Gender Gap Splitting GOP Over Sotomayor
by Jonathan Singer, Sat May 30, 2009 at 07:53:46 AM EDT
We have already seen how Barack Obama's nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to succeed Justice David Souter on the Supreme Court has begun to split Republican leaders, both between electeds (who must be at least somewhat accountable to voters) and unelecteds (like Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh, who face little threat of retribution for their rhetoric), as well as between those advocating for a big tent (including not only white voters) and those content with demagoguing against minorities). But apparently that's not the only division within the party today. According to Pollster.com's Margie Omero, even within the GOP base we're beginning to see some real cracks with regards to the Sotomayor nomination.
In the Gallup poll, both Democratic and Republican women are more supportive of Sotomayor than their Democratic counterparts. The difference is more modest among Democrats (men: +46 "excellent/good pick" minus "only fair/poor" pick; women: +54). Among Republicans the difference is sizable (men: -44; women: -11).The Quinnipiac poll is consistent. There is no difference in the ratings of Democratic men (+74 "approve" minus "disapprove") and Democratic women (+76). But Republican women are almost evenly divided on Sotomayor's nomination (-9), while Republican men are more decidedly disapproving (-39).
Supreme Court nominations are not only about politics, of course, and the qualifications, temperament, intelligence and beliefs of nominees are extremely important. But that does not mean that politics does not matter. And at this very early (though very important) stage in the confirmation process, Republican leaders are finding themselves with a base that overwhelmingly itching for a fight. Yes, segments of the GOP, particularly conservatives, likely want to see their leaders do anything they can to stop Sotomayor from reaching the Supreme Court -- even if such an effort is futile. Yet a significant portion of Republicans, particularly women but others as well, view Sotomayor favorably. While Republicans might not be able to win without an energized conservative base, they certainly can't win with more women and moderates leaving the party, either. So you can see why Senate Republicans are in such a difficult spot at this juncture.
Tags: Gender Gap, Republicans, Sonia Sotomayor (all tags)










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