2012 Convention final four

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 09:46:01 PM EDT

The Republicans have already chosen Tampa Bay for their 2012 convention. The last time I looked at this, the cities being mentioned were Charlotte, Phoenix, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Philadelphia, and St. Louis.

The final four have been selected: St. Louis, Charlotte, Minneapolis and Cleveland.

Minneapolis is not a shocker, as it was a contender in previous years, but Cleveland is sorta out of the blue. I'll put a poll up in the extended thread for users to choose. Last time St. Louis won a plurality, with Charlotte the runner-up.

These are all good choices. In terms of wanting to hang out in a city, I'd choose St. Louis far ahead of the others here. In terms of importance to the election, MO and NC might not even be competitive, whereas we know OH will be, and has more EV's than does MN. I still think Charlotte is the favorite, but one of these midwest states, MO, MN, or OH could wind up the winner if there's a second or third ballot (I forget the way this works, but believe its a committee vote for a majority), especially if Union concerns mount an obstacle for Charlotte.

I'm starting to believe that 2012 is going to one of those "whomever takes OH & FL is the winner" elections. The GOP is mounting up in FL, and it'd be a smart choice for the DNC to mount in OH; which may be a strategic reason Cleveland has made the cut out of the blue.

Take the poll below:

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Convention location doesn't matter

Looking at convention sites over the years, name one that's helped a presidential candidate. You can't.

Looking at 2012, the winner will take at least two of FL, OH and VA.
Ohio is losing EVs, so it's importance will be diminishing slightly. Also, Virgina will be a battleground state. While strategically, Cleveland makes sense, it's not going improve the Democrats' chances in Ohio, just as Tampa isn't going to have much bearing on the GOP's chances in Florida. Come to think of it, Obama will need OH and VA to win reelection in 2012, as Florida may move back to the GOP.

But where the convention is held will make little difference.

by esconded 2010-06-30 10:00PM | 0 recs

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RE: Convention location doesn't matter

I think having our convention in Colorado helped us a lot in 2008. They maximized the mass social networking potential of the event, and it defiantely helped us in CO.

by LordMike 2010-06-30 10:37PM | 0 recs

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I doubt Obama can win Virginia again

That state has turned into a solid GOP state again. Just look what happened in the 2009 governors race and in the House of Delegates races where Democrats lost many solidly Democratic NOVA districts. His approval ratings are also way below the national average there. Just winning the Kerry states plus Ohio isnt going to do it this time. He has to win New Mexico and Ohio and hold every Kerry state, including Michigan, whose economy will still be terrible in 2012 and where Romney will make a very strong play.

by Kent 2010-07-01 12:51AM | 0 recs

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Cleveland would be great!!!

I remember that the GOP thought about having their convention in C-town... made me want to wretch!

The facilities would be great! The Q arena is top notch, but there is also the Wolstein Center, the IX Center and Cleveland Browns Stadium if Obama wants to do what he did in Colorado again. There will be a casino in town to help entertain the visitors, too. I almost forgot about the new convention center being built as well.

The big question is whether there is enough hotel space for the conventioneers. That's always been a problem in Cleveland. Event the smallest conventions book up hotel space for miles around. There may be more hotel space created when the new convention center opens.

One crazy thought would be to open up the new dorms at Cleveland State University. They can start classes one week late, if necessary.

The city could sure use the boost!

by LordMike 2010-06-30 10:42PM | 0 recs

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The Republicans continue to be stupid

Tampa in August. It's swell if you like 90-degree, 90-percent-humidity days with an almost 100% chance of thunderstorms, plus smack dab in the middle of hurricane season.

I guarantee you a side story in Tampa 2012 will be the number of convention delegates passing out. Unless there's a hurricane. Then there'll be no side stories. The choice of a convention city is not a slam-dunk winning situation. You can get burned badly by negative publicity if the choice is wrong, which I suspect is quite possible in Tampa. Imagine the pictures of the septuagenarian delegates on stretchers in the hospitals with heat stroke. The usual second-guessing ("What were they thinking?") will set in.

What you want in a convention city is lots of hotel rooms and good mass transit, especially for the Democrats, who have twice the number of delegates than the Republicans. Cleveland is probably better than Charlotte, and Charlotte Augusts can get pretty hot (as can Cleveland, but less probable continuous heat). Sad to say, but the usual suspects (New York, San Francisco, Chicago) are the logistical best choices.

by GreginFL 2010-07-01 01:14AM | 0 recs