UK change: 2005 to 2010

PoliticalBetting put a graph that is instructive for the change that has happened in the UK from 5/5/5 to 5/5/10 with relation to support of the political parties:

For Scotland:

These show very little change from the 2005 election – the Conservatives are up 1, Labour down 2, the Liberal Democrats down 1 and the SNP up 3. If there was a uniform swing across Scotland on Thursday, it would result in only two seats changing hands – the SNP gaining Ochil and South Perthshire, and the Liberal Democrats gaining Edinburgh South.

The UK polling was done over the past week, with a very large sample. Barring a major shift on the last few days before the election tomorrow, this shows where the battlegrounds lay.

The Conservatives are ahead, but are they going to get 326 seats to avoid a humg parliament?  Very doubtful; the betting is against it happening. The Conservatives have been trying to position themselves as the agents of change, recruiting candidates of color: Like a conjuror, we’ll get more applause if the audience cannot see exactly how the trick is performed; recruiting Obama campaign spinster Anita Dunn to help him out with debates (didn't exactly work out); to being the "Vote For Change" video candidate where they make a good case of leaving Labour but not of going Torie. Cameron makes one cynical of politics.

The Guardian announced Nick Clegg as the candidate of change. The Lib Dems are the alternative to Labour.

I'd break down the expectations for the Liberal Democrats such:

Below 80: A crushing blow to their best chance in decades.

80 - 100: Moderately well; better than '05 but not beyond what's now expected.

100 - 120: A big win for Clegg that results in the Lib Dems shaking up the system.

Above 120: London lights for the Lib Dems, surpassing expectations and are the story.

One other Lib Dem blogger I've been reading is Stephan Tall, who has an interesting read on the tactical voting that might, or might not occur. Support has fallen a bit for the Lib Dems over the past week. It should be a wild couple of weeks after the election tomorrow, with everything pointing toward a hung parliament.

 

 

Tags: UK GE, 2010 (all tags)

Comments

3 Comments

I think LibDems will be disappointed

They seem to have peaked a couple of weeks too early. I think it was a mistake for Clegg to indicate that he might try to form a government with Consevatives--Labour has been pushing the idea that a vote for the LibDems is a vote for Cameron as prime minister.

That said, it is hard to convey how incredible it is for the Guardian to have endorsed the LibDems. The Guardian has historically been a huge institutional support for Labour.

by desmoinesdem 2010-05-05 11:07AM | 1 recs
RE: I think LibDems will be disappointed

Was about to post much the same thing before I read this comment. 

We seem to be back to where we were before the debates, wondering if the Tories will have a majority or not (with Lib Dems making gains in the 20ish seat range), instead of where we were at the Lib Dem peak with them making a breakthrough in vote share and wondering if Labour or the Tories will be the biggest party (and both way to far from a majority to just cling to a minority gov't).

Not *all* polls are showing this movement, but too many are to ignore.  Plus it looks to me like the poll-of-polls is a lagging indicator here.

Too bad: the best hope for the reformist left in Britian is a change in the voting system, and that could only come is the Lib Dems are in a very good bargaining position.  Even then it would be a long way from a foregone conclusion.

The other real question is the undecideds, who are reportedly a much larger share of the electorate than normal at this late stage.  I think it's anyone's guess as to how they will break -- very plausible cases can be made in all directions.

At any rate, from a purely elections-as-drama point of view, tomorrow afternoon (California time) should be highly engaging.  Should be on C-SPAN from 4:55pm EDT / 1:55pm PDT.  Hopefully C-SPAN1.  If you've never watched the BBC's election night coverage, you are in for a treat -- much more entertaining than ours over here.

by tilthouse 2010-05-05 02:43PM | 0 recs
RE: I think LibDems will be disappointed

Yea, sure is, thanks for mentioning BBC.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-05-05 06:06PM | 0 recs

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