VA Gov: All tied up

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 07:10:05 PM EDT

I told you this was going to come down to the final week with all three candidates tied up, and here we are. The three latest polls show Deeds, McAuliffe, and Moran all within single-digits of each other. If you are willing to bet on a slim lead within the MOE of a poll, you better be playing with the money of someone else.

The average of the last 4 polls from different pollsters puts the race at:
McAuliffe 30
Moran 25
Deeds 24

Politico has a good 40 something minute spot to watch:

Yes Politico, Moran is the progressive Democrat in the race.


Terry McAuliffe is betting on spending the most money.
Creigh Deeds is betting on a newspaper endorsement.
Brian Moran is betting that being the proven progressive, along with having the majority of the state's Mayoral endorsements (besides hundreds of other officials), and the largest online-offline grassroots campaign team, will push him over the top next Tuesday.

Tags: Brain Moran, Creigh Deeds, Terry McAuliffe, VA 2009 (all tags)

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33 Comments

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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

So where's the link to donate to Moran's campaign?

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-03 07:26PM | 0 recs
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ask him yourself

Go to the 42:15 mark on this video. He gives out his cell number.

by ChrisG7 2009-06-03 07:29PM | 0 recs
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Re: ask him yourself

I don't have international access to mobile phone networks that I know of, is there a website which would accept VISA donations?

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-03 07:37PM | 0 recs
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Re: ask him yourself

Found it.

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-03 07:40PM | 0 recs
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Re: ask him yourself
Moran also leads in ActBlue donations:
http://www.actblue.com/directory/VA/all/ state-gov
by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-03 08:10PM | 0 recs
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703-901-7207

703-901-7207!
703-901-7207!
What was he thinking?!

Disclaimer: I am a Virginia voter and have not yet made up my made as to who I'm voting for next week.

by CrazyDrumGuy 2009-06-03 07:57PM | 0 recs
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Re: 703-901-7207

Your username made me think of the Moran add where he beats McDonnell like a drum.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-03 08:08PM | 0 recs
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Re: 703-901-7207

The cell number thing is pretty funny, I'm guessing he's getting a new number now, lol.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-03 08:15PM | 0 recs
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Re: 703-901-7207
Yesterday, Wikipedia frontpaged an article about Nixon's Checkers speech in which it mentioned that Nixon forgot to include the mailing address in his closing pitch for letters of support, and was rendered despondent by this failure.  Today, this.
Coincidence, or mad Internet skilz?
by Endymion 2009-06-04 02:09PM | 0 recs
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One prediction

Terry McAuliffe will NOT win this primary.

After watching the first question, it's pretty obvious.  It's going to be very close between a fast-closing Deeds (who I underestimated) and Moran.  We'll see if Deeds can ride the WaPo endorsement one more week.

by esconded 2009-06-03 08:18PM | 0 recs
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Nah

If it's a race, it's between Deeds (who has the momentum) and McAuliffe (who has boatloads of money). Moran has fallen back behind both of them, and has no significant support outside outside of the 8th CD.

by johnny longtorso 2009-06-04 04:19AM | 0 recs
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You're right

ANOTHER poll today with Moran in third...

by ChrisG7 2009-06-04 08:10AM | 0 recs
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Re: You're right

I believe that McAuliffe is slipping to third... we'll see who's right.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-04 08:10AM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

I was in Alexandria this weekend and Moran was definitely winning the sign war, although I gather that's to be expected.  McAuliffe had a decent number of signs (some of which were just HUGE) and I never saw a single Deeds sign.

In other parts of NoVa I barely saw any signs at all.  Maybe 2 or 3, tops, over the course of an entire weekend.

The only ads I remember seeing on TV were for McDonnell, whom I've never seen before, but instantly gave me a very strong George W. Bush vibe.

by Steve M 2009-06-03 08:21PM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

Yea, I went out with a few colleagues and covered from Old Town to Mt Vernon along the Potomac, east of Jefferson Hwy with about 120 signs a week ago :)

One Deeds sign has been spotted in NoVA but alas, it failed http://bit.ly/1367yz

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-03 08:25PM | 0 recs
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Ask Sean Quinn at 538.com about sign wars......

Sean, a former campaign professional himself, did a few diaries last fall about yard sign and other chum, and how useless they are toward anything except making the displayer feel good.

