Brown Consultant Rejects a Friendly Wager

Yesterday, after GOP blogger and consultant for Massachusetts Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown razzed me for having contributed to Brown's Democratic opponent Martha Coakley, I replied with a simple proposal:

Interested in a friendly wager? I eat a little crow on [The Next Right] if Brown wins, you do it on MyDD if Coakley wins?

Shortly thereafter I asked Ruffini, "Or would you expect a point spread in a friendly wager over the outcome of the Brown/Coakley race?" Ruffini's response a few hours later:

If I come on MyDD, I'll be happy to repost this: [a link to a post on how Paul Hackett's loss in the 2005 Ohio special congressional election was a win for the Democrats -- clearly not a crow-eating post]

I took this as a rejection of my friendly wager, replying to Ruffini, "If you were confident in a Brown win, why wouldn't you agree to a wager that could have me eating crow on your site?" Matt Ortega similarly asked, "Brown consultant @PatrickRuffini refuses to wager Brown would win?"

Ruffini tried to flip things around, stating that the fact that I was assigning even odds to the race -- which I wasn't, as evidenced by my tweet asking if Ruffini expected a point-spread in such a wager -- was the story. "[A] Brown win would be a real miracle," tweeted Ruffini.

I don't know what the outcome of Tuesday's election in Massachusetts is going to be. Nobody does. But I was willing to put myself on the line under the belief that Coakley, the Democratic nominee, would pull out a victory. Ruffini, a leading GOP blogger, wasn't willing to do the same for the candidate he supports (and indeed is doing work for). And I think that speaks volumes.

Tags: MA-Sen, Senate 2010, Massachusetts, Special Elections, Patrick Ruffini, Jonathan Singer, MyDD, The Next Right (all tags)



Are you confident?

How many digits will you give in the spread?

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-13 05:45PM | 0 recs
RE: Are you confident?

I would offer 2 points.... which isn't saying much, but I think the margin will be 2-5% in favor of Coakley.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-13 05:49PM | 0 recs
RE: Are you confident?

I was thinking today that some sort of game for picking elections with spreads and all might be fun.  All virtual points of course :) Everyone starts off with a certain amount of points and can spend it on certain races with different levels of payoffs depends on the magnitude of the race and # of bets being placed.

by Kyle Shank 2010-01-13 05:58PM | 0 recs
RE: Are you confident?

He wasn't interested in a wager with or without a spread, but I was open to negotiate.

by Jonathan Singer 2010-01-13 06:51PM | 0 recs


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