Scott Brown is a Republican!

by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Jan 14, 2010 at 10:52:46 PM EST

Here's a funny ad about this race:

For Jonathan Singer here, and Nate Silver of 538, its mystifying as to how this is a toss-up. How anyone can consider this not a toss-up seems more obvious. I cannot take the outlier done by the Globe last week, or the Mellman headfake, serious.

The two polls done this week by PPP and Rasmussen combined show a 48-48 tie. The poll done by R2K shows a 49-41 lead by Coakley, with a 8% lead, meaning a tie within the 4% MoE. In both the VA and NJ race, undecideds broke heavily for the Republicans. If anything, that sour landscape has gotten worse since November for Democrats.

Still, I think its barely Coakley right now. I doubt she gets more than 1, maybe 2 percent above her final polling number, but right now, across all the polls, she's at 49% which is enough to push her over the top.

But Brown may win it by staying positive. He's making the right gamble here given his position. Actually, so the onslaught of ads by the partisan Democrats, and Obama's ads as well, the internet ones that I've seen, also have the right message, to mobilize Democrats.

Tough race to call. Definitely a toss-up going into the closing days. Here's a post over on BMG for ya that is a hell-raiser insider whack job against Coakley's campaign job to date. It does appear that the Democrats in MA there have a lingering primary hangover...

[UPDATE] Scott Brown is ahead. The negative ads are back-firing. Coakley is going to lose.... Actually, its a toss-up.

So says the latest Suffolk poll, which shows Brown ahead now 50-46 percent. Hmm, Coakley at 46 now, that's not good. I'll recant my prediction that Coakley is going to win upthread. Brown's taking the highroad with momentum and the lead (in one poll), while Democrats go with a negative onslaught-- it is probably not the best scenario in the closing days for Coakley to win.

[UPDATE] The fat lady may be singing at Fenway already. CrossTarget, which is a GOP firm in Alexandria (may be an IVR spin-off of Target Point?), polled the race at Brown 54-36 for Coakley.

[UPDATE] Ahead of the last couple of polls to come out, my formula comes up with Brown 49, Coakley 49, Kennedy 2.

Tags: Scott Brown, Martha Coakley (all tags)

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Suffolk Poll:

Yes, it was commissioned by the Boston Herald, but it appears Scott Brown has surged ahead 50-46%. It's the first poll that shows a lead and a majority at that.

I hope the president and congress have a plan B for health care.. and the rest of the agenda, too, 'cos they are going to need it!

by LordMike 2010-01-14 11:09PM | 0 recs

4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal

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RE: Suffolk Poll:

Yea, Suffolk's last poll showed it a 58-27 race in Coakley's favor. Man, what a blown lead by her campaign.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-14 11:15PM | 0 recs

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This is devastating to me

I hope this poll is an outlier.

Is there any reason to question it technically? It contradicts the R2K poll from earlier in the day almost exactly.

I am not going to stop with my efforts of phone banking to try and drive up turnout. But to blow a campaign on this magnitude brings back the awful feeling of Dukakis in 1988.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-14 11:20PM | 0 recs

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RE: This is devastating to me

As Louis remarks below, Suffolk is not particularly steller. It's a toss-up, how many calls have you made? I agree about the phonebanking system on BO, its very good.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-14 11:26PM | 0 recs

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What do we know about upcoming polls?

I just hope this is an outlier. I heard Rasmussen has a poll coming out on Sunday night, but do you know of any others?

I was just on the first page, and then it got too late. I will report back tomorrow with the results.

I just find it hard to believe that the dynamic swung so wildly in a few days.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-14 11:35PM | 0 recs

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Tomorrow Big Dog rolls in town..hopefully this would help Coakley.....n/t

I also happen to think Obama and Biden should be going up there and help Coakley to retain Ted Kennedy's seat!

by louisprandtl 2010-01-14 11:45PM | 1 recs

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Biden would be great too

Hillary would be the best. But she can't.

Can Coakley cry? I know that sounds so sexist and derogatory and insulting. But if she showed a human side, as Hillary did in New Hampshire, it might help with the women.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 12:58AM | 1 recs

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HRC would be a great help. And Coakley crying wouldn't help. That is insulting and derogatory.

I don't know who is managing Coakley's campaign. Surely he/she has no fucking clue of campaign. She is/was scheduled to appear in only eight election related public events and appearances this week!!! Not a single one is scheduled for the full weeekend. What the heck is going on? Is some kind of a joke? http://www.marthacoakley.com/events

by louisprandtl 2010-01-15 02:34AM | 1 recs

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The link got messed up

http://www.marthacoakley.com/events

by louisprandtl 2010-01-15 02:35AM | 1 recs

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It's the worst joke imaginible

I haven't seen a campaign implode like this since Dukakis in 88.

