January Polling: Coakley 49.6 - Brown 42.6

Non-partisan pollster Research 2000 is out with a new survey of the Massachusetts special Senate election (sponsored, however, by a Democratic blog, the Blue Mass Group), and the numbers while not great for Democrat Martha Coakley aren't half bad either:

QUESTION: If the 2010 special election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Martha Coakley, the Democrat, Scott Brown, the Republican, or Joseph Kennedy, the Libertarian candidate?

 ALLDEMREPIND
Martha Coakley49%82%7%36%
Scott Brown41%12%85%49%
Joseph Kennedy5%1%2%11%
Undecided5%5%6%4%

When you put these numbers in the mix along with all of the other polling from Massachusetts conducted in the past two weeks, Coakley leads Republican Scott Brown by an average 49.6 percent to 42.6 margin -- a 7-point lead. The Pollster.com trend estimate doesn't look too different, giving Coakley a 48.9 percent to 42.5 percent lead -- 6.4 percentage points.

There is a great deal of variance in the numbers, mostly owing to different surveys showing Brown earning different levels of support. What is more constant, however, is the finding that Coakley's support is hovering at, or just below 50 percent.

There still remain a few days before the election, and both campaigns are relatively flush with cash (the past 24 hours have brought in well over $1 million to the Coakley campaign, at least matching Brown's similar haul). Here's to an interesting Tuesday night, with close coverage of the numbers here at MyDD.

Tags: MA-Sen, Senate 2010, Massachusetts, Special Elections (all tags)

Comments

9 Comments

Rothenberg and Cook have moved the race to tossup status...

...not comforting at all...

by LordMike 2010-01-14 05:14PM | 0 recs
RE: Rothenberg and Cook have moved the race to tossup status...

It is a toss-up. The thing similar across the polls is that Coakley tops out at 50; with this one at 49. Its' entirely possible that Coakley is topped out right at 49-50, and its just a matter of whether the turnout differs from the projections of these polls toward either candidate to move it to a bigger win by Coakley or a slim upset by Brown.  5% for Kennedy is interesting, the negative ads on the other two might be pushing that up.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-14 05:21PM | 0 recs
I hope you're right

My instinct is to agree with your assessment, and as such, I will see your projection of 50%/46%/4% from earlier today, although I'm not sure Kennedy will actually pick up 4% on election day.

Still, I'm not being complacent.

I have my phone list from OFA. I will be phone banking as much as I can in the next 48 hours for Coakley.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-14 10:28PM | 0 recs
RE: January Polling: Coakley 49.6 - Brown 42.6

This election is very difficult. First Coakley ran a terrible campaign, and Obama's policies are not very popular in MA. The health care policy is polling at 40%, it gets no traction. This election just might foretell all the things to come later this year.

by tarheel74 2010-01-14 09:11PM | 0 recs
Not true on either account.

In the same Ras poll that put Coakley up 49% to 47% over Brown, 57% of the voters approve of Obama's performance, and I think healthcare reform was favored 45% to 42%. You'll have to check the exact numbers on healthcare.

Barack Obama and healthcare are indeed popular. Living here in MA, Brown basically is running as an Independent, which is a complete lie. It remains to be seen if that lie can be exposed in time.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-14 10:22PM | 0 recs
RE: Not true on either account.

It would be interesting to note Browns arguements against the HCR package given it's erily similar to the MA plan which he supported and continues to support.

But it dosn't seem that anyone has pressed that issue with him.

by vecky 2010-01-15 02:41AM | 0 recs
Too little, too late

Also, Scott Brown being a big fat phony doesn't help. The time to bring this up was a month ago.

The people here don't see it that way. They have been poisoned. They want HCR, but not this bill.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 10:57AM | 0 recs
RE: Not true on either account.

First Coakley is behind in a number of new polls and falling further behind. And if you think a response of less than 50% signifies approval for something then I have nothing to say.

by tarheel74 2010-01-15 10:08AM | 0 recs
Only one new poll, and it's Suffolk

After the Suffolk poll, I do believe she is behind, but not by a large amount. I think Brown is more likely than not to eke out a small victory. I agree with Jerome's take of a 49/49 narrow victory.

That said, do read the Ras and Suffolk poll question results. There is still more support for the current bill than opposition in MA.

 

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-15 11:00AM | 0 recs

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