The pundits say...
by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 08:58:36 AM EDT
I took a journey through punditland this morning for the latest on their forecasts for the GE:
Before getting to the guys who just want to be right, there's:
SSP's prediction that the Democrats will only lose a net of 5 seats for sure, and another 40 Democratic seats are toss-ups-- split those, and you have a projection of losing 25 seats.
Dick Morris is on the other side, predicting that the GOP gain will break the all-time record set back in 1922 when the Democrats gained 74 seats, saying that the Democrats could lose 80 seats.
Nate Silver is riding a bit of a down streak, having bungled the run-up to the MA special Senate election, and his 538 numbers being way off on the UK results. Silver has the Democrats losing a net of 39 seats for sure, and another net of 21 that's even, so that makes 50; then another 17 at about a third, so that puts him at about 55 seats.
Charlie Cook is likely to update soon, but currently has a GOP gain of 40 seats set (from the middle of Sept).
...for most races, the die will be cast around the beginning of October. Either the early ads changed opinion or they didn’t. And that is why the last month of most campaigns is actually less decisive than you may think it is.
The [Cuba missle] crisis itself covered much of the latter half of October 1962 and froze the midterm campaign in its tracks as the world’s two superpowers stood eyeball to eyeball. It was the ultimate test of strength and judgment for the young president, John F. Kennedy. And he passed it.
The Soviets backed down. The president’s popularity soared. And his Democratic colleagues in Congress, many of whom were bracing for significant midterm election losses, saw their numbers stay virtually unchanged on Election Day. The Democrats lost only four seats in the House, while gaining a handful of seats in the Senate – a far cry from the heavy losses that the president’s party has usually sustained in midterm elections.
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