For a brief moment in time, it appeared as though the Republicans might be able to escape the 2010 cycle holding the Pennsylvania Senate seat by the skin of their teeth by recruiting former Governor and Bush cabinet secretary Tom Ridge to run for the seat and somehow shepherding him through a GOP primary against the more conservative Pat Toomey. But that no longer appears to be a possibility:

Tom Ridge will not be challenging Pat Toomey for the Republican Senate nomination in Pennsylvania in 2010. In a statement released today, the former governor and Homeland Security chief said, "[a]fter careful consideration and many conversations with friends and family and the leadership of my party, I have decided not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate."

I am enormously grateful for the confidence my party expressed in me, the encouragement and kindness of my fellow citizens in Pennsylvania and the valuable counsel I received from so many of my party colleagues. The 2010 race has significant implications for my party, and that required thoughtful reflection. All of the above made my decision a difficult and deeply personal conclusion to reach. However, this process also impressed upon me how fortunate I am to have so many friends who volunteered to support my journey if I chose to take it and continue to offer their support after I conveyed to them this morning how I believe I can best serve my commonwealth, my party and my country.

Without Ridge in the race, it's difficult to see how the Republicans can win the Pennsylvania Senate in 2010, particularly with Toomey as their candidate. Tough break for the GOP, tough break.

Update [2009-5-7 13:50:50 by Jonathan Singer]: Just to add a little bit more, it's not difficult to understand why Ridge wouldn't want to run. There is a not at all improbable possibility that there will be fewer than 40 GOP Senators in the 112th Congress, meaning that Republicans in the chamber will have even less power or sway than the already limited amount they currently hold. It's nearly unimaginable that the party's membership in the Senate could even rise above the low 40s in 2010. Republicans might be able to retake the Senate some day, but that day doesn't appear to be soon.

This reasoning goes for any number of other potential Republicans recruits for the Senate -- and even more so for House recruits. Why would someone want to invest the time and money requisite to run a credible campaign for the House or Senate knowing full well that their party is a drag on their chances and, even if they win, they would be relegated to a small, relatively powerless minority for years to come?

Unfortunately for the GOP, this reasoning is self-reinforcing. That is to say, the more times people like Ridge say no, the more it convinces other potential candidates to say no as well. How the Republicans change this cycle is unclear to me -- but it's something they are going to have to change if they want any hope of increasing their membership in Congress next year.