Bayh is a toss-up; lets go after McCain's seat

Last week I asked whether Bayh was vulnerable, and said probably. Today we get the confirmation:

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds that Bayh attracts support from just 44% or 45% of voters when matched against his top potential Republican challengers.

Congressman Mike Pence is reportedly considering running against Bayh. At this time, he attracts 47% of the vote while Bayh picks up 44%.

A former Republican congressman, John Hostettler, has already indicated he will challenge Bayh. In that match-up, it’s Bayh with a three-point edge, 44% to 41%.

Freshman State Senator Marlin Stutzman has announced that he is in the race. He trails the incumbent by 12 points, 45% to 33%.

Good that that Dodd has dropped out, and taken CT off the radar, because 8 Dem seats are in play:

Vulnerable: CA

Toss-up: NV, AR, CO, PA, IN, IL

Lean R: DE, ND

To get to 9, Boxer, who is vulnerable, would have to lose. Sabato puts the Dem losses at 7 seats right now (meaning we keep IL and lose all the other toss-ups that we now hold). Clearly, Democrats have to figure out some ways to broaden the map here, and not play all defense.

The best challenges of Republican-held Senate seats currently are in Florida, Missouri, Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Ohio. There's also been a lot of work to find a candidate in North Carolina.

But what we really need is a competitive challenger to John McCain in Arizona, because he might lose his primary. The filing deadline is not until June 2nd in Arizona. If JD Hayworth defeats John McCain, this seat is up for a toss-up in the GE-- if Dems have a good candidate. Gabrielle Giffords would probably defeat Hayworth, Ann Kirkpatrick would defeat Hayworth, but what about Karen English? She lost originally to Hayworth in '94, and maybe she's up for the re-match. Better to run a populist that can run against both DC elitism and rightwingery nutism.

I'm not sure though that Hayworth is going to defeat McCain, given that Palin is backing McCain, and McCain has been very toe-the-line conservative as of late. Still, its lining up for this kind of a potential opportunity that is going to keep Democrats from getting swept in the Senate.

Tags: 2010, Senate (all tags)




Too bad Neopolitano is DHS...   She'd have a great shot.

by FUJA 2010-01-25 05:42PM | 0 recs
RE: ...

Too much baggage now; but on second thought, no, she would win against Hayworth too.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-25 06:25PM | 0 recs
RE: ...

Would the baggage exist though if she was still Governor?

by FUJA 2010-01-26 12:19AM | 0 recs
GOP Congress coming

Take a look at this:

Every one of those pickup opportunities last spring has gone south.

It will be a GOP gain of 60 seats in the House and 11 in the Senate.

by esconded 2010-01-25 06:31PM | 0 recs

Dunno why NV and AR are labbled "toss-up" - they're lean-R to definite R IMO.

by vecky 2010-01-25 06:54PM | 0 recs

I think there's a possibility that we could have a different Democrat, is the reason. Right now, I agree.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-25 07:45PM | 0 recs

AR , NV are lean republican , in my view Lincoln and Reid are toast...

by lori 2010-01-25 07:47PM | 0 recs

Iowa is the bluest state with a Republican incumbent this year, it would be foolish not to go after it, no matter how popular Grassley is now.

Otherwise, I'd do everything in my power to keep the Republican Party out of deep blue states like Illinois, Deleware, and Pennsylvania, then focus on swing states.  Reid will have to work magic in Nevada, but New Hampshire, Colorado, Ohio, and Missouri seem better.

I'd leave Lincoln, Bayh, and Meek to fend for themselves.

If I were to go after a red state, I'd go with Alaska.  Murkowski is very popular, but she's a wholly owned subsidiary of the oil and gas industry; she even has their lobbyists write her legislation.  An Alaska Democrat would be relatively moderate, and the cost of the seat would be relatively low. 

Another alternative is Georgia.  Isakson is a relatively unpopular freshman with a reputation as a moderate; normally, I'd say that's a plus, but he might not be able to rally the base.  Georgia has been run by the Republican Party for the past six years, they recently lost the Speaker of the House to a corruption scandal, and the leading Republican candidate for Governor has distinguished himself by his ability to run campaigns funded entirely by the insurance industry.  The leading Democratic candidate for Governor has a shot, and a good Democratic candidate for Senate could benefit from his coattails.

Overall, if we're gonna lose seats, we should be smart about which ones we lose.  If we lose ND, AR, and IN but gain NH and OH, it makes for a smaller majority, but perhaps a more cohesive one, too.

by Drew 2010-01-25 08:01PM | 0 recs
Too Few Polls on IL Races

Too many bloody polls on what would happen six to nine months down the road and too few polls on the Illinois races or for that matter today's tax referendum in Oregon. Rasmussen, PPP and other polling organizations priority all screwed up!

by Boilermaker 2010-01-26 09:17AM | 0 recs
RE: Too Few Polls on IL Races

Pence will not run against Bayh...but his reasons are bogus..I think the tea partiers are behind Hostettler and Pence did not think he had much of a chance!

by Boilermaker 2010-01-26 11:58AM | 0 recs


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