Sabato's Crystal Ball has final call

by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 07:50:52 PM EDT

The Crystal Ball’s Final Calls, good read. Their projections:

House: 55 seats. Pretty solid. My thoughts are basically that if the generic ballot is 6% Republican, the House makeup is going to revert to back to 2002-2005 level. Anything greater or lesser than that 6% means a few seats either way. 49 seats would be right at 6 percent. Democrats would be down to 206 seats. The adjustment to make is that using this as a traditional model means going by Gallup's numbers for the final generic ballots for the previous elections, and the composite generic ballot for this one. However, Gallup right now has a 9-14 percent lead, much higher than the current 6 percent composite. I'm going to wait for Gallup's final numbers on Monday to see where this falls-- I would not be surprised to see them halved.

Senate: 8 seats. This is a straight consensus shot. Of the six contests (CO, NV, IL, WA, WV, CA), Sabato has the first three going R and the other three going D. I could go with this too, but knowing that they tend to all slide one way or the other means we could see 10 too. 11 (Boxer losing seems out of mind but Rasmussen has this a 49-46 race today).

However, a 1982-like scenario is not out of the question either; where all the close one's break opposite the House, and the D's even pull out an upset, like the 3-way in AK, for a net loss of 4 or so seats.

But it sure looks like IL and NV slipped away from the Dem's this week, WV went back to Dem, CO has become tighter, with CA & WA still Dem but tightening. CT & DE are solid Dem now. KY is done.

Gov: 8-9 seats. This is where the real damage is being done, without much commentary either. FL, OH, PA, WI, but howabout CA & Brown? It's going to be tough for the "blame the professional left" meme to get started when trend-setter CA goes for the lefty Brown. Sabato adds this:

The closest of these are CA, CT, IL, MN, OR, and VT. In each case we have had highly reliable, well-placed sources insist that our frontrunner could end up on the short end come Tuesday. So again, we will keep an eagle eye on these states over the weekend, for a possible Monday update.

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My prediction

65 seats in the house and take over in the senate , 10 seats .

by lori 2010-10-28 07:59PM | 0 recs

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RE: Sabato's Crystal Ball has final call

I think Dems will keep the Senate with 52 seats (pretty generous). I'm predicting Boxer to keep her seat, WA and WV to go Blue and Bennett to win by a hair. Again I think its a pretty generous estimate for the Democrats.

With Harry Reid out though, I believe that Meets Durbin becomes Majority Leader? That might not be so bad.

by Chuckie Corra 2010-10-28 08:10PM | 0 recs

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What did we do to deserve this?

We worked so hard in 2006 to gain back the majority and Barack Obama had to come in and screw it all up. We all need to come together and defeat this Manchurian candidate in 2012 before the Democratic party shrinks further.

by Kent 2010-10-28 08:42PM | 1 recs

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damn right

hes gotta do a LBJ

Harris has him at 37% approval

by changeagain2012 2010-10-28 09:20PM | 0 recs

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RE: What did we do to deserve this? We Don't -- this guy is miserable- even with Carter we kept the Congress

I live in west Houston area which until 1990 was over 90% Republican (the Congressman still is). But it started changing and by 2006 we captured the State of Texas offices. We were rolling and with NO help from Obama's team (we even got money from Hillary's team during the primary) we increased our representation in 2008. Now we are so screwed by this Republican Lite President we will probably lose both of our state offices--what a pity. His only accomplishment in 2 years is Obamacare--which will probably be revoked under the GOP congress next year. God, this guy is totally out of it--still fighting in Afghanistan, still around 10% unemployed, still huge deficits, 1million foreclosed homes, bankers who have mulitmillion dollar bonuses who got tax bailouts, it goes on and on. I'm looking for Howard Dean to come out and run in 2012--Obammie will be tough to beat but it can be done.....

by hddun2008 2010-10-29 02:43PM | 0 recs

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Governors

Tossups are FL, OR, VT and CT.

Others:

CA--Hard to see Brown losing this, bu he may not close well.

IL--Quinn may outpoll Giannoulis, even though both will lose.
MN--Emmer one of the worst GOP candidates this cycle.
ME--Libby Mitchell one of the worst candidates. Ever.
TX--Bill White never caught on. He was on defense far too often, and spent too much time campaigning in rural East and West Texas, and not enough in the DFW/San Antonio corridor and South Texas.

So it looks like -8 in the Governors' races, a terrible result.

by esconded 2010-10-28 09:04PM | 0 recs

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RE: Governors

I gag on vomit at the thought of lying bastard "iraqi war hero" Kirk as my Senator. I'd rather have a straight out wacko like O'Donnell or Angle than that slimy smirking bastard.

by antiHyde 2010-10-28 09:22PM | 0 recs

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I'd go with -60 seats

and down to 52 in the Senate.

by John DE 2010-10-28 11:34PM | 0 recs

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KY

I still have faith that Jack can beat Rand.

by kydem 2010-10-29 12:05AM | 1 recs

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Ridiculous

I cannot believe you can't see through the obvious.

The Rethugs bought the polling process awhile back. There's no question that Rasmussen and other robo-polls have been skewing the narrative for two years now, and that immense propaganda anti-Obama buys, like the idiots above, have been polluting sites like this since 2008.

Extensive analysis has shown the sampling has been BOUGHT to skew Republican. Poll after poll is trying to sell us an electorate where every Teabagger and their filthy mother turns out, and 9 out of 10 Democrats stay hom, especially young people.

I'm not buying. I predict a 20-seat loss in the House, and maybe 5 seats in the Senate. I think Reid will win, I think Conway wins, I think Boxer wins, I think Murkowski and Crist win and turn against the new GOP who deserted them, I think Blumenthal, Coons, and Sstak win.

The GOP is going to be very surprised on Wed Nov 3, and we will still say MADAME SPEAKER.

by dembluestates 2010-10-29 09:10PM | 0 recs

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RE: Ridiculous

I agree with you that prolific Republican partisan polling is skewing the averages. I think Boxer, Murray, Coons, Blumenthal and Reid will win and Sestak is not out of it. Even Feingold could surprise if cell-phone-only voters in Milwaukee and Madison turn out. Disagree with you on Crist and Conway--they are out of it in my opinion.

I think we will lose the House, but not with a 60-70 seat loss many are talking about. The Democrats won the Congressional vote by about 7 percent in 2006, even though they had much larger leads in many of the generic ballot polls at the time. It's possible the Republican advantage in the Congressional voting will only be 2-3 percent, which means either holding the House or losing the House by a margin that could be made up in 2012 (depending on how redistricting goes).

by desmoinesdem 2010-10-31 02:32PM | 0 recs