I cannot think of one single thing they have done right. They outright insulted the voters of MA. It's not like they just insulted the Republicans. They insulted all of MA. Even I sense it!

How am I supposed to phone bank knowing this?

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 10:35AM | 1 recs

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RE: It's the worst joke imaginible

This campaign seems like the precise opposite of retail politics. Trust in the machine, and don't waste a minute trying to connect with actual voters. Coakley's quote where she mocked Brown for shaking hands outside Fenway Park was really really telling.

In the end, if it works it works - there's no points for style - but if this somehow goes south it will be Exhibit A for how you blow a safe seat. I can't recall ever seeing a campaign take the electorate for granted to this extent, and I'm not sure you can get away with that in the Internet age.

by Steve M 2010-01-15 01:50PM | 1 recs

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I was never once contacted by them

Never.

I was getting e-mails from Barbara Boxer, but not Martha Coakley. I didn't see her first add until a week ago.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 04:42PM | 0 recs

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Suffolk poll right before NJ election showed Corzine leading by 9 points..

so much for a spotty record.

http://www.suffolk.edu/38934.html

by louisprandtl 2010-01-14 11:20PM | 1 recs

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Paulie

Anyone else notice the resemblance of Paul Hackett to Scott Brown? To me, its nearly identical with some photos.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-14 11:28PM | 0 recs

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R2K Poll was taken later than Suffolk

and it is the only poll so far taken entirely after the last debate.

SUSA should have something on this too. I expected something from them yesterday or today in fact.

by Davidsfr 2010-01-14 11:37PM | 0 recs

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RE: R2K Poll was taken later than Suffolk

SUSA hasn't done an election poll in over a month.

by esconded 2010-01-14 11:56PM | 0 recs

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RE: R2K Poll was taken later than Suffolk

There hasn't been an election in over a month.

Why wouldn't they do one when an election is pending? They have media clients in Massachusetts.

by Davidsfr 2010-01-15 12:08AM | 0 recs

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Plan B--

On health care--I think that will have to wait until ____. On the bank tax, it might help Coakley a bit, but she really is an awful candidate; that negative ad was terrible.

Couple of observations--the bailouts are coming home to roost. If Obama is defeated in 2012, that will be the cause. Could the GOP win 60-70 seats in November? Could be. They won 54 in 1994, and the economy was nowhere near what it was now.

Reid needs to resign his leadership and the Democrats need a jobs bill, not HCR right now.

by esconded 2010-01-14 11:37PM | 0 recs

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RE: Plan B--

The curse of HCR!

by vecky 2010-01-14 11:49PM | 0 recs

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time for Obama to show some leadership:

Pass the Bill before Brown's certified and tell people to STFU.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-14 11:52PM | 1 recs

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Too early to say Brown will be elected/certified..don't give up..

More help is on the way...

by louisprandtl 2010-01-15 12:02AM | 0 recs

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I know. I'm making calls.

And it is just one poll. But I am very doubtful of a positive outcome. The Brown folks just seem so delusionally ecstatic.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 01:01AM | 1 recs

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Doom

Are you Kent?

by QTG 2010-01-15 05:24AM | 0 recs

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The negative ads are back-firing

his lovely daughters response to that "abortion rights" ad was very real and very effective.

bet he wins.

by 2010-01-15 06:49AM | 0 recs

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Can you go back to Red State?

Troll.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 04:42PM | 0 recs

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It's almost like you want Obama to fail

Jerome,

It is almost like you are wanting Obama to fail, and this is a nice proxy for you? I know you disagree with him on a lot, and he wasn't your candidate, but your analysis is very jaded by that. Things are bad, but not over. I mean, oh my god, a Rasmussen poll makes things look good for a Republican, stop my beating heart.

Alec

by alectimmerman 2010-01-15 07:52AM | 0 recs

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Jerome has been emotionally invested a long time...

...in disliking Obama. And that's what it is, an emotional investment, immune to reason or perspective.

It goes back to the primaries.

by DCCyclone 2010-01-15 09:47AM | 0 recs

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Guys, this has nothing to do with Obama

I am the biggest Obama cheerleader there is. I have been branded an Obot and such.

But Jerome has kept whatever feelings he has on Obama out of this.

I am here, on the ground in MA, and I can tell you this is an epic disaster. Everything Jerome is saying about the Coakley campaign is spot on. I really think Brown will eke out a narrow victory. Hopefully I am wrong. I am phone anking more today.

