Senate Outlook a week out
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 11:35:18 AM EDT
RCP has Dems at 51 and the GOP at 49. They have the WV race leaning D.
Likewise, at 538, 51 - 49 Dems, with the WV race being at 50% but predicting D.
Pollster though, has WV going to the Republican, so 50 - 50 is there prediction.
It's tough to bet against these poll compilers. RCP was the first outfit that started compiling the results, and the individual pollsters made a bit of an outrage attempt in 2004. But then, and in 2006, it proved so successful that its become adopted as the best predicting calculation for the statewide races.
I'd like to look it up and make sure, but offhand, I can't recall a single Senate instance where this sort of compilation of results (2004 to 2008) has been proved faulty on the three mentioned above. There's always a first though, and you know it when it happens. I recall that, in 2006, both MT and VA were not compiled to be as close as they wound up being (off by just a bit though 1-2%).
Anyway, if we go with the above, either Joe Manchin and +1 (sometimes) for Democrats; or we wind up with a Senate where Joe Lieberman holds the keys to power. That's gonna make the 2012 CT Senate race quite contentious right out of the gate.
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