Even Rasmussen Gives Blumenthal a Huge Lead

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Jan 07, 2010 at 05:31:28 PM EST

Yesterday I noted a survey from Public Policy Polling that showed the new presumptive Democratic nominee in the Connecticut Senate race, Richard Blumenthal, leading all Republican comers by margins in excess of 30 percentage points. Today, Rasmussen Reports released its own polling on the race, and somewhat surprisingly the numbers didn't look too different:

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Connecticut, taken last night, now finds Blumenthal leading former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons 56% to 33%. A month ago, Simmons had a 13-point lead over Dodd.

Linda McMahon, the ex-CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, trails Blumenthal by a 58% to 34% margin. She led Dodd by six.

Long-shot candidate Peter Shiff, the widely-known president of Euro Pacific Capital, was essentially even with Dodd but now trails Blumenthal by more than two-to-one - 60% to 24%.

For some reason, the Cook Political Report moved this race from "leans Republican" with Chris Dodd in the race to just a "tossup" with Blumenthal in the race -- a classification that appears hard to bear considering Blumenthal's sky-high favorability ratings and his massive leads in polling from both PPP and Rasmussen. Indeed, if this race resembles anything, it resembles last cycle's match up between the über-popular Mark Warner and the über-unpopular Jim Gilmore in Virginia, where Warner led by wide margins throughout and ended up winning by close to a 2-to-1 margin. At this point, it's hard to see the GOP winning this race.

Tags: CT-Sen, Senate 2010, Connecticut (all tags)

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Great news!

Kudos to Chris Dodd for doing the right thing.

by Lolis 2010-01-07 06:36PM | 0 recs
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sorting out CT

As much as I think Blumenthal is a sure thing... let's not get too ahead of where things are: if Linda McMahon spends a good bit of her money, things could change. There are other, outside events that could factor into this. Blumenthal might - I know it seems very doubtful, but still, might - make a mistake or say something and it starts downhill. All of that, I think, means simply waiting, and seeing, before assuming this race is all over, might be, I dunno, at least prudent.

My own guess is Simmons decides to drop out for either a different office or a run at Lieberman's seat (and, I think, Dodd's dropout means the question about Lieberman isn't if, it's when). That leaves Linda McMahon, who at least has the money to make it a race, and seems expendable in the greater GOP scheme of things in CT. 

I also think all of the kerfuffling over "it's a Dem Disaster!" tend to miss an obvious point: no, Dodd isn't proof of a disaster... but that doesn't mean there isn't one. And Dodd leaving does say something - something I think that has yet to be nailed down - about simmering tensions within and from without the Democratic Party establishment. I don't think anyone, really, who's a serious Dem and serious about politics thinks we're in the best place internally or externally right now. And Chris Dodd was, until his retirement announcement, kind of a poster child for that reality. His going doesn't make the problems less real, or less pronounced.

by nycweboy1 2010-01-07 07:08PM | 0 recs
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RE: sorting out CT

If the Dems hold CT, NY, IL and CA seats, they will hod the Senate at least by a 55-45 margin. They will most likely loose AR, CO, PA, ND and NV. DE and MO may exchange giving the Dems a 55-45 advantage.

Holding the House is going to be much tougher, but I think in the end it will stop at a maximum loss of 31 seats and with some party switchers it could go to 35 losses!

 

by Boilermaker 2010-01-08 12:57PM | 0 recs

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