Bayh is a toss-up; lets go after McCain's seat
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 04:11:56 PM EST
Last week I asked whether Bayh was vulnerable, and said probably. Today we get the confirmation:
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds that Bayh attracts support from just 44% or 45% of voters when matched against his top potential Republican challengers.
Congressman Mike Pence is reportedly considering running against Bayh. At this time, he attracts 47% of the vote while Bayh picks up 44%.
A former Republican congressman, John Hostettler, has already indicated he will challenge Bayh. In that match-up, it’s Bayh with a three-point edge, 44% to 41%.
Freshman State Senator Marlin Stutzman has announced that he is in the race. He trails the incumbent by 12 points, 45% to 33%.
Good that that Dodd has dropped out, and taken CT off the radar, because 8 Dem seats are in play:
Toss-up: NV, AR, CO, PA, IN, IL
Lean R: DE, ND
To get to 9, Boxer, who is vulnerable, would have to lose. Sabato puts the Dem losses at 7 seats right now (meaning we keep IL and lose all the other toss-ups that we now hold). Clearly, Democrats have to figure out some ways to broaden the map here, and not play all defense.
The best challenges of Republican-held Senate seats currently are in Florida, Missouri, Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Ohio. There's also been a lot of work to find a candidate in North Carolina.
But what we really need is a competitive challenger to John McCain in Arizona, because he might lose his primary. The filing deadline is not until June 2nd in Arizona. If JD Hayworth defeats John McCain, this seat is up for a toss-up in the GE-- if Dems have a good candidate. Gabrielle Giffords would probably defeat Hayworth, Ann Kirkpatrick would defeat Hayworth, but what about Karen English? She lost originally to Hayworth in '94, and maybe she's up for the re-match. Better to run a populist that can run against both DC elitism and rightwingery nutism.
I'm not sure though that Hayworth is going to defeat McCain, given that Palin is backing McCain, and McCain has been very toe-the-line conservative as of late. Still, its lining up for this kind of a potential opportunity that is going to keep Democrats from getting swept in the Senate.