5 weeks

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 09:05:42 PM EDT

Well, this is a first I believe. A campaign using TMZ to push out damage control (Meg). Jerry Brown being elected Gov again-- pinch me.

There are rumbles that part of the post-election repurcusions will be that Pelosi is outsted as Speaker, even if Democrats do maintain control of the House by a slim margin. if Democrats do lose the House, Steny Hoyer thinks he has the votes to become minority leader.

The latest Grayson poll sucks. Its still close, high 36-43, but not where an incumbent wants to be at this point.  The Taliban Dan ad came after these poll results. That the campaign is tring to shake up the race is a good thing.

OK, say the House loses are greater than the number I pulled out a while ago-- 50 seats. Like into the 70's.

In the Senate, the latest look at the numbers reveals a lot of changes since the last look.

Everyone expects Republicans to win a lot of Senate seats. Boxer however looks a lot safer, so does Murray in WA. However, looks like WV is slipping away. The tally right now of the polls shows a gain of 8 seats by Republicans. That would leave the Democrats at 51. Right on the edge is NV. The next seat on the edge now is CT.

If the Democrats are at 50 seats, Lieberman will flip to the GOP.

Its a very fascinating Gov race in MN. The Independence Party candidate is surging, as the Tea Party took over the Republican primary. Dayton, the Dem, is well in the lead now, but if the IP's Horner overtakes Emmer, he could win.

Cook Co. Sheriff Tom Dart is emerging as the CW opponent of Emanuel:

Chicago politicos are unsure if anyone has what it takes to beat Emanuel, a campaigner of mythical status, but to a person, most believe he is vulnerable. He may even face challenges based on his actions as chief of staff, including the failure to pass immigration reform and his well-known revulsion for organized progressives.

Rahm's going to get wallopped.

This is a good deep poll (NBC/WSJ) to gaze at a pdf for a while... but things have been pretty baked since last Dec to now. Here's what a majority of the poll respondents want at an election outcome:

The influence of special interests is reduced: 70%
 
New people with few ties to the political process are elected: 69%
 
The Tea Party influences the Republican Party to become more conservative on fiscal issues: 50%
 
The Republicans take over the majority in Congress: 52%
 
The health care reform plan that was passed earlier this year is repealed: 51%

Most congressional representatives are defeated: 48%

OK, that last one's not quite a majority.

 

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Comments

14 Comments

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We would never recover from a loss of 70 seats

That would put Republicans at a towering 249-186 majority, bigger than at any point since before the Great Depression.  If its any more than 50, I think Obama is forced out of office by Democrats. 

He wrecked the Democratic party.

He should have squeezed Ben Bernanke to print money until the unemployment fell below 8% last year and if he didnt, replace him with someone who would.

Barack Obama is our Herbert Hoover.  Hoover gave Democrats a lock on national politics for two generations.  Will Obama do the same for Republicans?

by Kent 2010-09-29 09:24PM | 0 recs
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RE: We would never recover from a loss of 70 seats

At this point, Obama needs to stay off the campaign trail; he is just making a bad situation worse. He went to Wisconsin earlier this week, and now Feingold is 12 points behind Ron Johnson, the widest margin of the race so far (see my comment below).

At this point, people are outraged about the job picture and a weakening economy that this President chose to ignore. Obama just needs to make himself scarce and go away.

 

by BJJ Fighter 2010-10-01 12:31AM | 0 recs
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The House

1.  I don't think the Dems will lose 70 seats, 50 is more likely.  Actually, I think there's a chance (7-10%) the Dems will lose the Senate but hold the House.

2.  Steny Hoyer would be a poor (and passive) leader of a likely Democratic minority.  Will he stand up and fight against a government shutdown?

3.  Progressives are going to have to have their own plan for controlling government spending--otherwise they will be shut out for a long time.

by esconded 2010-09-29 10:47PM | 1 recs
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RE: The House

Someone will have to challenge Hoyer.  I think Hoyer is too likely to work with Republicans rather than fight and try to win back the majority.  We need someone like Tim Ryan or Anthony Weiner as minority leader. 

by Kent 2010-09-29 10:53PM | 1 recs
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The House

The Dems will keep both the house and senate with aggressive campaigning. I wouldn't be surprised to see the numbers stay relatively the same as now after the election with aggressive campaigning as suggested by Rachel Maddow. That is, Democrats should commit politics by driving wedge issues with the radically conservatives that are competing against.

