Obama's re-elect a solid 39%

 

It's not polled that often yet, but its been a pretty solid 39% that opt for Obama in 2012.

In fact, more like him personally than like his policies. Some 48 percent think he's a nice guy, while just 42 percent approve of his job performance.

But that personal favorability doesn't translate into re-election support when voters are asked if Obama deserves a second term. Says Schoen: "Despite voters feelings toward Obama personally, 56 percent say he does not deserve to be re-elected, while 38 percent say he does deserve to be re-elected president." Worse, Schoen adds, "43 percent say that Barack Obama has been a better president than George W. Bush, while 48 percent say Bush was a better president than Obama has been."

The way out:

Still, the president has a shot at re-election, according to the poll of 1,000 likely voters taken October 18-24. Schoen found that a slight majority, 51 percent, favor a third party in American politics and if that were the Tea Party

, then Obama would win in a three-way race in 2012. According to Schoen, if the race pitted Obama, Republican Mitt Romney and Tea Party favorite Sarah Palin in 2012, Obama would top the others with 40 percent; Romney gets 32 percent and Palin 17 percent. And, in a bit of bad news for Palin, if the Tea Party candidate were Mike Huckabee, he and Romney would split the non-Obama vote 24 percent-24 percent.

... is probably not going to happen.

You'll have to excuse me, after the election next Tuesday, as I drop out of participating in the traditionary gnawing and thrashing of teeth among Democrats for the blame game.

Am at 9 seats in the Senate and 57 seats in the House for a prediction. What's yours?

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Comments

32 Comments

Patty Murray

Is that the 9th seat?  I have it at 51 seats--thought the early voting numbers are somewhat disappointing for her.

The only issue for the House is whether the Dems get to 200.  Close call, but I'm on the under (barely).

 

by esconded 2010-10-28 04:37PM | 0 recs
RE: Patty Murray

I could be at 51 as well; WV and WA are the toughest calls.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-10-28 07:00PM | 0 recs
RE: Patty Murray

WV should go blue (and by that I man purple because manchin is half blue, half red at this point).

Raese is bringing in Ted Nugent in a last ditch effort, sadly it may help him in this state.

by Chuckie Corra 2010-10-28 07:13PM | 0 recs
5 and 32

I have to admit that this incredibly optimistic projection is greatly influenced by living in Minnesota. It just doesn't feel all that bad. This election season I haven't gotten out of the state as I usually do. But I have traveled the state a bit more then usual. There is just not any wave here.

We have a "moderate" bleed off party and the only effect I see is that it will draw a few more Republicans this time. This despite the fact that the Democratic Governor candidate  leading ticket generates let me say dutiful support at best. Our 5-3 congressional split will still be a 5-3 congressional split. Our Democratically controlled State Senate and House will be Democratically controlled.

I am sure to be wrong. But that is not unusual.

by Judeling 2010-10-28 06:21PM | 0 recs
RE: 5 and 32

Could lose one House seat there, but I guess Walz seems safer now. For the Gov race, if it were not for the Republican running, would not likely go Dem. But yea, good point. What an outlier state; where the Dems are taking over-- can't see how this helps Pawlenty.

Here in Virginia, we have Boucher now on the table for losing now. Could see 4 seats go Republican. I think Moran is going to be in the low 50's.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-10-28 06:59PM | 0 recs
RE: Obama's re-elect a solid 39%

I went with 58 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate in an office pool back on Labor Day. I think it will probably be 60+ seats in the house and your 9 looks about right for the Senate.

Hopefully a few Democrats will start to understand that they are wiping out their party, but I'm not optimistic. They'll blame it on "messaging" or some such nonsense instead of pointing the finger where it belongs.

by hwc 2010-10-28 06:53PM | 1 recs
RE: Obama's re-elect a solid 39%

FOREIGN MONEY, lol.


Yea, don't bother. I can tell you this, there is a revolt among the state-tier of democratic campaign consultants that the national consultants are so out of touch messaging with what is happening outside the DC bubble. And how anyone thinks that sending Gibbs to lead the DNC helps is beyond comprehension. Whatever.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-10-28 07:04PM | 0 recs
RE: Obama's re-elect a solid 39%

Manchin will most likely pull through in WV, if he doesn't do anything to royally screw things up.

 

I don't see Harry Reid pulling through in NV, and Giannoulias seems to be slipping down the polls

by Chuckie Corra 2010-10-28 07:19PM | 0 recs
I can fairly easily say eight in the Senate

And probably around 50 in the House.  Thanks Obama, hope you dont get another term and undermine the Democratic party for another four years.  Bastard. 

by Kent 2010-10-28 07:35PM | 0 recs
Well...
I think we lose 48 in the house and 7 in the senate. And since we brought up 2012 I say Obama wins re-election pretty handily. Of course since so many of us prefer losing to winning I'm sure plenty won't like it.
by JDF 2010-10-28 07:42PM | 1 recs
dump him..

harris has him at 37% approval today

by changeagain2012 2010-10-28 09:30PM | 0 recs
RE: Well...

Sounds like you read MyDD quite often. I only come here from time to time. I'm an Inde[endent and I'd rather read DKos and DU, where at least the Dems are putting up a fight.

by spirowasright 2010-10-28 11:14PM | 0 recs
2012? Really?

I do not come here as often as I used to, but it seems that everytime I do, you (Jerome) are playing up the "concern".

I seriously am not sure what your agenda is anymore.

