Would predict right now: US Senate toss-ups
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 12:44:27 AM EDT
I learned a lesson in 2002, about being in the prediction business: Do not confuse what one desires with what one can most objectively predict.
Since then, being in the Senate prediction, I've compiled a string. That includes 2006 and 2008 (my firm having a helping hand with fifteen of those winning campaigns), when it felt nice to be exactly right about the gains; and off by a digit in the MA Senate '10 special, when it wasn't so fun.
Not to say that streak continues all through '10, but it won't end because I'm being wishful rather than predictive. And besides, I'm off building technology for a dozen statewide campaigns in Brazil, without any ties to any of the Senate campaigns this cycle. The least I can do is light a fire under some fellow Dem hacks out hauling for these under-water campaigns this cycle.
As of today, two months out -- time (but not a lot) -- here are the toss-ups in the Senate and the current prediction (with shallow twitteresque commentary included):
Rossi over Murray. Probably the poorest run Dem incumbent strategy to date.
Kirk over Giannoulias. Two real tankers. The thinking behind this being that money can more easily prop Kirk's numbers.
Boxer over Fiorina. Have seen a big turnaround here in urgency by Dems; wouldn't bet on Jerry yet though.
Reid over Angle. Still believe Reid's anti-fusillade against Angle needs something to follow, but now over 48 (v impressive).
Rand over Conway. Pitiful polling for an anti-drug message that tar-babied the Dem off on a tangent.
Bluementhal over McMahon. This is closer than you think.
Miller over McAdams. Ditto. Having done a few fishing boat summers out of Sitka.... ah, well, will the DSCC have any money for this?
Vitter over Melancon. Just kidding, its not really on this list.
Boozeman over Lincoln. Ditto. Remember Bill Halter, one of the best-- also the lone Senate race webstrong worked with this cycle.
Wyden over Huffman. Ditto-ditto. But loved how Ron got seriously on the ball with helping Kitz.
Feingold over Johnson. Not a tougher smarter incumbent in the land than Russ. Being outspent and still on top (Obama's visit may change this...).
Ayotte over Hodes. But I wouldn't bet on Ayotte being the 9/14 nominee.
Rubio over et. al. Don't see how Meeks and Crist do anything but split the opposition at this point.
Blunt over Carnahan. A race where Obama's mosquela pet peeve did real damage to a successful Bailout Blunt message.
Burr over Marshall. Its close, yea, but no one in DC believes that the DS will help with money; pity, cause her message rocks.
Buck over Bennet. The Gov race there being a real lol'er, this could prove fluid, but Bennet's incumbent numbers to date are rotten.
Castle over Coons. Quite a rip-down in the GOP primary of the Tea Party by the establishment there in DE.
Coats over Ellsworth. The DC lobbyist benefiting from anti-establishment fever is one seriously F'd up scenario.
Portman over Fisher. Ohio starting to look really really ugly-- Obama will likely come around too for '12 noise, making '10 worse.
Toomey over Sestak. Throwing Spector overboard was a really stupid Prog-Dem primary move-- he knew how to beat a Republican.
Manchin over Raese. Huh, are you surprised to see WV on this list? It will be close.
OK, tally it up.
Comes out to too many Democratic US Senate losses. There are plenty of races up above that will be decided by less than 3 percent come election day-- maybe as many as 11. Looking at the past 2 months and I have three of the above races that have flipped (Boxer, Ried, Rubio) in my odds to now be favored. I'd make the case, in a longer post, that there are eight others above that could flip too.
Let us discuss this with the solemnity it deserves.
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