A State of the Union Bounce?

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 03:18:13 PM EST

It's still too soon to gauge whether or not Barack Obama received a lasting bounce from his State of the Union address last week -- but we are beginning to get an indication that he has received a short-term-bounce, at the least.

In Gallup polling in the field from January 25 through 27, the last survey in the field almost entirely before Barack Obama's speech, the President's approval rating stood at 47 percent -- matching an all-time low in the poll -- with 46 percent disapproving. 

Today's numbers from Gallup are significantly more bullish for the President. In polling in the field January 30 through February 1, Barack Obama's approval rating is up a net 8 percentage points from before the State of the Union Address, with 51 percent approving and 42 percent disapproving. 

These numbers are volatile, and yet preliminary. But at this point, it appears that President Obama has seen positive movement out of his speech last week.

Tags: Barack Obama, Approval Rating, State of The Union (all tags)

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16 Comments

Shadow_head_small
It's only a bounce

A bounce is just that - a bounce. i.e: - it's temporary. Eventually the number will fall back to their below 49 % par. I don't know how much further it can fall, or where Obama's final base of support is. Bush's was at around 30%. Obama I would say dosn't have as strong a base as Bush did.

by vecky 2010-02-02 04:51PM | 1 recs
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RE: It's only a bounce

Depends on your definition of "base".

If you mean "people who would follow him to hell and back", then comparing it to the 30% who still approved of GWB by the end is apt.

But if you mean "people who would naturally tend to vote for Obama and the Democrats", then it might be a lot higher.

 

by jeopardy 2010-02-02 06:02PM | 0 recs
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RE: It's only a bounce

I think Obama's base is far lower - maybe 20% or so. He's not a politician which has deep ties to any constituent group or had the time to cultivate such ties. I don't really have an definition of what is a base other than a "yes, he/she is one of us" kinda thing.

by vecky 2010-02-03 04:04AM | 0 recs
97250_45
Obama's base

Pretty much just me, outside of his immediate family of course.

by QTG 2010-02-02 05:29PM | 0 recs
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RE: Obama's base

And me.

by lojasmo 2010-02-02 09:34PM | 0 recs
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RE: Obama's base

and me.

by Hammer1001 2010-02-02 09:51PM | 0 recs
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RE: A State of the Union Bounce?

Obama's approval has gone up again today, now to 51%. This is a sharp increase from 47% on Saturday.

Gallup suspects that the bounce is from the epic smackdown of the Republicans on Saturday, as the increase did not bein until that day, three days after State of the Union.

Also, Gallup notes that the strongest increase in support was from liberals, whose confidence in Obama may have been renewed in part after the State of the Union.

Regardless, Obama needs to keep doing what he's doing. 51% is a pretty good spot to be at in this economy.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-02-02 05:35PM | 1 recs
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I am a liberal

and my confidence in Obama has been renewed since the State of the Union. I am smart enough to know I can't get everything I want, but I want a leader who fight for us and this latest version of Obama is a fighting leader.

I just hope he keeps it up and gives the Senate Democrats hell on Wednesday.

by srliberalguy 2010-02-02 10:46PM | 0 recs
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interesting

Public Policy Polling didn't find a SOTU bounce for Obama:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/health-care-polling.html

by desmoinesdem 2010-02-02 05:39PM | 1 recs
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Even Rasmussen has Obama above water now......

As of today (Tuesday), Rasmussen has Obama at 50-49, the first positive approval by that wingnut outfit in months.

So I think the bounce is real.

I don't expect it to hold unless substantive stuff happens, like unemployment actually going down in this Friday's January report which is unlikely (I'm guessing it goes up to 10.1 based on bad January unemployment claim figures), or health care surprises and looks promising.

by DCCyclone 2010-02-02 10:12PM | 0 recs
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RE: Even Rasmussen has Obama above water now......

I admit to being a little confused by this bounce becasue my view of Obama has not changed at all (generally positive/slight dissapointment at a few things). I can't beleive it has anything to do with the GOP p0wNage becasue I don't think it penetrated to the avg. Joe so to speak.

by vecky 2010-02-03 04:07AM | 0 recs
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RE: Even Rasmussen has Obama above water now......

The pollsters want to make money and influence politics by pretending to measure an extremely excitable, easily agitated, highly fickle voter population. They write the questions in such a way as to make sure the new results are different than the previous results - which keeps pundits employed and gives bloggers stuff to explain to us dummies.

You are right in saying that Obama has been remarkably steady in demeanor and philosophy.

Obama's the Bread. Polls, Pundits, and Bloggers are the Circus.

by QTG 2010-02-03 08:52AM | 0 recs
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RE: Even Rasmussen has Obama above water now......

Do you really believe Gallup changes its approval question from day to day?

by Steve M 2010-02-03 09:52AM | 0 recs
97250_45
RE: Even Rasmussen has Obama above water now......

I have no idea whether Gallup changes its approval question every day or whether they never change it, or what criterion they would base a decision to change it or not. Perhaps that proves something about me, or you, or Gallup, or Obama. Maybe we should ask some people what they think.

On a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being the most likely to want to ask people what they think and 10 being completely uninterested in what people think, "How do you feel about asking people what they think people think about wht QTG believes about Gallup's daily approval question configuration variability?"

by QTG 2010-02-03 11:01AM | 0 recs
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SOTU Bounce?

Obama best stay on track now.  We've heard his malarky before--a ton of campaign statements which turned out to be thin air. Today's announcement that he will accept the big bonus payments to the AIG criminals is crazy. I have progressive friends i.e. labor union people here telling me that he is going to cost us the control of Congress--that is scary--complete gridlock when that happens we go thru the same crap with the Repubs in control that we had with Clinton--they spend all their time and our money trying to find a way to impeach him and put HIM in jail. Obama must really be easy--I don't think he realizes that this is a real problem. Why doesn't he send Holder to Federal court and indict these AIG crooks for fraud, embezzelment, illegal conversion of government property, etc.  Then you will see his approval rating go thru the roof.....its really sad to see him cowtowing to all these special groups except the people who voted for him. If he allows AIG to collect those bonuses, I'm leaving the Democratic party.......he can close it down when he get voted out in 2012......

by hddun2008 2010-02-03 09:11PM | 0 recs
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Because

even though what they did was unethical and crashed the global market, it was neither fraud, nor embezzelment, nor illegal conversion of government property, at least not what has been uncovered yet.

You can indict someone who didn't committ a crime. There has been an investigation ongoing since April.

 

 

by ND22 2010-02-03 11:53PM | 0 recs

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