Rothenberg has the scoop:

Republican Cong. John Shadegg (R) is retiring. First elected in 1994, he represents Arizona's 3rd District. John McCain carried the district with 56% in 2008.

John Shadegg, the conservative Republican Congressman stepping down, represents a district that, as mentioned above, leans towards the GOP. Overall, the district tends to vote about 9 percentage points more Republican than the nation as a whole (though that number is likely affected, at least in part, by the fact that an Arizonan headed the GOP ticket in 2008).

That said, Shadegg won reelection with just 54 percent of the vote in 2008, suggesting that this district may be more competitive than otherwise thought. In an open seat race, the Democrats might actually have a shot.

But more broadly, this news underscores a key point too often overlooked by the Beltway press: The Republicans are defending more open seats than the Democrats at present. Indeed, at present the GOP faces 15 retirements -- or more than 8 percent of their caucus. These numbers speak volumes, even if the elections-watchers aren't listening, and suggest that Republicans on Capitol Hill may not be as bullish on their chances as some would have you believe.