You and others are worried about 2012 now? 

How about figuring out how to fight the rightwing media and corporate control of the message/information.

 

hm.

by kevin22262 2010-10-28 07:50PM | 0 recs
33% of dems polled

who voted for obama in 08 say they will not vote for him in 2012.

 

what is said at this or any other site is not gonna change that.

 

you just want to stifle dissent.

 

its the obama way.

by changeagain2012 2010-10-28 09:35PM | 0 recs
RE: 33% of dems polled

"you just want to stifle dissent.

its the obama way."

HAHAHA!  Oh my... you are too funny!

by kevin22262 2010-10-29 12:42AM | 0 recs
Re

65 seats in the house and 10 seats in the senate ... I'll go all out on this one...I know the most realistic outcome is a 51 -49 split according to the polls , but I think the wave would be bigger than expected . Washingtom and West Virgina are tough calls , but I would pick Rossi and Rease . If I am wrong , won't be the first...

by lori 2010-10-28 07:51PM | 0 recs
All Politics is Local--and Obama got us screwed in west Houston

When 2006 came along, we pushed our area in Houston to where it had never gone--we elected Democrats to 2 key offices. We expected better results in 2008 and with Obama in the lead we got 1 more seat in the Legislature. Then came his "cumbayah" crap with the Republicans and his reaching out and resetting the tone in Washington.  Now, we are toast--after hard work and setting goals, we will most likely lose all we gained over the last 10 years here.

I will be interested in his reaction when he gets HIS lesson in Working Together With the Republiars when they start to impeach him. He will probably still think that Republicans can be worked with when they toss him out of the White House. But the good side of that is that we will get a real progressive into office- Joe Biden will move up.....

by hddun2008 2010-10-28 07:56PM | 0 recs
wow...

Did the "PUMAS" take over MyDD again?

 

hm...

by kevin22262 2010-10-28 08:04PM | 1 recs
RE: wow...

It sure sounds like it.

by spirowasright 2010-10-28 11:15PM | 1 recs
uh oh - rally the kos - mydd enforcer goon squad

 

time to go puma hunting again! (and be sure to bring some new jerome armstrong put downs and insults with ya too - we're runnin'low) time to go puma hunting again! (and be sure to bring some new jerome armstrong put downs and insults with ya too - we're runnin'low) we'll show em!

 

by changeagain2012 2010-10-28 09:49PM | 0 recs
RE: uh oh - rally the kos - mydd enforcer goon squad

And the list of martyrs grows and grows...

They'll hunt us like animals, with big elephant guns.

They'll poison our wells.

And soon, no one will be left to mop up our blood and our tears.

by Strummerson 2010-10-29 09:44AM | 0 recs
As if Jerome didn't know

that it takes a candidate to beat a candidate.  And that the election is two years from now. To act as if THE way out is a third party candidate is either disingenuous or genuinely stupid.

by Thaddeus 2010-10-28 10:06PM | 1 recs
RE: Obama's re-elect a solid 39%

And whether Jerome, Kent and the rest of the MyDD Chicken Littles like it or not, Obama is probably going to head into 2012 as the only viable choice overall, just like reagan was entering 1984.

by spirowasright 2010-10-28 11:17PM | 0 recs
dump him

or the party will go down with him

 

hes lost 1/3rd of the dems who voted for him in 2008

 

and 2/3ds of the Indys that did

 

tell me how those voters are gonna be replaced?

by changeagain2012 2010-10-28 11:22PM | 0 recs
RE: dump him

See my above post. BTW, two years is a long time and who's your candidate if not Obama?

 

MyDD--Home of the Mitch McConnell Democrats!

by spirowasright 2010-10-28 11:28PM | 0 recs
RE: dump him

Howard Dean.  Im sure he is real happy about Obama tearing down his 50-state strategy and destroying all of the hard work he did in 2006 and 2008. 

by Kent 2010-10-28 11:42PM | 0 recs
RE: dump him

Really?  Do we dare to dream?  

If only Howard Dean would find the courage to primary Obama, get 35% of the vote, and punish those dastardly o-bots by squandering party resources to try and get someone like Romney or Huckabee in the WH as their just comeuppance.  

"He has sounded forth the trumpet that shall never call retreat;
He is sifting out the hearts of men before His judgment-seat"

 

 

by Strummerson 2010-10-29 10:15AM | 0 recs
RE: Obama's re-elect a solid 39%

And is Howard Dean interested in running?

 

Accoridng to the latest polls, 85 percent of Democrats approve of the job President Obama is doing and 15 percent post at MYDD

by spirowasright 2010-10-29 12:29AM | 0 recs
RE: Obama's re-elect a solid 39%

Oh, there's one othe rthing:

 

Kent--King of the Mitch McConnell Democrats.

by spirowasright 2010-10-29 12:30AM | 0 recs
changeagain2012

is a nut.  Sorry... a troll.  Sorry again... I mean a puma.  Oops... sorry again... I meant all three.

by kevin22262 2010-10-29 12:45AM | 0 recs
RE: Obama's re-elect a solid 39%

All of the above. And unlike kevin22262, my charges are legit.

by spirowasright 2010-10-29 03:09PM | 0 recs
How

I don't undertand how you can come up with a number like that when there hasn't been a poll to see this.  Anyways, polls that you get this type of information on is flawed with margin error.  I wouldn't read in to this anymore.

by jeffrtho 2010-10-29 05:17PM | 0 recs

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