Former Bushie Portman Trailing Bad in OH-Sen

If the Republicans are poised for major gains in 2010, shouldn't one of their top Senate recruits in the country be leading, or at least tied, rather than trailing badly in an open seat race they're defending?

Quinnipiac survey of 1,074 Ohio voters, September 10-13, margin of error +/- 3.0%

  • Democrat Lee Fisher 42, Republican Rob Portman 31
  • Democrat Jennifer Brunner 39, Republican Rob Portman 34

Rob Portman is the man the Republicans wanted to run for this seat. He's a former Congressman representing a more competitive portion of Ohio, and he has a huge campaign warchest of close to $5 million more than $4 million (buoyed by money left over from his days in Congress). He also is closely tied into the Republican establishment, having served in not one but two high-ranking positions within the Bush administration. Yet he's trailing by a double-digit margin in a state carried by the GOP twice out of the past three presidential elections in a race opened up by the retirement of a Republican Senator? Please, someone again explain to me how this is shaping up to be a great cycle for the Republicans.

Tags: OH-Sen, Ohio, Senate 2010 (all tags)

Comments

13 Comments

Good year for Democrats and progressives

After 8 disastrous years of Republican rule, most Americans learned their lesson and won't be voting for Republicans for a while. The recession shows how much our country has become dominated by greedy rich people and corporations at the expense of the rest of us. And now the Republicans have shown themselves as complete puppets of the power elite or complete lunatics or at least completely willing to tolerate lunacy in their support of the power elite. They seem incapable of learning or changing.

If Obama actually works for real change and is able to pull our economy out of recession and pass a decent healthcare reform bill and if he doesn't get caught in the Afghanistan quagmire, destroy our civil liberties too much, or get too cozy with Wall Street, I think Democrats will not have any problem winning election in 2010.

I'm hoping that this time around a few of the craziest Republicans (Michele Bachman, Joe Wilson, Jean Schmidt, Eric Cantor, etc.) will be defeated, a few "moderate" Republicans like LaTourette will also be defeated, and a lot of ConservaDems who have shown us that they are corporatists will be replaced by true progressives. This would help convince Congress and President Obama to fight for progressive ideals and would be a big boost in getting us real change. Maybe, finally, all the damage that has been done over the past 30 years could be undone.

by RandomNonviolence 2009-09-16 10:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Good year for Democrats and progressives

The problem is that a decent healthcare reform bill is highly unlikely and while the economy will be recovering, unemployment will still likely be over 9%.  

by Kent 2009-09-16 09:30PM | 0 recs
oh, so not 15%

like you were predicting a couple of weeks ago?

by DTOzone 2009-09-17 12:32AM | 0 recs
Re: oh, so not 15%

Just stop.  I never predicted 15%.  

by Kent 2009-09-17 01:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Good year for Democrats and progressives

I kind of guessed that our little ray of sunshine would have something to say about this poll.

by Khun David 2009-09-17 05:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Former Bushie Portman Trailing Bad in OH-Sen
Well, it's midterm you see, and the party out of power always gains at midterm.
Besides, Obamama doesn't belong to the media's party.
by spirowasright 2009-09-16 11:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Former Bushie Portman Trailing Bad in OH-Sen

The GM bailout helped us big time... one of the few places that the bailout was popular... in addition, the last polling took place during a brutal state budget battle, which altered the numbers.

by LordMike 2009-09-16 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Former Bushie Portman Trailing Bad in OH-Sen

Well to be fair we've had recent polls showing incumbent Dems trailing in CT, NV and CO, and vulnerable in Arkansas, and the GOP ahead again in NH. I don't think those polls mean anything at this point, an improvement in the economy and a decent healthcare bill could swing all those races back in our direction, but right now I'd have to say OH looks like the outlier -- along with MO.

by thesleepthief 2009-09-16 12:49PM | 0 recs
Not necessarily

like LordMike said, the GM bailout helped Ohio, but was unpopular in places where it didn't help; Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada for example.

The CO, NV, NH numbers could be a response to spending, all three of those states are historically small government, anti-spending.

Missouri and Ohio are historically populist states where big government and spending is usually popular.

But if and when the economy improves, none of that will matter.

by DTOzone 2009-09-16 01:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Former Bushie Portman Trailing Bad in OH-Sen

It'll be a GOP year because Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg say it will be.  After all, they're never wrong, right?

by rayspace 2009-09-16 01:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Former Bushie Portman Trailing Bad in OH-Sen

Jerome also said so. He has never ever been wrong.

by Lolis 2009-09-17 08:39AM | 0 recs
GOTV

Polls don't win elections.

The rightwing has been stirring the base up into a frenzy of anger, hate and fear.  The purpose is to get them to the polls in the midterms.  It will work.

We don't have the level of emotion riding on next year's elections that they do so we must all work very hard on our own GOTV efforts.  If we don't mobilize ourselves, the nutty minority will take away some of our seats next year.

Be prepared!

by GFORD 2009-09-16 09:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Former Bushie Portman Trailing Bad in OH-Sen

    "He's a former Congressman representing a more competitive portion of Ohio"

    More competitive than what? Portman represented the second district, Bush's best district in Ohio in 2000. It had a PVI of +13 for the Republicans in last year's (pre election) rankings, making it the most Republican district in Ohio. His successor in the House is Jean Schmidt.

    Portman never had to appeal to Democrats or independents to keep this seat. Other than his fundraising ability, it's surprising to me that anyone would consider him a strong candidate.

by Ron Thompson 2009-09-17 07:41AM | 0 recs

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