Sabato's Crystal Ball has final call
by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 07:50:52 PM EDT
The Crystal Ball’s Final Calls, good read. Their projections:
House: 55 seats. Pretty solid. My thoughts are basically that if the generic ballot is 6% Republican, the House makeup is going to revert to back to 2002-2005 level. Anything greater or lesser than that 6% means a few seats either way. 49 seats would be right at 6 percent. Democrats would be down to 206 seats. The adjustment to make is that using this as a traditional model means going by Gallup's numbers for the final generic ballots for the previous elections, and the composite generic ballot for this one. However, Gallup right now has a 9-14 percent lead, much higher than the current 6 percent composite. I'm going to wait for Gallup's final numbers on Monday to see where this falls-- I would not be surprised to see them halved.
Senate: 8 seats. This is a straight consensus shot. Of the six contests (CO, NV, IL, WA, WV, CA), Sabato has the first three going R and the other three going D. I could go with this too, but knowing that they tend to all slide one way or the other means we could see 10 too. 11 (Boxer losing seems out of mind but Rasmussen has this a 49-46 race today).
However, a 1982-like scenario is not out of the question either; where all the close one's break opposite the House, and the D's even pull out an upset, like the 3-way in AK, for a net loss of 4 or so seats.
But it sure looks like IL and NV slipped away from the Dem's this week, WV went back to Dem, CO has become tighter, with CA & WA still Dem but tightening. CT & DE are solid Dem now. KY is done.
Gov: 8-9 seats. This is where the real damage is being done, without much commentary either. FL, OH, PA, WI, but howabout CA & Brown? It's going to be tough for the "blame the professional left" meme to get started when trend-setter CA goes for the lefty Brown. Sabato adds this:
The closest of these are CA, CT, IL, MN, OR, and VT. In each case we have had highly reliable, well-placed sources insist that our frontrunner could end up on the short end come Tuesday. So again, we will keep an eagle eye on these states over the weekend, for a possible Monday update.
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