If this news pans out, it would be difficult to overstate how badly it augurs for Republican hopes not to see their membership in the Senate fall into the 30s in the 112th Congress.

U. S. Rep. Mark Kirk, preferred by GOP ticket-planners to run for either governor or senator, will decline both jobs in order to seek reelection to his House seat, I have been told on what I believe is excellent authority. The reason is not political but personal. His decision will likely be spun as acknowledgment that no Republican can win either race... a conclusion the liberal media will quickly buy and propagate: but the true reason lies not in politics but with other concerns.

Mark Kirk embodied the Republicans' greatest hopes for picking off a Democratic Senate seat in 2010, a GOP Congressman who won reelection in 2008 against a well funded challenger in a district Barack Obama carried handily. With the Illinois Senate race wide open -- it's unimaginable that Roland Burris will win a full term of his own, or necessarily even run next year -- Kirk had a legitimate shot at being able to beat, or at least be very competitive with, one of the number of strong Democrats looking at the race.

The Chicago Daily Observer, which is breaking the story (which still has yet to be confirmed), suggests we not read too much into it. But it's hard not to. One of the top potential recruits for the GOP nationwide -- and probably the best possible recruit to challenge a seat now held by the Democrats -- is saying no to the party. If there is any silver lining here, it is that Kirk will apparently run for reelection to the House, just about the only scenario in which the GOP keeps the seat in its hands (though that's not a shoo-in). Yet make no mistake -- if confirmed, this would be very bad news for the Republican Party.