GOP's Nonexistent Generic Ballot Lead

When Gallup released polling last week showing the Republicans jumping to their largest ever lead in the organization's generic congressional ballot polling -- a 49 percent to 43 percent advantage -- the talking heads were jumping all over each other in an effort to proclaim the nearing end for the Democratic majorities in Congress. Except, as it turns out, that polling was a mere blip, with the latest data showing a return to virtually the exact same numbers that had been holding strong in previous polling: a virtual tie between the two parties, at 46 percent apiece.

Gallup isn't the only pollster to find the race for Congress in 2010 continuing to sit where it has for a long time. Today marks the release of the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, which shows the Democrats edging out the Republicans by a 47 percent to 44 percent margin -- more or less the same spread that has been seen since March.

But I'm sure this is all great news for the GOP...

Tags: Generic Congressional Ballot, House 2010, polling (all tags)



No doubt skewed by the latest Foxmussen poll

RasFoxmussen exists to give the teabaggers hope. He overpolls GOPers and underpolls Democrats, indies, the young, the non-white, and anyone else outside the pale and elderly Fox News demographic. When the election gets close he'll skew back, but in the meantime it's poll-porn for the Fox crowd.

by Spiffarino 2010-06-08 02:10PM | 0 recs
my biggest worry

is the enthusiasm gap (if it persists). We may be slightly ahead in the generic ballot according to polls, but if we can't get our people out, they could still take back the House.

by desmoinesdem 2010-06-08 03:42PM | 0 recs
RE: my biggest worry

The difference between Gallup and Rasmussen (+1 vs. -9) could be an indicator of the enthusiam gap.  Right now it's huge (-25 seats vs. -80 seats).  We'll see after Labor Day when LVs will be used by both pollsters.

by esconded 2010-06-08 04:55PM | 0 recs
C'mon everybody!

Blog HARDER!!!!

by QTG 2010-06-08 03:54PM | 0 recs


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