Unfortunately, this does impact Obama. The GOP will use the momentum from this. But not all impacts are bad. This is as clear a wakeup call as possible that democrats need to legislate like democrats.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 10:40AM | 2 recs

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sitting on your butt for a month

holding very few campaign events, and then swooping in with a ton of negative ads during the final week isn't a great strategy.

I still think she will win, but it will be way closer than it should. If she loses, she'll go down in history for running one of the worst campaigns ever.

The likely voter screen in that Suffolk poll seems weird.

by desmoinesdem 2010-01-15 07:52AM | 0 recs

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If you talk to people here, it isn't that wierd

I'm not saying I buy 50/46/3.

But most of MA residents are unenrolled, and the numbers Suffolk uses on party breakdown are very reasonable.

Moreover, the responses seem nonsenical to those out of state, but make perfect sense to those living here. Scott Brown has been able to tap into tea bag and democrat anger at the same time.

This is a real wakeup call for democrats.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 10:46AM | 1 recs

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CrossTarget is not a real polling firm...

...even the tebaggers think it's a joke. They had Brown up by five in DECEMBER, when every other polling firm had Coakley up by 30.

by LordMike 2010-01-15 09:24AM | 0 recs

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Jerome is off the deep end in reading polls......

From Jerome's diary, I've learned......

A 49-41 Coakley lead is a TIE.

And we're supposed to take seriously a poll that has Brown up 18 points.

Yes Coakley is in deep trouble, it's a toss-up, she could lose. But nothing has changed in the last 24 or 48 hours, that's where we were earlier this week, whether we realized it or not.

Hell, Marc Ambinder tweeted last night that Dem internal polling has Coakley up 5.

by DCCyclone 2010-01-15 09:51AM | 0 recs

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Jerome being Jerome

Using video from 96.9FM, hate radio in MA, and a cross target poll I think are just jokes.

Guys, I'm here in MA. I'm the biggest Obama cheerleader. My impression is that Coakley is in real trouble. I think Jerome's assessment of a tie come election night is still optimistic.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 10:49AM | 0 recs

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RE: Jerome being Jerome

I can't help but tweak them-- besides, it was a funny video.

Yea, a tie is optimistic. The independents have broken hard for Brown, I 'd like to see it reversed, but don't think 3rd parties are going to impact it enough. The only thing that could change the outcome at this point is some late scandal or a big turnout among Dems (prob not going to happen).

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-15 11:04AM | 0 recs

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put fork in her

she' s a right wing headline chasing lock em away forever DA type AG anyway.

the worst choice possible to be the nominee.

hate to lose the seat, but Im glad she wont be a Senator.

by 2010-01-15 12:51PM | 0 recs

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DA's have to do that for their job

On paper it works. And she's a woman.

Campaigning is everything. She could have had this handily.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 01:31PM | 1 recs

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prediction

51-46-3 Brown. Coakley was a worse candidate than Deeds. Even in a bad environment, candidate quality and message matter.

by esconded 2010-01-15 11:42AM | 0 recs

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hey

is that you Rahm? is that you Rahm?

by 2010-01-15 12:52PM | 0 recs

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Hate Rahm all you want

But if Rahm Emanuel were running Martha Coakley's campaign, Martha Coakley would be the next Senator.

Scott Brown would have politically been hit upside the head with a 2x4 a month ago.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 01:29PM | 1 recs

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RE: Scott Brown is a Republican!

This is not necessarily either/or in terms of horrible campaign or lack of popular support for the Democratic Party.

In fact, for this seat of all seats to go GOP, it would seem like it would have to be be both.

by jeopardy 2010-01-15 12:37PM | 0 recs

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gotta

be both.

though some will pretend otherwise.

by 2010-01-15 12:54PM | 0 recs

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More than both

Living here, and talking to me Independent Republican friends, there are lots of dynamics involved. People do overwhelmingly support the democratic party and even Obama's policies.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 01:33PM | 1 recs

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Why should I spend any of my time on this election?

Really?

I worked, spent and voted for change in the last two elections and I got more of the same.

I think Obama has the potential to be a great President but he has chosen to be less than average. He is more concern with being bi-partisan than making real change.

Well I am sitting this one out, because I have not been given a reason to fight. If we lose this election maybe just maybe the Democrats will learn a lesson.

I know I should care but as a liberal I am tired of being taken for grant.

by srliberalguy 2010-01-15 02:36PM | 0 recs

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RE: Scott Brown is a Republican!

"I've been called a lot of things...but never, I mean never, could anyone make the mistake of calling me a Yankee fan. Well, check that, if you didn't know what the hell is going on in your own state maybe you could..."

- Curt Schilling, responding to Martha Coakley's latest, awful gaffe.

by jeopardy 2010-01-16 11:25AM | 0 recs