Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

The UK Guardian has great coverage of the elections today in Iran with continuous updates. Turnout is reported to be quite heavy and that it is believed to favor the candidacy of Mir Hosssein Mousavi. Reports indicate a turnout of over 80% and likely to break the record set in 1997. While the results won't be released until tomorrow, both sides are claiming victory. Al-Jazeera released the above interview with Mr. Mousavi in which the former Prime Minister hinted at direct talks with the United States should he be elected.

From the BBC:

The two main candidates in Iran's presidential election have claimed victory, after extended voting as huge numbers of people turned out to vote.

Reformist challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi told a news conference that he had won by a substantial margin.

However, state media said incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won, and electoral officials said partial results put him ahead on 69%.

But Mr Mousavi has complained of some voting irregularities.

He said there had been a shortage of ballot papers and millions of people had been denied the right to vote.

His election monitors were not allowed enough access to polling stations, he added, saying he would deal seriously with any fraud.

From the New York Times:

Polls were originally due to close at 6 p.m. (9:30 a.m. in New York), but voting was extended by several hours because of very high turnout, according to news service reports. Initial results are not expected until hours after the polls close.

The strong showing appeared to be driven in part by a broad movement against Mr. Ahmadinejad that has spurred vast opposition rallies in Iran's major cities over the past few weeks. Many reform-oriented voters stayed away from the polls in 2005, and now say they are determined not to repeat the mistake. Most say they support Mir Hussein Moussavi, a moderate and former prime minister who is the leading opposition candidate.

There are four candidates in the race, and if none wins more than 50 percent of the vote on Friday, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff a week later. Most analysts have assumed that the election will go to a second round, but in recent days, the extraordinary public support for Mr. Moussavi has led to predictions that he could win the presidency in the first round on Friday. The other contenders are Mehdi Karroubi, a reformist cleric; and Mohsen Rezai, a conservative and the former commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. All other presidential aspirants were weeded out months ago by Iran's clerical elite.

Iran's president is less powerful than the supreme leader -- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- who has final authority over affairs of state. But the president wields great power over domestic affairs, and Mr. Ahmadinejad has skillfully used the office as a bully pulpit both at home and abroad.


More as we hear it.

Update [2009-6-12 18:4:54 by Charles Lemos]: According to Press TV, the Islamic Republic's English language service, nearly 32 million Iranians cast their votes.
According to Press TV's correspondent at the Election Commission Headquarters, Gissoo Ahmadi, based on unofficial statistics, out of 46 million eligible voters, nearly 32 million voted.

That would make the turnout just shy of 70%. Still extraordinary.

Update [2009-6-12 19:28:58 by Charles Lemos]: The New York Times has another update.
State media declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner of Iran's election but challenger Mirhossein Mousavi alleged irregularities and claimed victory for himself. The state election commission said early Saturday that Ahmadinejad, a hardline conservative, was ahead with 66 percent of the votes in Friday's election after 21 million ballots were counted. Ahmadinejad's main challenger, moderate former prime minister Mirhossein Mousavi, had 31 percent, according to the commission, which is part of the Interior Ministry. It said 61 percent of all ballot boxes had now been counted. The official news agency IRNA said: "Dr Ahmadinejad, by winning most votes at the 10th presidential election, has secured his victory." It said results would be announced at 8 a.m. (0330 GMT).

I still find a 66 to 31 split hard to believe.

Update [2009-6-12 19:51:17 by Charles Lemos]: Here's a short story from Radio Free Europe on the shutting down of the SMS network in Iran.
On a day when millions of Iranians went to the polls to vote for president, cell phone users found themselves without the ability to send and receive SMS text messages. Radio Farda, RFE/RL's Persian Service, confirmed that, at first, text messages from the two reformist presidential candidates were blocked from reaching supporters on Thursday evening. Eventually, Iran's entire SMS infrastructure went down. As of Friday night, service has not been restored. An official from Iran's state telecommunications company confirmed the SMS disruption and said, vaguely, that it may have been caused by "other entities" in the government. Also, Radio Farda has learned that at least five pro-reformist websites have been blocked. And the headquarters of a pro-reformist Internet TV program has been attacked by an unknown group and has stopped its broadcasts. Radio Farda's ongoing coverage includes more than 50 experts, reporters and ordinary people inside Iran as well as live reports from expats voting in Europe, Australia, Malaysia, and elsewhere. Radio Farda is also providing instant updates and analysis on its website, Facebook and Twitter

Note: Radio Farda is the Farsi language service established by the US government in 2002 to "support free-market economy and democracy" in Iran.

