Supposedly Endangered House Dem Up 20+ Points
by Jonathan Singer, Sun Feb 28, 2010 at 01:57:07 PM EST
Charlie Cook seems to think it's all but a fait accompli that the Democrats will lose the House of Representatives in November. He might want to tell that to the voters in Alabama's second congressional district, which despite tending to lean about 16 points more Republican than the nation as a whole looks on track to reelect its freshman Democratic Congressman this year by a wide margin.
A new poll conducted for Rep. Bobby Bright's (D-AL) campaign shows that while he may sit in a very vulnerable CD, he starts out in strong shape for re-election.
The survey, conducted by Anzalone-Liszt (D), shows Bright leading Montgomery Councilor Martha Roby (R), AL school board member Stephanie Bell (R) and businessman Rick Barber (R) handily. The survey was conducted 2/8-11, among 500 LVs; It has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The survey was first posted in the Montgomery Advertiser.General Election Matchups Bright 54% Bright 55% Roby 30 Bell 29
This is an internal poll, and there are enough reasons to take such campaign-sponsored surveys with a grain of salt that I need not be too explicit with a word of caution. That said, these aren't the types of numbers that look to be skewed -- and if they were, the National Republican Congressional Committee would already be out with its own numbers showing a radically different outcome. In the absence of such pushback from the Republicans, it's not hard to imagine that the Democrat Bright is in fact leading by a wide margin -- perhaps not 24 percentage points and more, but a wide margin nonetheless -- in the very red district he represents.
And this represents a genuine challenge to the model employed by some of the Beltway prognosticators that says the Democrats have already put themselves in position to lose the House this cycle. If the Republicans can't even be competitive in an R+16 district featuring a freshman Democrat in a race Cook now labels as "a tossup," how, exactly, are they supposed to win back the 40 seats they need to regain a majority in the chamber?