Brown favored to win
by Jerome Armstrong, Sat Jan 16, 2010 at 01:43:54 PM EST
ARG now confirms the trend, showing Brown ahead of Coakley by a 48-45 margin. Yesterday, I had a virtual tie, at 49-49, but today it moves to Brown by a 49.5 - 48.5 - 2 margin over Coakley and Kennedy.
I see that Chris Bowers is holding out as this contest still being Coakley's favored, and not a toss-up. His numbers are correct, but an allocation of the undecideds, which is what I compute, leaves me to believe that Brown is now very slightly favored to win.
I just haven't seen any reason to believe that Coakley is stemming Brown's momentum. Certainly her seeming so out of touch to remark that Curt Shilling is a Yankee doesn't qualify (ugh). The internals blogged about by Jim Geraghty seem in line with the trend. Republicans are good at taking advantage of these sort of slips, seemingly on a daily basis by Martha Coakley.
Here's another prediction, based on ARG's and other poll findings:
Brown leads Coakley 94% to 1% among registered Republicans and he leads 58% to 37% among unenrolled voters. Coakley leads Brown 71% to 20% among registered Democrats. A total of 8% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans remain undecided.
Brown leads 54% to 39% among men while Coakley leads 50% to 44% among women. Brown leads 52% to 42% among likely voters aged 18 to 49 and Coakley leads 47% to 46% among voters 50 and older.
Contrary to the CW, I think a higher turnout is going to benefit Brown. That's Brown's strong lead among Independents and younger voters. Given this is a three-day MLK weekend, its unlikely to change. This latest mailer by the Coakley campaign smells of a desperation moment reached by senior campaign consultants of Coakley in the past week.
I also notice that Sean Paul Kelly is ready to walk away from the Democrats if they pass this horrendus HCR bill. You can't really blame him or the multitudes of like mind, given how disastourous the past year has been. Whether or not HCR is doomed to failure, if Brown wins, that may not be the worst outcome for Democrats up for re-election in 2010.
I remember the day when, not very many years ago, Democrats lost special election after special election, each time the netroots getting stronger through the defeat. The momentum built enough to help create a wave election in 2006. With a win now, and gridlock (bipartisanship) later, a Brown win could turn out to save a lot of incumbent Democrats (a bird now saves two in the bush).
If Coakley does win, then Obama is going to deserve the credit. The President has timed his visit well; and if she loses, well, Coakley was already behind.