Update [2009-6-12 22:8:34 by Charles Lemos]: Here are numbers courtesy of the IRNA, the official news agency of the Islamic Republic of Iran:

According to the latest results of Iran’s Presidential Election, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has got 65.96 percent of the votes.

Head of the Elections Headquarters Kamran Daneshjoo told reporters Saturday morning that 31,369 ballot boxes had been counted until 3:40 am which were 68 percent of the total boxes. According to Daneshjoo, out of 24,122,777 counted votes, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has got 15,913,256 votes which constitutes 65.96 percent of the total counted votes. Mir Hossein Moussavi has got 7,526,117 votes which is 31.19 percent, Mohsen Rezaee has got 470,549 votes that is 1.95 percent and Mahdi Karroubi has got only 212,855 votes which is 0.88 percent.

I still find the margin to be surprising large given the polarization that had been reported in the international media in the run up to the election. I'll have some updates on what Iranian blogs are saying after dinner.

Tags: Iran Election 2009, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Mousavi (all tags)

Comments

27 Comments

Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

Hmmm...:


Election Day draws to a close in Iran with the Guardian Council printing more ballot papers in the heat of a seemingly unprecedented voter turnout.

The Guardian Council, an influential body tasked with overseeing the election process, announced that a new amount of ballot papers have been printed in the final hours of the presidential polls.

More ballot papers printed over high turnout PressTV (Iran) 12 Jun 09

'A new amount of ballot papers have been printed in the final hours?'  I guess so.  Busy, busy hands.

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-12 02:02PM | 0 recs
It's a mess. Khamenei wants Ahmadi and that

might be the problem...

by louisprandtl 2009-06-12 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

Ahmadinejad is winning by close to 70%?

That seems to run counter to a lot of what I heard, most folks said it would at least be closer then that?

There are four candidates in the race, and if none wins more than 50 percent of the vote on Friday, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff a week later.

Gee, then it sure would be convenient for Ahmadeinejad to win 60%+ in the first round?

by WashStateBlue 2009-06-12 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

That would be hard to believe in a four way race.

by Charles Lemos 2009-06-12 02:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

A couple of things:

1.  Could be a rigged election.
2.  Expect the GOp to say "I told you so."

I'm wondering if John Bolton's op-ed was meant
to swing the election to Ahmadinejad so the neocons could say Iran is still a dangerous threat.  Just my two cents.

by esconded 2009-06-12 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

The other two candidates received adsurdly insignificant percentages, according to PressTV.

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-12 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

For what it's worth Stratfor is having a 'red alert' moment:


Iranian Election Commission chief Kamran Danesho held a press conference at 11:45 p.m. local time and announced that with some 20 percent of the votes counted, the president was leading with 3,462,548 votes (69.04 percent), while his main challenger, Mousavi, had 1, 425,678 (28.42 percent). Sources tell STRATFOR that these preliminary numbers pertain to the votes from the smaller towns and villages, where the president has considerable influence, as he has distributed a lot of cash to the poor.

However, Iran's state-run Press TV is saying that only 10 million of 24 million votes, or around 42 percent of the vote, have been counted. At the same time, they are also claiming that 69 percent of the vote has been counted. Obviously the numbers are not adding up, and the agencies themselves appear to be in chaos.

Prior to the announcement of the results, Mousavi held a press conference in which he said he was the winner of the election. The opposition camp is greatly concerned about fraud, and STRATFOR has been told that Mousavi has vowed to resist any fraud, even if it entails taking to the streets. This means there is considerable risk of unrest should Ahmadinejad emerge as the winner. But so far there is no evidence that the government is mobilizing security forces to deal with any such eventuality.

