House race handicapping thread

by desmoinesdem, Thu Apr 01, 2010 at 05:39:02 PM EDT

Swing State Project posted its initial competitive House ratings chart yesterday. On one level, the chart is terrifying, because Democrats hold so many more of the seats in play than Republicans do. On the other hand, I found the chart a bit reassuring, in that Republicans would have to win about two-thirds of the tossup seats and about one-third of the "lean Democrat" seats in order to take back the House majority. That is a tall order when the National Republican Congressional Committee has so much less cash on hand than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and the Republican National Committee is spending like there's no election in seven months. Corporate-funded PACs and Republican 527s will spend money on behalf of many GOP candidates, but I still think the cash-strapped NRCC will end up leaving seats on the table.

Swing State Project commenters have been debating prospects for various House races in this thread. Click over to read the chart, then come back and share your thoughts or predictions about any of the competitive House races.

I'll get the ball rolling by talking about Iowa's third district, where seven Republican challengers are competing for the right to face seven-term incumbent Leonard Boswell. I haven't seen any public or internal polling on this race. Swing State Project's "lean D" rating is defensible, because Boswell underperformed the top of the Democratic ticket in 2006 and 2008. However, Boswell is continuing to raise money while the winner of the GOP primary will probably be broke. Many people on the ground believe State Senator Brad Zaun will beat the insiders' favorite Jim Gibbons in that primary, which could put the NRCC off making big play for this district. Even if Gibbons wins the primary, I doubt the NRCC will spend serious money here. Iowa is losing a district after the 2010 census, and the winner of the IA-03 election will probably be thrown into the same district as Tom Latham, who currently represents IA-04. So beating Boswell wouldn't deliver a long-term gain for the GOP. Republicans have dozens of targets that look more inviting than this district.

The floor is yours.

Tags: 2010 elections, Congress, House, Leonard Boswell, IA-03 (all tags)

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5 Comments

N1590780102_30031528_6316777
West Virginia District 1

This is going to be an interesting race.  Alan Mollohan has been in Congress for about 27 years.  He has yet to face any real opposition when it comes to re-election campaigns until now.  In 2008 he ran un-opposed for the district seat, but this year he faces a trough of Republicans vying for their nomination as well as a democrat in the primary challenge.

Its really hard to tell even how the primary will go, which makes this race so interesting.  His challenger, Mike Oliverio (a Democrat in the WV State Senate) has a more Conservative track record and expressed timid opposition to the healthcare legislation.

I couldn't find any polls that would help draw a conclusion about West Virginia's feelings in regards to the new healthcare law just passed, however taking from personal experience from talking to people there seems to be pretty mixed opinions on it.

I don't think Oliverio will prove to be a significant enough challenger that a 14 term incumbent like Mollohan would lose to him in the primary, but he may see some challenges before november.

Mollohan has had a lot of ethical issues in regards to earmarking for non-profits and was even ranked in the top 15 most corrupt in congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

An exciting race to be a part of and watch I presume.

by Chuckie Corra 2010-04-01 07:40PM | 0 recs
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Some of these are seats that Democrats are just not going to lose

in any environment.  One is OH-13, which was drawn to be a safe Democratic seat for Sherrod Brown by linking blue collar parts of Akron and Lorrain.  Every Democrat including John Kerry, Al Gore, and Barack Obama won the district by double digits.  Even Michael Dukakis carried the district.  I dont know why this is only rated "Lean Democratic".  Same with MN-01, where Tim Walz is popular and won by an almost two to one margin in 2008.  A good number of these "lean" districts shouldnt even be on this list. 

by Kent 2010-04-02 01:09AM | 0 recs
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RE: Some of these are seats that Democrats are just not going to lose

Several commenters at SSP felt the chart was overall too pessimistic. They'll be updating it later in the year, and I'm sure some seats considered competitive now will fall off.

by desmoinesdem 2010-04-02 08:28AM | 0 recs
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FL-08 (Grayson) is listed as a "Toss Up"?

I'm not sure how they come to that conclusion beyond just believing the "Dems are Doomed" meme.

It's only an R+2 district, in which he won 52-48.  Obama took the district 52-47.  Grayson has been the highest fundraising member in the House, not to mention his willingness to spend his own fortune.  Any GOP candidate that could be considered even remotely serious has run away from this race like the plague - he'll likely be facing a no-name backbencher.  Not only have I not seen any polling showing Grayson in trouble, Grayson released an internal poll in which he was polling better against all potential GOPers in the Republican primary.

FL-24 (Kosmas) on the other hand, that's probably right, and could even be argued to be Lean-R.  It's an R+4 district, she voted for HCR, and she's on the same team as Pres. Obama - who many in the district currently (and wrongly) hate because of the proposed changes at NASA.

by The BBQ Chicken Madness 2010-04-02 07:59AM | 0 recs
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RE: FL-08 (Grayson) is listed as a "Toss Up"?

I agree with you on that one.

by desmoinesdem 2010-04-02 08:31AM | 0 recs

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