Final PPP poll before the VA vote

by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Jun 07, 2009 at 07:08:03 PM EDT

The PPP model is expecting a turnout of 300K for Tuesday's primary in Virginia. There are others whom are modeling a turnout of 165-185K (here's one credible source). Now, those present radically different models to base an election on, here's what PPP has:

Deeds is now at 40%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 26%, and Brian Moran at 24%. Since PPP's last poll Deeds has gained 13% while his opponents have each gone up by just 2%.

The story goes something like this: Moran has been in the range of the mid 20's throughout PPP's polling, with a slim lead over McAuliffe and Deeds way back; then McAuliffe goes up and Moran takes him on & cuts him down to size; Deeds has waited and then gets the WaPost endorsement to start moving up as McAuliffe falls; Moran upticks a bit.

Three-way races can be like that, but the big caveat here is that PPP is relying on a lot of Independents and Republicans voting in the Democratic primary, and that Deeds leads among voters in NoVA over Moran. That's certainly not what the Moran campaign is finding with its huge ongoing effort of phone-banking:

Yesterday, the Moran campaign received some of the best results of the campaign and saw a notable uptick in support while phone banking likely primary voters. The campaign made 36,478 calls to highly likely primary voters in Northern Virginia and saw Moran's consistent lead there surge after information about the records of his two opponents was made clear. In Hampton Roads, Moran's canvass calls reached 23,454 likely primary voters and found that Moran's support has increased significantly, moving the race into a virtual three-way tie.

In Richmond, Moran's canvass reached 22,399 likely voters and found that Moran is now within the margin of one of his opponents, while leading the other by several percentage points. And in Roanoke, where Moran just last week began his advertising campaign, his support has risen 150 percent among likely voters.

I really am not too excited about the conservative Democrat Creigh Deeds. Deeds has really come out of nowhere, and is a blank slate to most voters. He's not very environmental, being in favor of offshore oil drilling and new coal plants, and he's backwards on gay marriage. That said, he's better by far than Terry McAuliffe and way better than Bob McDonnell. As PPP shows, he captured the huge anti-McAuliffe vote here in the state in their polling, which he owes to Moran for creating. Without Moran beating the shit out of McAuliffe, there is no Deeds surge in the polls, but that's 3-way primaries. It's not issue-based at all, with the poll finding liberal NoVA Democratic voters backing the conservative-- just a surge of electability vs McAuliffe.

A 14-16% lead seems unbeatable, but remember that PPP is predicting a huge turnout too. I know both McAuliffe and Moran have much better field organizations than Deeds, by far-- its not even close. Deeds has gotten all the breaks in the polls; now, does he have the votes? The turnout will tell. There may also be a final SUSA poll out Monday.

The updated Pollster graph has a still very close race with Moran within 6% of Deeds.

Tags: Brain Moran, Creigh Deeds, Terry McAuliffe, VA 2009 (all tags)

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seems like anyone could win

Exciting race. I hope everyone can unite around the winner. What do you think, Jerome?

by John DE 2009-06-07 08:17PM | 0 recs

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My $0.02

I think Deeds is easiest candidate to unite around. He's the second choice of both Moran and McAuliffe supporters and has stayed relatively clean in the battle thus far. There is a lot of animosity built up between the two who led throughout the campaign.

Had either one of them not treated Deeds as an afterthought, the race would probably look very different now.

Either way I agree with Doug Wilder, that no matter who comes out of the Dem primary is going to be the underdog against Bob McDonnell.

by Vox Populi 2009-06-08 01:32AM | 0 recs

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yes

If its Deeds, yea, definitely. The McAuliffe supporters will cheer about Moran not winning, and vice versa.

And if Moran wins, it will be a come from behind victory that would propel on to a big momentum wave.

McAuliffe's negatives are so high among Democrats, that it would be the most difficult, but not really among the most visible Democrats in the state.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-08 02:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: Final PPP poll before the VA vote

I haven't really followed this primary that much even though its just next door an it seems interesting.

I like Terry because of his ties to the Clinton's but he is not a good fit for these parts...

I always doubted his lead would hold..

Deeds who I don't know much about seems like the type of candidate that would win in Virginia , if he could stay competitive in the north ...

From the little i have heard in just the last couple of days on local news , it seems he would win and I don't mind his positions on some issues.

Terry would have to get over it like Hillary Clinton did..

by lori 2009-06-07 09:57PM | 0 recs

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Re: Final PPP poll before the VA vote

This may be a blessing in disguise. Virginia is just a tad more conservative than other states. Deeds seems better positioned to have a chance in the general against McDonnell.

I think the WaPo endorsement was a HUGE deal. Sometimes it is easy to dismiss newspaper endorsements, but not only is the WaPo not any old rag, but the actual sound reasoning behind the endorsement is what catapulted Deeds to the forefront.

by devilrays 2009-06-08 02:16AM | 0 recs

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Re: Final PPP poll before the VA vote

It's disappointing that Deeds is backwards on so many issues. Yet, I doubt issues like same-sex marriage will come up in Virginia in the next couple years. It'll probably wait until at least 2012.

I've written some on the VA Gov. Race here

by Natch 2009-06-08 04:57AM | 0 recs

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He's a blank slate?

He's the only one in the race whose run statewide! Gimme a break...

by ChrisG7 2009-06-08 06:33AM | 0 recs

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SUSA--Deeds pulling away

42-30-21 for Deeds. Guess who's in third--Moran.

by esconded 2009-06-08 08:24AM | 0 recs

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esconded, a link please?

by DCCyclone 2009-06-08 09:15AM | 0 recs

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Re: esconded, a link please?

www.politicalwire.com

by esconded 2009-06-08 09:52AM | 0 recs

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I get excited about my party, not...

...individual candidates, except in rare exceptions.

Obama was such an exception.

For me, Deeds is not.

I want to beat McDonnell. Period. And of our 3 choices, only Deeds can. And for that reason alone, I'm "excited" about Deeds' momentum.

by DCCyclone 2009-06-08 09:14AM | 0 recs

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Re: I get excited about my party, not...

I don't think there's anything to stand on in saying only Deeds can win.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-08 10:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: I get excited about my party, not...

Especially considering the fact he already lost to McDonnell once...

by Vox Populi 2009-06-08 01:13PM | 0 recs

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Deeds is the worst fundraiser in this race

That means a lot in competing in the general. It's not fair, but Moran has a lock on fundraising in NOVA, and McAuliffe is raising a ton from people that are important in national Democratic party politics.

That said, I hope Deeds wins. I think he has a better shot at winning the general than the other two candidates, and three Democrats winning the governorship of Virginia in a row, with wildly different backgrounds, would be great for the party.

by West of the Fields 2009-06-08 08:50PM | 0 recs