Red Alert: Iran's Election Results Stratfor 12 Jun 09

I just read a Twitter on the Huffington Post site comments suggesting a protest was gathering at the Interior Ministry in Tehran.  What's up?

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-12 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

Fraud or not, I expect the GOP to interpret this as a repudiation of Obama's policies of engagement.

I do think this election may be rigged, which would be a setback, but I still think engagement works because the more Ahmadinejad has to engage the Iranian people's needs, the less he'll focus on nuclear buildup.  Perhaps this is naive, but this result should not repudiate Obama's foreign policy.

by esconded 2009-06-12 02:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

Are we really concerned about the reaction of the GOP?  Some hard-core Republican neoconservatives have basically admitted they were hoping for an Ahmadinejad victory.  I would suggest their opinions at this juncture are just a few degrees shy of utterly insignificant.

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-12 02:56PM | 0 recs
Those subhuman pychopaths pray every morning

for a large terrorist attack on the US, and the bloodier the better.

These are the kind of sick MF'ers who would gladly see thousands of Americans dead in the streets, so they could say "told you so..."

by WashStateBlue 2009-06-12 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Those subhuman pychopaths pray every morning

This projection must certainly be a great big heap of Neocon boloney.

by MainStreet 2009-06-12 05:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

Though polls in Iran are notoriously inaccurate, pre-election polls had 38 to 34 advantage for Mousavi.

I don't discount Ahmadenijad's popularity but a 68 to 28 split seems to stretch credulity.

by Charles Lemos 2009-06-12 03:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

'Stretch credulity' seems an understatement.  The SMS blackout in Iran since late yesterday is an interesting wrinkle too.  Given all the pre-election hype reporting results with that dramatic a split seems to raise many doubts about the probity of the ballot counting and leave the West once again baffled at the internal politics in Iran.

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-12 03:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

I know, I saw that too! Unbelievable that the regime would shut down the SMS network. What are they thinking?

I read the other day that in Tehran there were some 110 million SMS per day in the run up to the election. Wow!

by Charles Lemos 2009-06-12 03:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

If anything the SMS blackout would undermine ad hoc organising of any kind, although Khamenei said it was to prevent rumours spreading about his own voting preference:


While casting his ballot earlier in the day, Ayatollah Khamenei had said that people were using texting to spread rumors, but it is unclear if that is why the services were shut down.

Robert F Worth - Conflicting Claims of Victory in Iran's Election NYT 12 Jun 09

So Khamenei was in on that decision.  Frankly it's the first thing I would do if I was worried about any form of spontaneous public protest and it does suggest some degree of premeditation.

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-12 03:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

The protests in the Ukraine, Greece, Latvia and Moldova were all SMS-Facebook-Twitter driven. The regime clearly learned that lesson.

I've seen some updates on Twitter but since they're in Farsi, I can't make them out.

If the mullahs did intervene to steal the election, the question is why?

by Charles Lemos 2009-06-12 04:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

I saw your tweet.  I guess the answer is 'Because they can.'  Here's an interesting tidbit from Stratfor which tends to reinforce the 'bunker mentality' preemptive theory:


Police raided and emptied presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi's central campaign headquarters, a STRATFOR source close to the Iranian political establishment said June 12. The source also said two key reformist leaders close to Mousavi have been arrested. A STRATFOR source in Iranian media said police took over Mousavi's headquarters to keep his campaign organizers from launching a potential coordinated demonstration.

Iran: Police Clear Out Mousavi's Headquarters Stratfor 12 Jun 09 2346 GMT

Not good.

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-12 04:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

Agreed not good.

There are two possibilities.

a) The media, Western and otherwise, oversold the Mousavi candidacy.

b) Certain sectors of the regime came to see Mousavi as a threat and chose to intervene.

It's not like Mousavi was going to move to reverse the Islamic revolution. Certainly, he aimed to soften some of its excesses. I mean arrests for having a mauve hajib are a bit much.