I've got bumper stickers on my car, I had Obama and Warner signs in my frontyard in a politically mixed McLean neighborhood 10 days before the election, but I don't pretend those things moved votes, except maybe to make the occasional Obama leaner feel not so alone.  But I also knocked on doors up to a dozen times, and THAT moved votes.

by DCCyclone 2009-06-04 12:44PM | 0 recs
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Re: Ask Sean Quinn at 538.com

I'm not suggesting yard signs are indicative of anything except the support of the person who displays them.  Actually, I'm not suggesting anything at all, it's just that I happened to be in Virginia so I thought I would mention what I saw.  

by Steve M 2009-06-04 01:19PM | 0 recs
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Re: Ask Sean Quinn......
I have some small expertise re yardsigns myself, but the first thing I should point out is that Sean was specifically talking about situations where name recognition was at 100%.  Chum was useless after the long primary, I agree.  There are however corner cases where chum has value even with high name recognition.  First, blanket signage functions as an intimidation/anti-intimidation tactic, communicating to supporters of other candidates that they are other and thereby demotivating them while simultaneously motivating supporters.  This is typically only useful in places with a history of more vigorous political intimidation.  Second, chum can be a reward, providing supporters with a kind of participation trophy.  This is typically only useful in populations with a high concentration memorabilia collectors, i.e. a combination of repeat activists and people with lots of free storage space.  Third and most important, chum is valuable in places where people expect it; when distributing yardsigns is simply "the way we do things 'round here," your campaign will establish a crippling reputation for incompetence if it refuses to put a lot of effort into signage.  At total name recognition, there are very few places where the implementation of these observations will outweigh the loss of effort incurred when supporters have the option of putting up a sign and saying "There! I've done my part, have a nice campaign!" but you do find them.  I would expect the traditionally better-organized counties (the NoVAs, around Richmond, Albemarle) and most of the county-level municipalities are prime spots for chum.
In any case, the VA Governor's primary isn't going to have universal name rec.
by Endymion 2009-06-04 02:03PM | 0 recs
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Good post, Endymion, and I agree that...

...name rec is hugely important to the usefulness of yard signs.

I have a Margi Vanderhye sticker on my car now, she's the Dem Delegate, a good liberal, representing me in swing district VA HD-34.  No doubt that sticker is worth more than the Mark Warner sticker I will peel off in favor of a Deeds-or-McAuliffe-or-Moran sticker on June 10th.  I knocked on doors for Margi last weekend, it was fun and a bit surreal given that NO volunteers are door-knocking for Delegate races right now.

by DCCyclone 2009-06-04 06:54PM | 0 recs
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Re: Good post, Endymion, and I agree that...

The Moran signs are quite good, with the date of the election prominent on them, esp for NoVA-- helps a ton for people to see it 2-3 weeks out and plan for voting.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-04 07:29PM | 0 recs
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Re: Good post, Endymion, and I agree that...

I must have seen 100 Moran yard signs this weekend and yet I finished the weekend having no idea what the date of the election is, so I guess it wasn't "prominent" enough for me!

by Steve M 2009-06-04 10:07PM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

I'm still unsure as to my vote. I was leaning towards Deeds, primarily because I really don't like Terry McAuliffe. But then I saw the endorsement of Terry by the Virginia League of Conservation Voters. The League said McAuliffe "has a clear and complete understanding of the interconnections between land use, transportation, and energy generation and transmission."

Still unsure.

by Bob Miller 2009-06-04 03:00AM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

5% MOE?  Seriously?

by lojasmo 2009-06-04 03:04AM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

For what?

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-04 05:10AM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

Funny how pollster's average puts McAuliffe and Deeds tied and Moran back in third.

by johnny longtorso 2009-06-04 04:16AM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

Given how unpredictable the turnout would be-- a 4% difference is nothing to bank on.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-04 05:10AM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

Agreed. Dems are really apathetic about this race. It's not going to approach Webb-Miller levels of non-interest, but it'll be close.

by Dale Johnson 007 2009-06-04 06:19AM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

The Race for Governor is really getting tight in the end.  I've written some about it but I think it'll all come down to who can turn out an extra dozen supporters or so.

by Natch 2009-06-04 04:53AM | 0 recs
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Wait...

Why are you including the Moran internal poll in the mix on your pollster chart? They didn't even release the top lines to the public...they released the numbers for their formulation of people who were "REALLY" likely to vote...because those numbers were better...

This is anybody's race. I'll give you that. Neither of the three candidates has excited anybody other than their friends and relatives... But I wouldn't bank on that poll you included as evidence...

by Dale Johnson 007 2009-06-04 06:18AM | 0 recs
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Re: Wait...

It's just as reliable a poll, and Pollster.com includes it too. I mean, stick around, we'll see all the polls show its a tight race within 5 percent.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-04 08:11AM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

Who the hell is Deeds ???.

Watching on local tv,it seems he would pull it off .

Terry seems to be fading daily...

by lori 2009-06-04 09:02AM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

Deeds sounds like your kind of Dem, Lori!  I think he is the Southerner in the race, hehe.

by Steve M 2009-06-04 01:18PM | 0 recs
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Re: VA Gov: All tied up

I'm really not feeling good about this race. The Dems beat the crap out of each other and voters might be getting tired of Democratic governors. Republicans will point to this as some kind of trend. There were about three or four special elections in NOVA and the Richmond area where we failed to get energized and lost a couple of county seats and almost lost a state house seat and the chairmanship in Fairfax County. We need an infusion of energy there or we could be in trouble.

by RandyMI 2009-06-04 03:11PM | 0 recs

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