 

I throw my lot with Democrats, since it's not the 80's anymore. Even if the republicans are successful, they will not hold on to the chambers much longer since the demographics.

If Democrats would stop being wimps and, at least, try to put up clear argument, we can still have both chambers with clear majorities. Don't count the pessimism chickens before they hatch.

 

by Check077 2010-09-29 11:36PM | 0 recs
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RE: The House

I wish I could share your optimism; but there is no evidence---empirical or otherwise---to warrant it. Hell, wait until the September unemployment numbers come out next Friday (10/7). This is only going to get worse.

 

by BJJ Fighter 2010-10-01 12:35AM | 0 recs
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The house or be a mouse...

The Dems will keep both the house and senate with aggressive campaigning. I wouldn't be surprised to see the numbers stay relatively the same as now after the election with aggressive campaigning. As suggested by Rachel Maddow, the Democrats should commit politics by driving and stressing wedge issues toward the electorate. This would cause this current group of ultra-radical conservatives to play defense instead engaging in their current offense strategy.

 

I throw my lot with the Democrats, since it's not the 80's anymore. Even if the republicans are successful, they will not hold on to the chambers much longer since the demographics. The silent majority's impact is dwindling.

If Democrats would stop being wimps and, at least, try to put up a clear argument, we could still keep both chambers with clear majorities. Don't count the pessimism chickens before they hatch.

by Check077 2010-09-29 11:43PM | 0 recs
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Just out from Ras on WI Senate: Johnson 54%, Feingold 42%

Rasmussen has changed the Wisconsin Senate race from toss-up to leans Republican. The poll was conducted on Sept. 29th, AFTER Obama's visit to the state.....showing once again what a negative impact this President has on our candidates.

Barack Obama isn't the solution; Barack Obama is the problem. WE THE PEOPLE are the solution! Hopefully, this man will do the honorable thing and step aside in 2012, in time for the Clintons to return and clean up his mess.

 

by BJJ Fighter 2010-09-30 02:24PM | 0 recs
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RE: Just out from Ras on WI Senate: Johnson 54%, Feingold 42%

I think he may see the writing on the wall. There's a chance of that happening esp with the Clinton whispers happening.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-09-30 02:47PM | 0 recs
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Also just out from Rasmussen this AM: Rossi leads Murray

I disagree with your assessment that "Murray looks a lot safer...." Rasmussen has a new poll out this morning which shows the race to be a virtual tie, with Rossi ahead by one point:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/washington/election_2010_washington_senate

This is one more race where Obama is a big drag on Democratic candidates, although I'll cut him some slack on this one. Murray is as dumb as a box of rocks, and was bound to lose as soon as a presentable candidate came along.

 

by BJJ Fighter 2010-09-30 02:33PM | 0 recs
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Here's the link on the Wisconsin Senate situation: largest lead yet for Johnson over Feingold

I meant to include this in my previous comment---the situation in Wisconsin is dire, as this is the largest lead to date for Johnson over Feingold:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/election_2010_wisconsin_senate

This is really disturbing, as Feingold is probably one of the most decent and honorable individuals to ever serve in the United States Senate. That he should be taken out in this tsunami caused by a bumbling and incompetent President is unforgivable.

 

by BJJ Fighter 2010-09-30 02:40PM | 0 recs
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RE: Here's the link on the Wisconsin Senate situation: largest lead yet for Johnson over Feingold

It's Rasmussen, the polling arm of the Republican party.

Let's see some other polls.

by Hugh Gitlin 2010-09-30 11:35PM | 0 recs
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You asked for it......

The RCP average has it at +9.6, advantage Johnson:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_feingold_vs_johnson-1577.html

The closest of the three polls sampled is CNN/Time, which has it at +6, Johnson. PPP isn't very encouraging either, I'm afraid.

Want some more?

 

by BJJ Fighter 2010-10-01 12:26AM | 0 recs
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Obama: the gift that keeps on giving

Rasmussen reports this AM that the number of self-identified Democrats is now at a record low, for the 2nd straight month:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends

The Democratic party cannot stand much more of the damage that Obama is inflicting upon us. We will be losing decent people like Russ Feingold and others because of this man's incompetence.

 

by BJJ Fighter 2010-10-01 04:24PM | 0 recs

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