IA-Sen: Might Bruce Braley Take On Chuck Grassley?

Two Democratic former state legislators, Tom Fiegen and Bob Krause, are working on 2010 Senate bids to face Republican deather Chuck "pull the plug on grandma" Grassley.  Despite Grassley's increasingly Looney Tunes demeanor, he does have just over $3.8 million in the bank as of the end of June.

Still, the Des Moines Register ran the following:

I'm told by mostly reliable sources there is a well-known mystery candidate who's about 75 percent ready to join the race. The mystery candidate supposedly has name recognition and money.

The item led Politico's Scorecard blog to speculate:

Rep. Bruce Braley's (D-Iowa) sharp recent criticism of Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) is bound to get the rumor mills cranking about a possible challenge in 2010.

While there's not a lot of evidence of Grassley's vulnerability--he hasn't won with less than 60 percent since winning the seat in 1980--he's taken some hits recently, most notably for his "pull the plug on Grandma" town hall comments. ...

Braley, of course, would fit that bill [the Des Moines Register's item] as a high-profile congressman with a background that includes heading the Iowa Trial Lawyers Association.

There's a certain Iowa political logic to a Braley challenge as well. When Iowa was sending mostly Republican House members to Congress, one of them invariably challenged the state's junior senator, Democrat Tom Harkin (Harkin himself rose from the House by defeating an incumbent senator in 1984).

Now, three of the five-member House delegation are Democrats and it may be Grassley's turn.

Congressman Bruce Braley isn't raising money like he's preparing for an uphill, statewide campaign.  He had just under $350,000 in his campaign account as of the end of June, or about one-eleventh of Grassley's money.  Still, with Grassley's high profile role as a roadblock to health care reform, Congressman Braley could probably raise adequate funds.  On top of which, as founder of the U.S. House's Populist Caucus, he could probably turn the health care debate and other issue messaging battles against Grassley better than any other Democrat in Iowa.

Keep in mind, Grassley is not unbeatable.  A December 2008 Research 2000 poll of a hypothetical IA-Sen match-up between Grassley and Democratic former Governor Tom Vilsack came up a statistical dead heat, with Grassley only narrowly leading 48-44.  And that was before Grassley got in bed with the deathers, serving as a top roadblock to health care reform.

Of course, all of this is just speculation; but, if Congressman Braley took the plunge, this could become a top tier battle, especially if Grassley's rhetoric grows more and more outrageous.  Definitely worth keeping an eye on.  So who wants to jump on that Draft Braley effort?

For daily news and analysis on the U.S. Senate races around the country, regularly read Senate Guru.

Tags: 2010 senate, Bruce Braley, Chuck Grassley, health care reform, IA-Sen (all tags)

Comments

14 Comments

This would be really stupid

Grassley is hugely popular in Iowa and in what is almost certain to be a Republican year, would likely win easily.  Sure, he probably wouldnt win his usual 70%+ this time, but he would still probably win by double digits.  Not to mention, it would give Democrats yet another House seat to worry about.  

by Kent 2009-08-17 11:57AM | 0 recs
SenateGuru you're wrong, Grassley's unbeatable....

Yes, Vilsack could have given him a run for his money, but even then would have been at least a slight underdog.

But with Vilsack out, no one else can beat Grassley, absent Grassley pulling a Bunning and going completely crazy--which he won't do.

I hope Braley doesn't challenge him, it would be stupid.  Braley is young enough to wait and bide his time, with potential open Senate seats in either/both 2014 and 2016 and an potentially open Governor's office in 2014.

by DCCyclone 2009-08-17 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: SenateGuru you're wrong, Grassley's unbeatable

Grassley's unbeatable?

Well, your wife said the same thing.

The point being that maybe Grassley has already begun his descent into Bunningdom.

by Senate Guru 2009-08-17 02:48PM | 0 recs
If Grassley is unbeatable

after opposing health care reform in a state Obama won by 10 points, then our democracy is not existent.

Because that's how a democracy is SUPPOSED to work.

by DTOzone 2009-08-17 03:52PM | 0 recs
No one is unbeatable.

