Would a GOP Win in MA-Sen Kill Healthcare Reform?

Josh Marshall thinks so:

And here's the thing to keep in mind. If Scott Brown were to pull off an upset that would end Health Care Reform, pulling Dems back to 59 seats and preventing final passage of the bill.

Not saying this is a likely scenario. But the stakes are staggering.

This projection is based on new polling released this morning by Rasmussen Reports showing Democrat Martha Coakley leading Republican Scott Brown by a surprisingly narrow 50 percent to 41 percent margin in the Massachusetts special Senate election to be held January 19.

Leaving aside Democratic complaints about Rasmussen polling and even the fact that this poll was only in the field a single day (and virtually every pollster other than Rasmussen won't release single-day numbers due to the inherent methodological concerns), is it really the case that a Brown win would kill healthcare reform?

Short answer: Not necessarily. While a Brown win would little doubt provide evidence of momentum behind the Republicans, thus inhibiting the path towards passing healthcare reform on a political level, it would not block the Democrats from being able to enact the legislation without having to once again get 60 votes in the Senate (which they would no longer have without GOP support should Brown win). Were the House to pass the exact version of healthcare reform already passed through the Senate, that bill would go to the President's desk to be signed. No need for another cloture vote in the Senate. No killing the bill just by changing the make up of the Senate.

Tags: Senate, healthcare reform, 111th Congress, MA-Sen, Special Elections (all tags)

Comments

11 Comments

So the question is . . .

will FDL come out in support of Brown?

by jsfox 2010-01-05 02:05PM | 0 recs
I wouldn't put it past Liar Blog Fake

After sleeping with Grover Norquist to Kill the Bill, that would be a classy move.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-05 02:54PM | 1 recs
tiresome

The hatefest against FDL is tiresome. Jane Hamsher is evil because she co-signed a letter with Grover Norquist, but Barack Obama did what he had to do when he cut deals with PhRMA and the insurance industry on health care reform, turning his back on his own campaign promises in the process.

by desmoinesdem 2010-01-05 04:44PM | 0 recs
Okay, fair enough. The hate all around is tiresome.

For the record, I do not hate Jane Hamsher.I think she looks like the weather lady from the Weather Channel and people don't agree with me on that, but I don't hate her.

Jane Hamsher:

Samantha Mohr fromt he Weather Channel: 

I think she is trying in her own way, and that she believes that her efforts are for the best of healthcare reform. As I stated previously, I think all this drama drama drama on the left are growing pains as we transition from a movement to gain power to a movement to use power.

My issues with Jane, which I don't see any benefit to detailing here, are related to my issues with Arianna Huffington.

I recently spoke out about the irrational doomsaying and its related irrational hatred of  certain democrats in power. It's okay to be angry at Jane as equally as it is okay to be angry at Barack Obama. But hatred is never okay. It's not okay for me to speak out against one hatred versus and not another hatred.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-05 05:34PM | 0 recs
Oh BS!

The images didn't insert :(

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-05 05:35PM | 0 recs
RE: tiresome

Oh Christ if snarky smart ass ass remarks now constitute hate I am going to be in a lot of trouble around here.

 

by jsfox 2010-01-05 09:41PM | 0 recs
I really just wanted to use Liar Blog Fake in a post once

I picked up that pearl over on Daily Kos and had been sitting on it for days (days!) waiting to use it.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-06 12:05AM | 0 recs
What's tiresome is FDL

and their attempts to blame everyone else under the sun for their lack of influence. As least MoveOn admits they're having a hard time bringing troops into battle, FDL wants to blame everyone else and hitch themselves to the Grover Norquist scorpion.

by ND22 2010-01-06 01:43PM | 0 recs
In any other universe, a 50/41 Ras poll would be a substantial D lead

Living in MA, I can tell you there is a surprisingly hefty conservative fraction that lives in the hills here. There is also frustration at the lack of change and corruption resulting from single party rule, as evidenced by the recent string of Republican Governors before Deval Patrick.

But sure, if every likely Coakley voter gets in an accident on the way to the polls, then yeah, that other guy whose name I can't even remember will win.

Living in the Boston area, I have neither seen nor heard anything from the Coakley campaign, which makes me nervous. But I have to assume they know what they are doing.

My thoughts were that Coakley has: a) party, b) gender, and c) name recognition on her side in a solidly democratic state Hillary Clinton carried in the primaries, and that such could overcome an enthusiasm gap. You have people like Jay Severin and Michael Graham on the radio advertising for her opponent every day, and this is a state that has elected Republicans.

I think once I start to see a campaign presence, I will feel more secure.

 

 

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-05 02:53PM | 0 recs
If a Democrat loses Ted Kennedy's seat, the party should pack it up

It will be the end. 

by Kent 2010-01-05 04:23PM | 0 recs
Kent's back!!!

The end is in 2012. Didn't you see that movie?

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-05 05:36PM | 1 recs

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