Nancy Pelosi is finished as Speaker

There's no way that Nancy Pelosi will be the next Speaker of the House. How many incumbent Democrats have come out and said they would not vote for her? Just going through the ad campaigns from incumbent Democrats, here and here, this struck me as a done deal.

On ads, this one by VoteVets for Harry Reid is tremendous.

This one by Joe Miller is hilarious.

As for Jack Conway's ad, its a hail mary. Conway has not ran an especially smart campaign, hitting Paul on drug legalization and now some college prank. But that said, he's running as a Democrat in Kentucky against the headwind of Obama in the wrong year. The best you could say is that this add is the sort of thing that a campaign is going to do while on the ropes with the clock running out.

From the looks of it, Paul's initial pushback seemed pretty defensive in the debate (Conway seemed robotic), and yet this punch-back ad by Paul looks very effective, blunting and now putting Conway on the defensive. I'm left wondering if Conway even wants this fight, or is going to leave it be. Now, that latter choice would be rolling over and playing dead at this point.

damn I'm sick of the spam in the diaries. Yea yea, I have the developers working on the migration off this dreadful beta...

From everything I see, we are looking at 65 seats, give or take 10, that the Republicans take, so the title is a moot point.



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We traded Pelosi for Obama

Obama just had to win that 2008 election, didnt he?  Now we are losing the best Speaker of the House we ever had. 

by Kent 2010-10-18 06:55PM | 0 recs
RE: We traded Pelosi for Obama

Watch u meam WE? Where is the evidence there was any kind of trade off between Obama and Pelosie by Dems? The facts are the Rethugs decided instead of attacking Obama, because he was so popular they would focus their lies, distortions and smears on both Reid and Pelosie instead. Then with the advent of the Fox fueled media  frenzy over the phoney tea Party they went after all to these honorable Democrats. Right! So now they are all wearing rethuglican targets on their back. The wingnuts have pushed propaganda so effectively thay have folks like you, a Progressive actually spouting this kind of nonsense.

by Ed beckmann 2010-10-19 12:08PM | 1 recs
RE: We traded Pelosi for Obama

Yeah, what about the other senior leaders of the party that fucked up the last couple of years? Obama was just one of them.

by Pravin 2010-10-20 02:57PM | 0 recs
Jack Conway's ad was right on

Would any Republican be even slightly worried about a fellow Republican's attack ad on a Democrat?

Given what we've seen with Willie Horton, Al Gore says he invented the Internet, John Kerry is a draft dodging French pansy, and Obama is a communistnazifascistmuslimkenyanindonesian who wants to destroy America, that's not even a question worth asking.

by 1st Republic 14th Star 2010-10-18 09:16PM | 1 recs
time for a spell check

I still say 55-60 seats.  Rasmussen says it will be 55, which means the consensus is 47-55 right now.  Dems will get to 51 or 52 Senate seats (CA and CO up in the air, Manchin wins WV, Angle wins NV, and IL also a tossup).  Regarding Conway's ad, it does seem like a desparation heave, not some thing you would do if down by just two or three points--KY is underpolled.  Conway would be better attacking Paul on economic issues and his insensitivity to the needs of average Kentuckians.

Pelosi did a lot as Speaker, but she blundered badly by forcing and winning a narrow vote on climate change, when even in the spring of 2009, chances for Senate passage were dimming.  And I don't think it's a good idea to have her as the face of the party, though I don't think Steny Hoyer would be a good leader.

by esconded 2010-10-18 10:20PM | 0 recs
RE: time for a spell check

That is correct. The Democratic party is not losing control of the Senate.

by Trey Rentz 2010-10-18 10:39PM | 0 recs
RE: time for a spell check

It would be a new this cycle, if the projection based on polling in the House turns out to be predictive. However, there are so few of the individual polls that are not full of motive and investment, that I don't believe they are too reliable. To me, they seem more like a pack (Sabato, Cook, Silver, Stu) that goes out of their way to be the same.

The trend shows a blowout of historical proportions, and that's what I'll go with if there's not any change (and there could be-- lets see the last ads).