Grassley's a tough opponent, he's worked his whole career to make sure that enough potential voters benefited from his pork to cement a strong position on the battlefeild, that much is for sure.  But he's also a high profile opponent of healthcare reform, something millions upon millions in this country badly need and want.  Add to that the stupid shit the old codger is letting come out of his mouth these days and I'd say he's looking way more vulnerable than ever before.  If Braley wants to go for it, I'd encourage him to do it.  In politics, you usually only get one shot, and our House majority is solid enough as is, never mind the fact anyone who takes an honest look at the numbers inevitably concludes we stand to gain seats in that chamber.  So yeah, worse things happens is Braley becomes another Tom Allen, but getting rid of an old fart like Grassley is more than worth that risk.

by ARDem 2009-08-17 02:34PM | 0 recs
ARDem, dude, please come down to earth......

We're not going to have a net gain of House seats next November.  We'll pick up a few seats, and lose more than we gain, for a net loss.  I've believed all along that we have a very good shot at keeping our House majority at 250 after the midterm, based on the economy improving which I fully expect to happen in time to earn voter trust, and I'm more optimistic than nonpartisan pundits.  

But let's not go into fantasyland.

On health care, the public is not currently definitively with us on the wingnut scare tactics in which Grassley now is participating, and we have to actually get a bill enacted into law to benefit politically and be able to say wingnuts overplayed their hand.

On the House, we're going to suffer a net loss.  We've got a few in dark red districts who most likely are dead meat, especially guys who needed last year's Democratic turnout surge from traditionally low-turnout groups.

And Grassley is not vulnerable just because we wish it so.

by DCCyclone 2009-08-17 06:14PM | 0 recs
Re: ARDem, dude, please come down to earth......

There is no way we gain seats in the House.  We have districts like AL-02, ID-01, NM-02, CO-04, MS-01, PA-07, MD-01, and probably OH-01 that we have an extreme uphill battle at holding and are probably no better than even to hold on in another 10 districts.  If we can stay above 250 in the House, it will be a great year.  

by Kent 2009-08-17 06:35PM | 0 recs
CO-04? PA-07? OH-01?

What are you just picking districts out of thin air now?

by DTOzone 2009-08-17 09:01PM | 0 recs
Re: CO-04? PA-07? OH-01?

I am going by the environment and candidates. PA-07 is probably gone with Meehan running and we wont get the black turnout needed to defeat Chabot in OH-01.  

by Kent 2009-08-18 06:37AM | 0 recs
count me out of this draft effort

Braley is in a safe House district and serves on an important committee (Energy and Commerce). He can do a lot of good in the House while he waits for Grassley or Harkin to retire. That would be the perfect time for him to run for Senate--not in 2010.

If a mystery Democrat wants to get in this race, I hope it's someone who can self-finance and wouldn't be giving up another elected office to run.

by desmoinesdem 2009-08-17 04:43PM | 0 recs
Self financers rarely pull it off.

Be it Ross Perot, Steve Forbes, Ned Lamont, Bruce Lunsford, or that nutty mayor from NY state that ran against Hillary, self fundraisers tend to fail miserably as money doesn't equal a good candidate.  A better option is someone who can raise a lot of money from small donors because that demonstrates an appeal to the electorate.  Besides, this candidate may not be Braley.  It could be several other contenders, from David Loebsack to Patty Judge.  We don't know yet.

by ARDem 2009-08-17 05:18PM | 0 recs
no one will pull it off

against Grassley next year. I'm sorry, he's got 30 years of good constituent service standing behind his brand. The best we can hope for is a vigorous Democratic candidate to reduce the crossover voting for Grassley. That would be excellent--more straight-ticket Democratic voting would help our statehouse candidates.

Iowa blogger John Deeth has a good post up about this speculation. He floats the name of Christie Vilsack, which would be a lot of fun. Some Republicans are reportedly worried about Mike Blouin, a former member of Congress who directed the state economic development department under Vilsack and narrowly lost the 2006 gubernatorial primary to Culver.

by desmoinesdem 2009-08-17 06:43PM | 0 recs
See and that's a problem

he can go around being a deather and slamming healthcare reform all over his blue state and still get reeleceted?

That's not how a democracy is supposed to work.

by DTOzone 2009-08-17 08:59PM | 0 recs
As a transplanted Iowan (now in Virginia) who...

...still cares very much about the politics of my home state where my mom and two big brothers still live and vote, I agree with you completely, desmoinesdem.

by DCCyclone 2009-08-17 06:16PM | 0 recs

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