Obama's re-elect a solid 39%
by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 02:57:40 PM EDT
It's not polled that often yet, but its been a pretty solid 39% that opt for Obama in 2012.
In fact, more like him personally than like his policies. Some 48 percent think he's a nice guy, while just 42 percent approve of his job performance.
But that personal favorability doesn't translate into re-election support when voters are asked if Obama deserves a second term. Says Schoen: "Despite voters feelings toward Obama personally, 56 percent say he does not deserve to be re-elected, while 38 percent say he does deserve to be re-elected president." Worse, Schoen adds, "43 percent say that Barack Obama has been a better president than George W. Bush, while 48 percent say Bush was a better president than Obama has been."
The way out:
Still, the president has a shot at re-election, according to the poll of 1,000 likely voters taken October 18-24. Schoen found that a slight majority, 51 percent, favor a third party in American politics and if that were the, then Obama would win in a three-way race in 2012. According to Schoen, if the race pitted Obama, Republican Mitt Romney and Tea Party favorite Sarah Palin in 2012, Obama would top the others with 40 percent; Romney gets 32 percent and Palin 17 percent. And, in a bit of bad news for Palin, if the Tea Party candidate were Mike Huckabee, he and Romney would split the non-Obama vote 24 percent-24 percent.
... is probably not going to happen.
You'll have to excuse me, after the election next Tuesday, as I drop out of participating in the traditionary gnawing and thrashing of teeth among Democrats for the blame game.
Am at 9 seats in the Senate and 57 seats in the House for a prediction. What's yours?
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