Still I am left to wonder why the regime intervened. What about a Mousavi Presidency unnerved them so to risk continued isolation from the West?

by Charles Lemos 2009-06-12 06:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

It's both a) and b).  Were there any really good polls out there?  And oil prices have risen sharply lately, so the economy may have been less of an issue.

It's going to take a broader-based coalition.  While I do think there was some rigging of this election, it appears Mousavi's support was a mile wide and a millimeter deep.  

by esconded 2009-06-12 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

I'm still with the thesis of my recent diary, there is a tectonic shift in the internal politics of the oligarchy reflected in the outcome.  Consider:


MARGARET WARNER: But didn't this also expose some fissures in the conservative class...

AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.

MARGARET WARNER: ... and among the clerics?

AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.

You know, Ahmadinejad's challenge to the old-guard revolutionary elite was absolutely very important, because it exposed this rift. Ahmadinejad comes from a second-generation revolutionary elite. They cut their political teeth in the fight against Iraq, whereas the old-guard elite cut their teeth in the fight against the shah.

These two are at each other right now. That is going to have ramifications beyond the election.

Margaret Warner - Iran's Future Unclear Following Presidential Election PBS 12 Jun 09

What we appear to be seeing is the passing of power from the old generation to the new generation of conservative revolutionary elites.  I believe Ahmadinejad's accusations of corruption were a challenge to the established oligarchy and his electoral success, fraud or not, represents an upheaval in the internal balance of power in his favour.

It's almost like a competitive election to see who could demonstrate the most influence to determine the outcome, how many provincial Interior Ministry officials could be enlisted to cook the books.  I'm suggesting this is close to being a coup d'état within the context of the power to manipulate the system within the existing heirarchy.  And Ahmadinejad has clearly emerged the victor.

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-12 07:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

"ramifications beyond the election"

and beyond Iran and the Middle East. Iran is a global player now not just a regional one. It has deepening ties to China, the DPRK, Russia, Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia, and even countries like Guatemala and Nicaragua.

I think you're right that we are seeing the passing of power from the old generation to the new generation of conservative revolutionary elites but it also the entrenchment of a conservative faction opposed to any loosening of the Islamization process.

by Charles Lemos 2009-06-12 07:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

Yes, bad news for the good guys on topics of engagement and the liberalisation of relations.  The narrow-eyed world-view of Ahmadinejad has just received a vote of confidence and may reach further into the oligarchy's labyrinthine corridors of power than we may previously have thought or anticipated.  In the immortal words of Castro, 'Ésta es malas noticias.'

by Shaun Appleby 2009-06-12 08:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

If Mousavi wins they get pressured, if Ahmadi wins, the people hate him not them, and they can look more reasonable whenever they reign him in.

Christ I hate theocracy, theirs or ours.

by MNPundit 2009-06-12 04:58PM | 0 recs
I wonder what the role

of the Revolutionary Asshats, I mean Guard is. Did anyone honestly expect an outcome that would undermine the theocratic jihadist structure of Iran today? Either Ahmad truly won and Mousavi is Iran's George McGovern, or the more likely option, is that it was clearly an unfair vote, given that texting was banned for part of today.

by Lakrosse 2009-06-12 05:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

Sully had a posted from another site that talked to a young Iranian woman. She was wearing green and rallying with the rest, but it was because in those rallies it didn't matter that she was poor and most of the Mousavi people were rich, they were united, accepted. After the election it would go back to the same way it was before and she'd be considered a lesser so she would take off her arm band and put it away.

That young woman was not going to vote, but if she did, she said she'd vote for Ahmadi because he understood her the best of the candidates.

That particular post shook me quite a bit so I'm not as surprised.

by MNPundit 2009-06-12 05:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Large Turnout In Iran's Elections

Ahmadinejad had strong support among the working class certainly and the rural sector. He's not unpopular though he has irked moderates and liberals with the stricter enforcement of the draconian moral code.

I can't say I fully understand Iran's governing power structure, power is diffused across so many different power centers. Really a fascinating country.

by Charles Lemos 2009-06-12 07:59PM | 0 recs
Lol

Ahmadinejad is going to win easily tomorrow.

by West of the Fields 2009-06-12 08:52PM | 0 recs

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