VA-Gov: First Post-Primary Poll Shows Democrat Deeds Leading

Right out of the gate, Rasmussen Reports has released a poll taken Wednesday night showing newly-minted Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds leading Republican Bob McDonnell 47-41.  No doubt, these numbers may be a bit inflated in Deeds' favor, it being a one-day poll taken as Deeds enjoyed glowing press following his come-from-behind primary victory.  Nevertheless, given that the last Ras poll matching up Deeds and McDonnell showed McDonnell leading 45-30, these are welcomed numbers.  Deeds also enjoys a slight favorability edge over McDonnell according to the poll, with Deeds at 59-27, compared with McDonnell's 52-28.

Deeds and McDonnell have, of course, tangled before, with McDonnell barely edging Deeds by a hair in the 2005 Attorney General race, the difference being 323 votes out of over 1.94 million votes counted (yes, just 323 - no, that's not a typo with zeroes missing).  So this will be very close.  This first poll, though, refutes the inevitability meme that McDonnell was hoping to spread.

After losing the NY-20 special House election and losing a Senator to a Party switch, the GOP is reeling.  Losing VA-Gov, which they are expecting to win comfortably, would be a major body blow heading into the 2010 calendar year.  So get on the Deeds bus!  Visit his website.  Join the Facebook group.  Follow Deeds on Twitter.  Subscribe to the e-mail list.  Oh, yeah, and please contribute!

If you need to know the type of Republican we're facing in Bob McDonnell, visit TheRealBobMcDonnell.com for all the dirt (and share that URL with anyone you know who lives in Virginia, has friends and family in Virginia, might move to Virginia, etc.).  If you're looking to pigeonhole McDonnell, the best description is that he is a Pat Robertson disciple.  Yeah.  So it would be awfully swell to keep him out of the Governor's office.

Remember: the 2005 Deeds-McDonnell race was decided by 323 votes out of over 1.94 million votes counted.  This race will be exceptionally close.  Every single dollar will make a difference.  Every single minute spent volunteering will make a difference.  Republicans will be favored to win this right up until Election Day.  However, if Democrats in Virginia and across the country are able to contribute time, money, and resources, we can flush the conventional wisdom down the toilet and deliver yet another embarrassment to the Rush-Newt-Cheney Republican Party and another loss to the Michael Steele RNC.

Tags: 2009 election, Bob McDonnell, Creigh Deeds, va-gov, Virginia (all tags)

Comments

8 Comments

Winning this race

is crucial to breaking Republican momentum going into 2010.  Obama needs to campaign heavily in NOVA for Deeds leading up to the election.  

by Kent 2009-06-11 06:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Republican momentum?

Momentum is there whether we like it or not.  They have gained a net three seats already since November in state legislatures through special elections alone.  

by Kent 2009-06-11 08:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Republican momentum?

That's a whopping 0.06 legislative seats per state, and yet, I am just not feeling the wave as yet.

by Steve M 2009-06-11 08:32PM | 0 recs
I'm tired of saying this

but I will continue to.

The only part of the country trending away from us is the Interior South...where two of those special elections where the Republicans gained seats were held (South Carolina and Alabama).

Look at that New Hampshire election where we were outspent and won...even though it looked like we wouldn't. We also kept another seat in the Alabama Senate that McCain won with over 65% of the vote.

and nrafter is indeed right, Republicans did win a longtime Democratic seat in the New York State Assembly in 2007...the seat of now Congressman Paul Tonko. Then the Republicans went to lose the Senate in 2008...well sorta.  

by DTOzone 2009-06-11 08:40PM | 0 recs
Re: That's momentum?

They didnt have a NET gain.  By this time in 2007, Democrats had gained seats in special elections in New York, Maine, and Florida, while Republicans only gained one in Louisiana, giving Democrats a net gain of two.  

by Kent 2009-06-11 08:44PM | 0 recs
ok now you're grasping at straws

you're trying to judge momentum over a handful of special elections in state legislature seats, of which there are over 1,000 between a net gain of two for one party and a net gain of three for the other party.

Plus, the net gain is one, as has been pointed out, the New York seat was countered with a Democratic-loss upstate.  

by DTOzone 2009-06-12 06:17AM | 0 recs
spinning the expectation game

The Democrats need get this talking point out there:

The Republicans are expected to win both Virginia and New Jersey.  If they win only one of the two, it's a victory for us.  They had two very strong candidates running in a bad economy.  

The idea is to make the GOP win both races to declare victory and claim 2010 momentum.  Winning just one will be a defeat for them.  I say this because Corzine is finished in New Jersey--he can't overcome two consecutive polls where Christie is at 50% or better.

Will the Democrats do this?  I doubt it.

by esconded 2009-06-11 07:25PM | 0 recs
Re: spinning the expectation game

Corzine can come back.  Christie is very far to the right of New Jersey.  He is no Christie Todd Whitman, but a full blown Bush style Conservative.  A strong ad campaign against Christie can turn this around.  

by Kent 2009-06-11 08:02PM | 0 recs

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