How Much Longer Does Crist Stay in GOP?

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Jan 26, 2010 at 12:17:26 PM EST

I've asked it before and I'll ask it again: How long does Charlie Crist stay in the GOP? If he wants to have a future in American politics, the answer may be not much longer.

Former State House Speaker Marco Rubio has squeaked past Gov. Charlie Crist in the race for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, leading 47 - 44 percent and topping Gov. Crist on trust, values and conservative credentials, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Seven months ago, Crist led Marco Rubio by a whopping 31 points. Today he trails him. Crist's saving grace? Fundraising -- but even that advantage is diminishing.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist pulled in $2 million for the last three months of 2009 and has $7.5 million in cash on hand, with no outstanding debts. [...] Meanwhile Crist's opponent, conservative Marco Rubio, continues to keep pace with Crist, raking in $1.75 million in the same period with $2 million cash on hand. For all of 2009, the former speaker of the Florida House has raised $3.4 million for the entire year.

Considering that Crist is talking about the potential of appearing publicly with Barack Obama later this week to celebrate the awarding of high-speed rail dollars to his state, one really has to wonder whether his heart is really in it for a bruising Republican primary -- which is the only way he wins his party's nomination. And with polling suggesting that he would lead, though narrowly, in a three-way race against Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek, it's hard to see why wouldn't flee the GOP if he indeed wished to be a United States Senator.

Tags: FL-Sen, Senate 2010, Florida, Charlie Crist (all tags)

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Crist seems pretty dependent on his party for his identity

Remember, this is a man who got married in order to pass a Republican base litmus test; like too many codependent's marriages, it was the desperate move of a man in love with something that no longer loves him. The Republican Party may reject Crist over and over but it won't matter, he can't move on he can never move on.

by Endymion 2010-01-26 03:29PM | 0 recs

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Indy run is risky...

3 way races are notroiously difficult to predict, and where would he get his infrastructure support? Florida is a big state! He couild make a deal with the unions, although I don't know what the penetration is...

He could try running again for governor instead, but with his approval dipping in that regard, it might not be helpful, either...

In short, Crist is screwed...

by LordMike 2010-01-26 03:35PM | 0 recs

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RE: Indy run is risky...

I agree , Crist is heading for a defeat . Rubio is a better fit for the conservative electorate in the republican primary....

by lori 2010-01-26 04:48PM | 0 recs

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I hope for an Independent run

We have two out of three candidates on our side in that race.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-26 05:55PM | 0 recs

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The elephant in the room...

...is that Kendrick Meek can't beat EITHER Crist or Rubio. He's trailing Rubio in a general election poll worse than Crist is in a GOP primary.

So what we really have here is two likely outcomes:

Sen. Charlie Crist (D-FL) or Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), and what won't be happening is Sen. Kendrick Meek (D-FL).

Which is objectively worse, the bluedog or the teabagger?

It's a tough call... we would probably have a better chance of dumping the teabagger in 2016 is the environment is more favorable to our side that year, but then again, incumbents generally have a little bit of a built-in advantage going into an election year most of the time.

I hate to say it, but I think the best outcome for Democrats is for Crist to either switch over to the Democrats or run as an Independent, because while he may not be able to beat Rubio in a closed GOP primary, it appears that he is the ONLY candidate who can beat him in a general election in 2010's hostile electoral environment.

by Obamaphile 2010-01-27 03:27AM | 0 recs