MLK Day open thread
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 11:55:03 AM EST
The trend is not Martha's friend. I don't believe that it'll be a 10% blowout like Pollster shows, but at this point, the upset would be for Martha Coakley to win. Republicans would flip their wig.
Basically though, Mass voters have a history of liking the forced bipartisanship. Four of their last five governors have been Republicans. It's only Deval Patrick, which was Axlerod's first go at the hope-and-change narrative, subsequently used by Obama, which changed that equation.
Coakley is said to be releasing an ad that nationalizes the contest. I'll update with the ad, but this sounds like a good move; something that should have been done a week ago, rather than the poor and desperate negative assults over abortion and rape that didn't dent Brown, but did lower Coakley's approval ratings.
Also, I had mentioned this previously, and now see there's a poll to confirm my suspicions. Barbara Boxer is probably going to have a very competitive election in 2010 in CA. A ticket of Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer at the top of the slate for Democrats there will be vulnerable. Rasmussen is showing Boxer up over Carly Fiorina by 46-43, a mere 3 percent. By far, Fiorina is the strongest of the three potential GOP candidates.
Brown is wiping Coakley out on the SocNets:
As of Monday morning, Republican Scott Brown has 76,538 fans on his Facebook page. With polls opening in less than 24 hours, Democrat Martha Coakley has 14,441 fans.
On Twitter, Brown has 10,187 followers compared to Coakley's 3,514 followers. The total uploaded views for Brown's YouTube videos are 578,271 versus 51,173 for Coakley.
[UPDATE] Two more polls out. IA showing a 9% Brown lead, and R2K moving from a 8% Coakley lead last week to a tie yesterday. My own calculations now predict Brown-Coakley-Kennedy at 53-46-1. I think we can expect a Ras. poll out tomorrow, and that's about it.