DEEP CA-CA my friends. The Royal Bush family is hard as Marine Drill Instructors when they get their giant political machine running--a long time ago they became convinced that it is them and not the Kennedy's that are destined to rule over us......

These people do not let anything or anyone stand in their way--just ask Saddam or the 1 million dead Iraqis who didn't commit any crime except they were living over the 500 billion barrels of oil in Iraq ground--to the Bushs the deaths of these people and thousands of our troops is just collateral damage when all that oil is to be had for Bush big oil buddies. After all God Save the King (George, or Jeb, or which ever Bush cousin happens to rule us).

 

by hddun2008 2010-09-07 10:39PM | 1 recs
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"hoping" again

Lets face it, people are already tired of hoping for the better. the American government does not have the political will to be honest with the American people about our financial condition. The politicians will most likely take the easy way out by printing us into hyper-inflation rather than admit their folly and take the responsible action of implementing Greek-style austerity. Either way, it's not going to be pretty.

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by rhea 2010-09-08 06:17AM | 1 recs
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RE: GOP '12 hopefuls

The GOP might win in 2012 if they get their act together.

 

From UC Berkeley economist Brad Delong:

We are now looking--if nothing else is done--at a significant chance of an unemployment rate above 9% at the end of Obama's term.

Good think for Obama that the Republicans are bat-poop crazy.

by jeopardy 2010-09-08 02:12PM | 0 recs
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RE: GOP '12 hopefuls

uggg, "thing" not "think"

I really need to start proofreading my comments before posting them.

by jeopardy 2010-09-08 03:13PM | 0 recs
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RE: GOP '12 hopefuls

Uh, Obama hasa 50 percent job approval, according to the latelst polls and he has been trending steadily upward over the last month.

 

Sorry to disturb MyGloom&Doom with that unfortunate fact. You may now return to your pity party.

by spirowasright 2010-09-08 02:36PM | 0 recs
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As usual, you're wrong

As to "unfortunate facts", your facts are not only unfortunate, they're incorrect....which I guess means that they're not facts. Only one poll, CNN/Opinion Research, has Obama at 50%. The most recent RCP average on Presidential Approval is at 45.1% approval, 50.3 disapproval; read it and weep:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

In fact, the CNN poll is an outlier; USA Today Gallup is at 43%, and Ras has him at 41%---a record low. The highest of any other poll in the survey is 46%.

Next time you start quoting "polls", get it right. And cut with the bs about how we're all having a pity party. I and others here at myDD had Obama pegged as a world class loser before the first vote was cast in the Iowa caucuses. We're feeling vindicated----which has nothing to do with whining or self-pity.

 

by BJJ Fighter 2010-09-09 12:26PM | 0 recs
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RE: GOP '12 hopefuls

Oh, and one other thing.

If Obama doesn't run, then who?

If all you Kent clones decide to primary him, again, with whom?

by spirowasright 2010-09-08 02:58PM | 0 recs
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Anybody

Ill vote for a Republican before I vote for this idiot again.  What he is doing to the Democratic party is criminal and I will never forgive him.

I cant wait to see him lose in 2012. 

Another four years of Obama is what will finally kill the Democratic party off for good.

by Kent 2010-09-08 07:38PM | 0 recs
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RE: Anybody

Shove it, Kent.Just what did Obama do to you that wwas so terrible, anyway?

by spirowasright 2010-09-09 01:38AM | 0 recs
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Secretary of State Clinton

Hillary is already off the reservation; yesterday she stated that Obama's debt load is a threat to our National Security:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdpuUQPPo9Y

She is going rogue, and like everyone else who's getting off this sinking ship (Orszag, Romer, Emmanuel) will probably leave after the first the year to begin fund raising.

Poor Obama---such is the life of an incredible shrinking President.

 

by BJJ Fighter 2010-09-09 12:38PM | 0 recs
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RE: Secretary of State Clinton

Obama has said much the same regarding the debt. Clinton is firmly on message. But what ever happened to the deficits don't matter mantra of the Reagan-Cheney-Bush years?

by vecky 2010-09-09 12:52PM | 0 recs
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RE: Secretary of State Clinton

And just how interested is the SOS in primarying the POTUS?

Outside of your wet dreams, of course.

by spirowasright 2010-09-09 05:12PM | 0 recs
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Ill even take an Ed Rendell

At least he understands politics and wouldnt destroy the Democratic party. 

by Kent 2010-09-08 07:40PM | 0 recs
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RE: Ill even take an Ed Rendell

And just how interested is Gov. Rendell in challengingn the President?

Outside of your hateful attitude twords Mr. Obama, of course.

by spirowasright 2010-09-09 05:13PM | 0 recs
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60, 70, 99....

How many seats will the Dems lose?  If it's more than 50, expect a lot more of running away from Obama from the Dems.  There's no one to primary Obama, however.

Actually, I think some of the Blue Dogs will do better than expected, with many of them retaining their seats.  I really think there's a part of the Democratic party comfortable with divided government. 

by esconded 2010-09-08 09:08PM | 0 recs
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RE: 60, 70, 99....

I'm getting that same sense-- that of the blue dogs. They are running some good campaigns. It may be that the real surprises are that we keep some of the close seats, but lose among those that were loyalists.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-09-09 01:24PM | 0 recs
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Id rather have a GOP President and Dem Congress

With a Dem President, we are always looking over our shoulders and have no chance at a Dem majority in Congress.

With a Dem Congress, at least we have power over domestic issues and dont have a President like  Obama undermining our party all of the time. 

by Kent 2010-09-08 11:01PM | 0 recs
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RE: Id rather have a GOP President and Dem Congress

Of course you would. Then you could gripe all the time and not be held accountable for anything, basically the same candy-butt system we had from Ike to Reagan. Your party (well, I think they're your party) could suffer from the terminal in too longs forever and not face the wrath of the voters.

Perfect strategy for a loser. Right, Kent?

by spirowasright 2010-09-09 02:52AM | 0 recs
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RE: Id rather have a GOP President and Dem Congress

Being in power and actually doing something is not easy. Far better to sit on the sidelines and gripe.

by vecky 2010-09-09 12:53PM | 0 recs

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