Going after Scott Brown

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Jan 13, 2010 at 11:40:42 AM EST

SEIU released this ad, with about a $700K ad buy, and there is also an online piece to go along with the television ad that seeks to educate the commonwealth's residents about Scott Brown's values.

This race is about the only thing being blogged about substantially on the conservative blogs-- with a ton of excitement. Not so much on the progressive side-- more like a combination of shock and I-told-you, with both wondering WTF-- that a year into Obama's presidency the political landscape could produce such a huge rebuke.

Rasmussen now has the race at 49-47.

[Update by Jonathan]: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee also went up on air with today:

One has to wonder if Brown peaked too early -- that if he had snuck up on the Democrats he might have had a greater shot at actually winning than he does now, after his emergence caused Democrats and their allies to spend real dollars.

Tags: SEIU (all tags)

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Well I would reserving my judgement about the Rasmussen polls right now. I would be looking for the final poll numbers..

Anything close would validate the polls, anything +- 10% Ras is toast as a neutral poll agency given their closeness and history with the Republicans.

by louisprandtl 2010-01-13 11:53AM | 0 recs

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Heading in to the weekend

If I see Coakley maintaining her small, MOE lead heading into the weekend, then I will be half optimistic about this race.

From what I have read, Ras has a history of sensational polling, only to produce more accurate results close to the end to maintain their good reputation. And it's not all Ras's fault. Special elections are notoriously difficult to poll.

If the race ends for Coakley before electionnight, it will most likely be in the next 72 hours. That's my take.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-13 01:05PM | 0 recs

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RE: Heading in to the weekend

I'm feeling better about this one... national conservatives are now making the MA local news with phoney outrage... This is not waht the Brown camp wants.. they want to seem disconnected from the national teabaggers and such.... Now, the association has become much clearer, IMO. In addition, the unions and DSCC are starting to run actual GOOD ads against Brown seeding some doubt.

by LordMike 2010-01-13 03:43PM | 0 recs

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Where are you in MA?

I'm in the 8th. We seem to have a lot of MA residents here.

I really don't know what is going on, as it can be so hard to guage even in MA. Everyone I would come in contact with is suburban, white, "independent" or "republican". If I went by their accounts, Obama would have lost MA.

The polls will tell all if the momentum is blunted. I just have to wait patiently for them. I'm thinking of doing some phone banking just to try and guage peoples' responses. Do you know when the next polls are coming out?

There's also the math. The GOP seems to max out at about 1.1M votes here in MA. That's the number of votes for McCain in 2008, and Romney in 2002. Coakley got 640,000 primary votes alone. I think it is safe to assume she will have all those votes on Tuesday. Can Martha Coakley find 340,000 people in the state to vote for her who didn't vote for her in the primary? Can Brown get all 1.1 million? The polls will tell us.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-13 05:57PM | 0 recs

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What's your take on this election now?

What's the mood up there in Mass?

by louisprandtl 2010-01-14 10:38AM | 0 recs

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I think this race reflects anti-incumbancy feelings

which is bound to happen in this economy. People are generally anxious and uncertain about the future. Brown seemed to be running a deceptive campaign where he presented himself as a moderate. It is always easier for an insurgent candidate to have a strong message of change. In fact, Brown seems to have lifted Obama's themes and incorporated them into his campaign. It seems like Coakley ran into the problems that Hillary Clinton did, being too complacent and using the inevitabilty aura to project strength. Combine all that with a special election where turnout is always funky and this is not too surprising.

I gave Coakley some money and hope she will win. This just shows Democrats need to start off in the offensive position for 2010 and not wait to let their opponents define themselves.

by Lolis 2010-01-13 12:32PM | 0 recs

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Jerome, do you really think this is a rebuke of Obama?

You're the political consultant, not me, but the latest Obama approval in MA Ras poll numbers sort of deny that. As they deny this is a rebuke of healthcare reform.

If it is a rebuke of anything, it is of the notion of a safe senate seat, which enrages the electorate and dovetails nicely into the arrogance of Washington.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-13 12:59PM | 0 recs

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RE: Jerome, do you really think this is a rebuke of Obama?

I didn't say Obama personally is who is getting the rebuke. This reminds me of the '09 election day, when there was spinning that Obama had nothing to do with the losses on election day. Is it all about Obama? No. Partly? Yes. There's a lot of contributing factors-- he's one of them. And basically, I think his team miffed on the legislative agenda the past year.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-13 05:44PM | 0 recs

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RE:

Hiis numbers with independents are overwhelming and would probably keep this race closer than expected , I thougth Coakley would do better with independents but the huge gap isn't closing , so I disagree he might have picked too soon ...

Spending and deficits would end a lot of careers in November . Those issues are also in play in the race especially with independents...

by lori 2010-01-13 01:12PM | 0 recs

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Independents in MA

A large part of the electorate is unenrolled, but IIRC, these are people identifying as independent, which here usually translates to Republican. Moreover, the number of democrats far exceeds these people, so it is not like a race in other regions.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-13 01:50PM | 0 recs

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Interesting theory, Jonathan

Living in MA, it is sort of hard to tell if Brown has peaked.

It was terrifying to see the amount of energy and momentum on his side. So it's my instinct to see if that energy and momentum can continue unabated, and what if anything, (hopefully) is breaking that momentum. Even if special elections are notoriously hard to poll, my instinct is to look for the polling over the next 72 hours. Brown has closed the gap, but he has yet to break 50 or overtake Coakley, except by 1 in that one PPP poll. Bill Clinton will be here on Friday.

Yes, the best case scenario for Brown would have been to continue to sneak past Coakley all the way to the polls with his energized base, but I don't think that would be a lilely scneario. An energized base is like the white elephant in the room. It's sort of hard to hide. So as long as he became a serious candidate, in MA, this was going to become a noteworth election sooner or later.

I firmly believe in the duality of opportunity in crisis. We knew the Republican attacks were coming. But win or lose, Scott Brown has showed Democrats from what direction those attacks will come from next year.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-13 01:52PM | 0 recs

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They are not trying to manufactrue outrage...

....by claiming that a Coakley aide pushed the same Weekly Standard reporter that harassed DeDe Scozafia (sic)... that may work for the right, but they are already at max energy. Hopefully, this staged stuff will resonate with the MA left who can see now that tha national conservatives are taking over this race form the outside and tring to hijack the election in their state.

These kind of stunts certainly didn't help Hoffman... The right thinks this is a game changer.. I think it just may be... for our side!

by LordMike 2010-01-13 03:40PM | 0 recs