Gallup Finds Dramatic Shift: Public Now Favors New Health Law

Now that we turn from political process to legislative reality, the tide really is turning in the Democrats' favor. A new Gallup poll, the first since the House passed health insurance reform Sunday night, finds that Americans support the new law 49-42:

Nearly half of Americans give a thumbs-up to Congress' passage of a healthcare reform bill last weekend, with 49% calling it "a good thing." Republicans and Democrats have polar opposite reactions, with independents evenly split.

...Americans' emotional responses to the bill's passage are more positive than negative -- with 50% enthusiastic or pleased versus 42% angry or disappointed -- and are similar to their general reactions.

This 7 point favorable is quite the about-face from the 20 point opposition found by both Fox News and CNN before the bill actually passed. Gallup's own last poll on the measure, from 3/4-3/7 but with very different wording from this new question, found 3 point opposition.

What's particularly striking is the even support mong Independents. While Gallup reports don't include crosstabs, PPP's most recent approval poll shows Independents disapproving of Obama 50-44, opposing health care 49-40, and supporting Republicans on the generic ballot 44-26. This is a huge swing in Independent support for health care and it will be interesting to see how it registers in the President's approval rating and the generic ballot.

This confirms what progressive pundits have been saying for weeks: it was the process, not the policy, that voters opposed, and now that the mainstream media is actually covering the policy, the tide is turning. If Republicans truly want to run this fall on overturning the ban on not covering childrens' pre-existing conditions, then by all means, let them be our guests. Jim DeMint was right: This was Waterloo. If unemployment dips below 9%, this midterm might not be nearly so bad after all.

Tags: health care reform, 2010 midterms, gallup (all tags)



A little premature to celebrate polling......

I'm of the school that has ALWAYS believed the polling would flip in our favor after reform is signed into law.

But one poll isn't enough to prove or disprove the point.  In particular I wouldn't necessarily have expected this nice a jump THIS quickly......I would have guessed it would take a week or several weeks to sink in with people.

Once other polls start saying the same thing, the point will be proven.

But who knows, maybe I'm wrong on this being premature, and maybe people really are coming around fast?

by DCCyclone 2010-03-24 08:01AM | 0 recs
RE: A little premature to celebrate polling......

To be fair, Gallup had a -3 before, where other polls had a -20. This is a 12 point swing, but for CNN or Fox, a 12 point swing would still be 8 point opposition.

by Nathan Empsall 2010-03-24 09:39AM | 0 recs

USA Today also showed a similar trend in poll numbers.

by Chuckie Corra 2010-03-24 08:33AM | 0 recs
RE: Polls

This is the USA Today poll. USA Today uses Gallup.

by Nathan Empsall 2010-03-24 09:38AM | 0 recs
RE: Polls

Okay, I wasn't sure if they used Gallup or conducted their own polling.

by Chuckie Corra 2010-03-24 11:00AM | 0 recs
A point I have been blogging

from the beginning.

Most of the opposition to this bill from both the left and right has been to a bill that existed only in their own imaginations. But since everyone could tell you who was in the Gang of Six and no one could tell you about the significance of Sec 116 in the House Tri-Committee bill (not a random choice) this discontinuity on substance simply could not be bridged.

We have seen more coverage on what this bill actually would do in the last 48 hours than in any month over the last eight. And people are waking up. Fast. So I am not surprised at the numbers, particularly from the left. Because this bill does not actually deliver people bound hand and foot to the tender mercies of insurers, their ability to jack up prices or deny care are in fact strictly limited under the terms of the bill, something you would never get from the overheated rhetoric coming from some sites on the Left. Including at times this one.

I'll go out on a limb and predict a big swing among Indies over the next couple days. Because the question for the 'Bad Thing' people is going to be 'Which piece?' 'What part of this is Socialism?' and 'Is there really a deep pool of Americans who WANT to be uninsured?' I am uninsured and lots of people I know are uninsured (and chances are that server in your local bar or restaurant is too) and I have never met a person who was happy about that, certainly not one over thirty or who had kids. So I expect opposition to this to melt away in the coming days and weeks, except of course among the haters. Because they really have nothing concrete to point to.

by Bruce Webb 2010-03-24 09:01AM | 2 recs
What Group Will Hate On Children?

When the political pundits realize their miscommunications to the masses have failed; they will try some other way to dissuade folks from feeling positive about this bill.  Certainly, most Americans will feel good about children who have pre-existing conditions will no longer be denied health care.  However, this will have to be one of the main talking points for the Democrats. Republicans bashing children and trying to repeal a bill that directly affects children's lives would be despicable.  The questions to the Republicans voting no on this bill, "Do you want children to die?  Do you want to repeal a law that will take one child's life? Or, are you really pro-life or just pro-birth?"

by Pat Pullar 2010-03-24 11:44AM | 0 recs
More on kids

It is not just the ban on pre-existing conditions for kid coverage that is important. Under this bill there is no cost-sharing for well-baby and well-child care, or for maternity, starting right away. The days of choosing between a $20 co-pay for a routine checkup or vaccination and buying diapers are this close to over. And hopefully so are the instances of clogging up emergency rooms with kids with sniffles. Just make an appointment at Bernie Sander's new Community Health Clinics and you can have that peace of mind that it really is just a cold.

Plus something that I will be blogging on soon. This bill changes the entire dynamic for things like Free Clinics. Maybe that indigent patient is not insured when he walks in the door, a lot of people fall through the cracks. But there is no reason he can't be fixed up with the paperwork to get coverage under Medicaid or through a subsidy on the Exchange for his next visit. The extension of Medicaid eligibility to single adults is HUGE and will totally change the structure of charity care as we know it today. Imagine how you could leverage your resources of that store-front community clinic if you knew you could actually get paid for seeing that homeless guy.

And back to the kids. All of us are familiar with those collection jars in your local store, each attached to some local story about some kid who will die without that operation. How many bake sales and community fundraisers occur ever year because as a society we can't find a way to routinely pay for needed cancer care or corrective operations for kids? Well that little piece of social injustice may have just become a fading memory, as a parent you won't have to hope to catch the eye of some local reporter so as to get your kid's story in print or on the 5 o'clock news. Certainly there will be some kids among that 6% of non-elderly Americans who are projected to remain uninsured, but it should be a pretty small fraction, and if it comes to that fund-raising to pay for an enrollment premium in an Exchange Plan comes at a tiny part of the cost of whatever that needed treatment would be.

Do Republicans really want to confront a campaign flier showing some bald-headed kid cancer-victim with the slogan "Repeal the Bill! And buy a Brownie for Kid's Cancer!!" Kids just should not have to beg for health care.

by Bruce Webb 2010-03-24 01:11PM | 0 recs
Shake up in Oh

I think the race that is going to be defined by the HIR debate is Ohio.  Sherrod Brown who is a main proponent of HIR, clearly shows that Ohioans are clearly concerned about their HIR.

The other except for PA and maybe NH aren't going to be only defined that main issue. And I am looking forward to the debate taking place with the Dems concerning the primary and taking on Bush cabinent official Portman

by olawakandi 2010-03-24 02:16PM | 0 recs


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