January Polling: Coakley 49.6 - Brown 42.6
by Jonathan Singer, Thu Jan 14, 2010 at 04:53:15 PM EST
Non-partisan pollster Research 2000 is out with a new survey of the Massachusetts special Senate election (sponsored, however, by a Democratic blog, the Blue Mass Group), and the numbers while not great for Democrat Martha Coakley aren't half bad either:
QUESTION: If the 2010 special election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Martha Coakley, the Democrat, Scott Brown, the Republican, or Joseph Kennedy, the Libertarian candidate?
ALL DEM REP IND Martha Coakley 49% 82% 7% 36% Scott Brown 41% 12% 85% 49% Joseph Kennedy 5% 1% 2% 11% Undecided 5% 5% 6% 4%
When you put these numbers in the mix along with all of the other polling from Massachusetts conducted in the past two weeks, Coakley leads Republican Scott Brown by an average 49.6 percent to 42.6 margin -- a 7-point lead. The Pollster.com trend estimate doesn't look too different, giving Coakley a 48.9 percent to 42.5 percent lead -- 6.4 percentage points.
There is a great deal of variance in the numbers, mostly owing to different surveys showing Brown earning different levels of support. What is more constant, however, is the finding that Coakley's support is hovering at, or just below 50 percent.
There still remain a few days before the election, and both campaigns are relatively flush with cash (the past 24 hours have brought in well over $1 million to the Coakley campaign, at least matching Brown's similar haul). Here's to an interesting Tuesday night, with close coverage of the numbers here at MyDD.