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-10-18 10:49PM | 0 recs
RE: time for a spell check

Don't you dare attack a Democrat for getting a vote on climate change. The rethugs got you brain washed? It's the economy stupid lets keep it there shall we.

by Ed beckmann 2010-10-19 10:42AM | 2 recs
Rasmusssen has gone off a cliff

I have followed politics hard since '00 and have never thought he, or any other pollster, to be the in tank.   Now I am not so sure.   The guy is out there in a lot of polling.  He is either a genious with his ROBO polling, or a whack job ... or worse, a sell out.

by RichardFlatts 2010-10-19 12:15PM | 1 recs
From everything I see

You are wrong. The races in play right now are not a result of some energized GOP but a party that is fragmenting right down the side into a new party. The GOP is desperate to acknowledge and attempt to cover their base , watching the actual voters peel off and head over to other candidates like the TEA party.


And even if the majority of voters plan to stick to their party alignment, that is a sword that cuts both ways. We hear alot of complaints from the dems, but so far, nobody has really switched sides yet because the votes haven't been cast.


85% of the lobbyist money is being channeled into the GOP. And , consequently, into Washington satellite companies that feed from it.


But that money is toxic. I say. Vote for the best man. And watch what happens in November.


For all we know, we could capture Osama Bin Laden. The wave that would crash into the polls if we did. Would be enormous. This entire polling changed in exactly seven days, from where it was with a democratic party win - to where it is now. 


People forget that in the early days of the primary the Intrade stock for her plummeted in only three days. She went from the inevitable, Jerome - supported candidate. To nobody. The poll swing was 54% to 47%. 


All the races are COMPETITIVE.  The important thing is not the prediction, but your PARTICIPATION.




And this election would be the GOP's. Waterloo.



by Trey Rentz 2010-10-18 10:38PM | 1 recs
RE: From everything I see

But are they the English or the French?

by antiHyde 2010-10-21 07:52PM | 0 recs
You left out what to do about it.

Your proclamations of impending doom are typical. The entire issue of losing the House is predicated on a low Democrat turn out and a high Rethugteabag one. The answer is all of you who claim to be Progressives, Liberals or Democrats to set aside your anger and resentment and work to help get Dems elected. cutting of your party to spite it is no way to to justify giving up and letting the evil empire take control with out a fight to the end.

by Ed beckmann 2010-10-19 10:51AM | 0 recs
RE: You left out what to do about it.

Ed Beckman is right. Nobody has ever scared me away from voting in the past - and nobody will , this Nov. 2. I think he's hit the nail on the head.

Check this out.

1.  16 different tax breaks and supports for small business owners - myself included . These were left lying on the ground for eight years.


2. The SBIR reauthorization. Small business employes 86% of all scientists and engineers. The Democrats got this bill reauthorized after an insane game of pass the buck was played by the so called business friendly GOP - one in which the Department of Defense was so incensed, they decided to pass their own bill - so that the contractors working on weapons could keep working without interruption.


3. Student loans are more affordable  -  Obama totally reversed a bunch if fat cat stuff for the banks the Bush Republicans had in play. The loans cost the government less, and they are cheaper for the students to pay down.  Students everywhere should cheer this one. It's huge.

4. A massive reform of healthcare, that spends nearly one in six american dollars every single day.  More people are covered, better coverage, and less costs for everyone up and down the food chain. The out-of-control HMO companies are reigned in despite spending literally 2 million dollars a day trying to lobby this down. They're still spending the money. Be careful where it's going.


5. Obama stared down BP and made them set aside the largest oil cleanup fund in history - and he's got more credits and bonus for green buildings,  and alternative energy than anyone ever before. Ask yourself how many buildings upgraded during his administration - using less power, more effeciently. The answer will astound you.


6. I personally benefitted from this Administration when I sold my home. A new homebuyer hit me on my asking price and I made a good sale. Because Obama extended a credit to the guy, for his first time buy.  It wasn't just me. The entire housing sector rebounded. It's still on the mend, thanks to the guy's policies. All this foreclosure crisis stuff still going on , is bullshit - the big noise everyone is raising now about the existing foreclosures being invalid because of paperwork issues amounts to a silly set of signed documents that are supposed to be presented after the fact: the people who are losing their homes are doing so, because they haven't paid their mortgage. All those foreclosures still out there, are valid. The foreclosure crisis is waning and it was a huge problem for our country. And now its another, largely solved problem. The concept that this paperwork thing is going to be another big problem is B.S. There is no way the zillions of dollars in lawsuits that would occur, are going to happen - the real estate market has bottomed out and stopped its three year crash.


