by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 01:28:56 AM EDT
I step away for a few days, and then look at the polling, and its even worse. And then I read Democratic partisans actually putting in print predictions that Democrats will retain both bodies of Congress (Donna Brazille, Bob Shrum). What are they high on?
The Hotline poll numbers are toxic city for Democratic House incumbents. A slew of 30's and a few scattered low 40's. These are incumbents folks! Anything under 50% and they are 95% out the door.
And Obama's numbers. It amazes me to still read people saying that Obama is gonna win a landslide in 2012. He's rolling in the 30's on job approval in CNN polling states like MO, NV and OH, and in the 40's in states like NY and CT.
If Obama wins, no, the only way he will win, is by there either being a split of 3rd party, and/or a meltdown of the Republican candidate. Sarah Palin will not be their nominee. I will bet on it. But both of those scenarios are quite possible.
2011 is going to be soo soo ugly in DC. Not a single thing is going to pass. Obama, who is now in 8-9% approval among Republicans, will likely see that number go even further down. It's the Independents though, that are killing Democrats. A block of 55-60 in disapproval has been solid since last summer.
It is a combination of Obama hiring the same people who do the same thing (brand killer); letting the banks get 100 cents to the dollar of Gov't money and then letting their obscene bonuses happen (populist killer); not taking the small deal on HCR in July 2009 (jobs focus killer); and then Obama's War in Afghanistan over the summer (hope killer). Its never one thing that is an end-all, but a multiple of things that when, it tips, go south until they turn, and that can be a while.
When will the Democrats get a grove back? Obama's numbers are likely to get even worse in 2011. We are going to have to see some vicious Democratic primaries that go against the anti-populist sentiment among the DC Democratic establishment. Otherwise, it may not be until 2016, and after Republicans take total control in 2012.
Its a few weeks away from the bloodbath, and I've no reason to look at the blood being spilled on a daily basis.
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