I'd like turnout reports from the ground.  Anybody here in Mass?

And good for us in the long run. Brown we can replace in 2012.  Coakley would have been a right-of-Scalia hack senator for decades.

I think enough Dems will come home. Clearly there is momentum on the other side, but this would be too much, too soon, imo. Of course, during the front part of the weekend, I told everybody that the Chargers are the hottest NFL team right now :)

Hedge all you want like Rasmussen but you still would owe me the drink if Coakley wins! :)

I just got back and cast my vote for Coakley.

I think Brown will win but by a closer margin than everyone would think.

Who knows.  I have no idea how this has even happened in the past 3 weeks and I live here.

Also, on Predictions and MyDD, I think it would be neat to build it into the system as a visible form of reputation over time.  Start with 2010 elections on State/National level.  Over time it would give a good sense of how engaged users were and who can pick 'em.

Brown 49

Coakley 48

Kennedy 3

and even that may be too optimistic.

On the other hand, if Coakley wins a lot of pollsters will look bad.

55 - 45.....Brown wins.....

1-44 Brown.  For Coakley to win she needs African Americans to amount to at least 13% of the electorate and she needs the 18-29 vote to be at least 14% of the electorate. In the latter group she needs to get close the percentage in the DKOS poll among the 18-29 group (she leads by 26 in that group in that poll, only by 11 in the AGR poll).  In '06 the 18-29 group was 11% of the electorate but Patrick's margin in that group 44%.  In '08 the 18-29 group was 17% of the electorate and Obama's margin in that group was 58%.  This is also the group with the highest unemployment, and I am very worried that this fact will make the group less likely to vote and less Democratic in November.

I think the chance of an upset is bigger than people think.  But Brown's margin among independents I don't think will go down because it is based on perceptions about the economy.

Anecdoatally I do not hear good things about the turnout in Roxbury where it needs to be big.  I think there is a real chance Brown wins by 10 or more.

Turnout estimates vary wildly.  Snow and wintry mix, but hard to tell effect on turnout.

So here it is:

Brown 51.5

Coakley 46.5

Kennedy 2

A slight revision as Kennedy's share may be lower.  The fingerpointing is under way, but Obama needs a message overhaul
on the 27th.  The bank tax didn't gain traction, because of the credibility lost with the bailouts.  Obama's decline started with the bailouts, and he may not be able to recover.

I can go find the link if I win and prove just how awesome my predictive abilities are :), but I'll repeat it here (improving the accurace from my 49/49/2) win. Can someone make a post that announces the winner?

1. Brown 49.3
2. Coakley 48.7
3. That other guy 2.0

Take it to the bank. And don't forget, today's magic number is 0.5%

If the margin is less than 0.5%, then there's a recount.

Also, who liked Nancy Pelosi coming out and saying that a Brown victory doesn't stop healthcare reform?

And God I hope I'm wrong.

It is clear Obama's strategy of kowtowing to the Blue Dogs did not help him one bit in getting independent support. Same with Health Care reform which succeeded in getting both the right and left angry. I love how Emanuel types would have pilloried Dean if he was in charege of the DNC right now. What are these geniuses doing? They decided to continue the Bush bailouts of banks. They decided to put in a weird hodgepodge of a health care bill that still does nothing for the middle class.

The funny thing is Republicans havent even been good at coming up with fresh ideas. It's the Democratic Party's lack of leadership in putting a cohesive unified plan out that is making them lose respect. Sure Obama has done things better than Bush overall, But any idiot could do that considering how horrible the Bush presidency was. Same with Senate Democrats who have been better than the Republicans, but are limited by 4 or 5 Blue Dogs who have way too much say in issues.

So who is going to pay for a slam dunk victory becoming either a very narrow victory or a loss today?

This is just to offset my prediction of last week that Coakley would still win by 8!

Coakley - 49%

Brown - 48%

Kennedy - 3%

Right now the Dems are in full meltdown mode. Rahm is blaming coakley and Coakley's people are blaming the WH for getting too cozy with Wall Street. Either way, it seems like it's gonna be a long night. Jerome wrote in an earlier entry about how Obama is now on a populist message. The problem with that is after the revelations of the AIG bailout and sweetheart deals granted to Citi, it's hard to believe their sincerity when it comes to holding big banks accountable. There is rhetoric and then there is reality. Unfortunately the reality is biting main street and that's not good for the incumbent party.

Coakley 49, Brown 47, Kennedy 4

Over the last few days the panic sweeping the state has woken up dems who were not planning on voting.  I can not tell you how many people have told me ( Same reaction to my Coakley button in a suburban supermarket as an African-American hair place in Boston) they are voting against Brown - not for Coakley.

The standard to measure projected turnout in polls like PPP was "excitement".  MA Dems are not excited about Coakley, but we are still voting.