7. 9 out of every 10 dollars in TARP are being returned to the Government thanks to a booming stock market.  And thanks to a booming stock market, the investments the Govt. made in these companies to bail them out - the ones jerome says are all 'pro business' - are going to pay a divided for the American people. I grant you the oversight on that money was not good, and Geitner could have done a better job but in the end,  the money is coming home again.


8. Tax breaks are at an all time high for nearly 90% of all Americans. The only taxes that are going to be raised are on the people who are making a quarter of a million a year.


What's happened here, is the Obama administration has reversed a huge Bush Republican economic crash - and the money is now sitting in the bank accounts of big corporations - who are praying that they can file just one more bankruptcy in their subsidiary, or get just one more write off - while they are spending.... literally .... more money than ever before to try to get people in power to let them keep all the money and not have to put it back into the economy . They want their opponent to go out of business. They want to play a game of "chicken" with regulators.

And above all, they want corrupt men and women in congress so that they can write their own ticket. Shut down any reforms that were made and return this country to the state it was in, before Obama - where their corporate influence delivered an environment that gave them exactly what they want -

At the cost of the global economy.

These forces are a virus to the planet. And they need to be stopped. Here. And now.


And if they are stopped. Then this will be the end of a very wormy element of our government. The democrats who are all lined up with these guys. Are as afraid as the bush republicans.


I don't see Nancy all washed up. I see the GOP as all washed up. And I love the timing. They really think they're going to win.




by Trey Rentz 2010-10-19 12:19PM | 2 recs
RE: You left out what to do about it.

Yea, OK Ed, its the nasty progressive's fault... you got your professional left talking points down pat.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-10-19 01:14PM | 0 recs
RE: You left out what to do about it.

Your response tells me I hit a nerve. I never blamed Progressives , in fact I'm devoted left of the left progressive. I just asked you a simple question. I also gave my suggestion as to what we should now. I await your suggestions as to what we Progressive and fire eating Liberal hippies should do between now and the Disaster you predict will occur. I have another question for you. Do you hope you predictions don't come true? Do you have any suggestion as to how we can change your forcast from a lose to a win.

by Ed beckmann 2010-10-19 01:48PM | 0 recs
RE: You left out what to do about it.

No Ed, it wasn't a nerve. It was just my way of pointing you that you are on the same wave-length with Gibbs.

I've not made a prediction yet on the '10 outcome, merely pointing to what the polls show it looks like right now.

But yea, when I do make my prediction, I hope I am right.

I made a post about what is wrong with the current strategy, and how to fix it. Since its all the same still, there's nothing to change or believe has changed.

SOS and messaging that works (and doesn't)

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-10-19 02:15PM | 0 recs
RE: You left out what to do about it.

First of all Jerome I appreciate your criticisms, comments I really do . I wonder why you think my comment put me on the same wave length as Gibbs, I get the inference that I am blaming progressives for all the White house and Democratic missteps. Why not  compare me to every Democrat and progressive who believes this thing is not a lost cause and if we work together we can beat the forcasts. Your statement that Pelosi is toast  and your 65 seat prediction seems absolute to me. There is no qualifier in there now is there. I think I would have had a different comment if you added the fact that those statements could change as time and events and the polls Indictate. I just don't understand your resistance to the idea of setting aside all the insults from this admin and finding it in you to support and encourage we pull together to resist the Rethugs effort to take control. Or as you called it spouting my Professional talking points. 

by Ed beckmann 2010-10-19 03:31PM | 0 recs
"Man Up"

I sense Frank Luntz behind this.   Angle, O'Donnell, Rand, Witman ... all using some form of "be a man" or "man up".   Dems better figure out a counter ATTACK on this, not just a reply.   Republicans seem to be looking at women in as future candidates, and there are a lot of business women, for example, in the pipeline.  

Repubs are nott dumb.   They are going to keep going to the women candidates to try to nullify the Democrats usual advantage among women. 

How do we combat this?

by RichardFlatts 2010-10-19 12:13PM | 1 recs
Hoyer no better

The fact is that today you have to sell on tv.   Reid and Pelosi are PITIFUL on tv.  They suck.  But so does Hoyer.

I suspect as we foward more and more elections for these spots will rely on tv skills.  Boehner and and McConnell suck on tv too.

by RichardFlatts 2010-10-19 12:20PM | 0 recs
RE: Hoyer no better

I don't see Hoyer getting the votes if its the blowout it looks to be (blue dogs gone). Who is next?  Hard to tell.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-10-19 01:13PM | 1 recs
Jerome, what is up with you and this site?

Did your girl break up with you?   You lose a loved one?  What?

I always came here because this site had more facts, more analysis, than others sites that seemed to be fueled by single issues, cheerleading or emotion.   But today this site is sad with very few diaries, and fewer responses,  and you seem angry, sort of detached from Democratic politics. 

I heard a conservative, here today when I early voted in NC, telling someone that this country is at a crossroads.  I agree with the guy ( a black guy handing out a conservative voter guide).   Americans are ready to veer anywhere and on the right is fighting for them right now (for their vote, their money I believe).    Activists, columists, bloggers, etc. on the D side are needed now more than ever.   

How do we change the debate?  How do we change the message?  How do we win this WAR?

by RichardFlatts 2010-10-19 12:28PM | 0 recs
RE: Jerome, what is up with you and this site?

Your so right. Except your question about how do we WIN the war? We can't Win but we can END it. First thing first. We have to work are asses of to keep the Congress, both houses. Then we can rally to deal with the War,Gitmo,DADT,Capt & trade etc.

by Ed beckmann 2010-10-19 12:47PM | 0 recs
RE: Jerome, what is up with you and this site?

I am detached from the Democratic Party, that's true.

I am not angry at all (a projection?) as life is treating me so great (though I am quite pissed off that so many American middle-class income earners are getting the shaft).

As for the site, ebb and flow, ebb and flow. I think its looking for a populist cause to get behind.

Are you talking about the Afghanistan war?

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-10-19 01:11PM | 0 recs
RE: Winning this war

The answers are so simple and they come mostly from the FDR New Deal era:

1) Put people back to work, lots of people.

2) Regulate the big banks and Wall Street.

3) Rebuild the infrastructure

4)  Get rid of the mercenaries.  And wind down the expensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in a hurry.  Richard Nixon brought home 15,000 troops per month; Obama ought to be able to match that.

5) Take Social Security off the table.  Kill the Cat Food Commission and not Social Security.

6) Raise taxes on corporation and the ultra rich back to the level of the 60s and 70s (pre Reagan).  Eliminate all tax breaks for hedge fund managers.  That will pay for a lot.

7) Make it a war of being for the "rest of us" vs. Wall Street.  Lincoln had a fondness for "the common man."  We casn't save capitalism (or shouldn't) if it means selling America down the drain.

At this point, focus on this and avoid the side issues of religion, guns, and climate.  If they come up, do not back down.

8) Never apologize.  Looking weak plays into the hands of the GOP.

9) Start using phrases like giving money to the rich creates jobs ... in China.  Ian Welsh had a diary to that effect on his site.

10) Go after the GOP on immigration.  Pete Wilson lost California to the GOP for at least 20 years by going the anti-immigrant route.  We can never out anti the thugs.  Why lose the votes of huge ethnic communities for a generation trying to win the Fox News crowd.






by David Kowalski 2010-10-19 03:47PM | 2 recs

I agree with you on Pelosi , with reards to conway I don't get the sense that the a is a hail mary , infact I think from my corner here in Tennessee it seemed to me Conway was making a lot of headway against paul in the past few weeks as reported in local news , so I don't know if it was a desperation act . I think it was aimed at the undecided to move Conway over the top . I don't know if it is as bad as people seem to think it is for Conway...I am still at 55 for the republicans in the house could go higher

by lori 2010-10-19 12:35PM | 0 recs

Well, if she loses seats, she'll be gone. Plain and simple. The Dems rend the economy into the crapper once they took over.

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by rhea 2010-10-21 09:31AM | 0 recs


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