New Q-Poll: Not Great For Sestak

by Josh Orton, Thu May 28, 2009 at 07:14:16 AM EDT

On the heels of yesterday's quasi-announcement from Rep. Sestak, a new Quinnipiac University poll (May 20 - 26, n=1,191, +/-2.8%) shows a relatively tough road for the new (sort of) candidate.

First, the topline isn't great: the Q-poll finds that Specter would beat Sestak in a primary 50 - 21%.

Second, Pennsylvanians don't hate Specter. But while Democrats seem satisfied with his work (contrary to my expectation), Penn voters generally seem unconvinced he deserves re-election:

Pennsylvania voters approve 51 - 39 percent, including 74 - 16 percent among Democrats, of the job Specter is doing. This compares to a 56 - 36 percent approval, including 81 - 10 percent among Democrats, May 4.
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By a 46 - 39 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Specter (including 70% of Dems).
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Voters split 42 - 43 percent on whether Specter deserves to be reelected (68% Dems, 38% Indies), down from 49 - 41 percent May 4.

So is there daylight for a viable primary here? Well, maybe.

Sestak has plenty of headroom to improve his name ID and favorability: 70%+ say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. In addition, while most dems approve of the job Specter is doing, overall voters aren't totally convinced he deserves reelection.

My gut says Sestak has internal polling that shows Specter's numbers are soft - that he's either vulnerable to negative messaging or the numbers look like they'll shift heavily once Sestak's ID raises. If that's the case, and Sestak spends the money to try, we could see things move.

If not, this primary might not get too far.

Tags: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, PA-Sen (all tags)

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Re: New Q-Poll: Not Great For Sestak

Sestak is pretty close to the Clintons , what would be really interesting is if Bill Clinton goes all out in support of Sestak .

That would seem to put him on one side , while his friend Rendell and President Obama on the other side with Specter...

by lori 2009-05-28 07:28AM | 0 recs

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Maybe I'm just wearing rose-colored glasses

but this seems like a pretty good starting point for Sestak. Sestak is one of nineteen members of Congress - but Specter has been statewide for decades.

Democrats are used to liking him because he's always been the "moderate" Republican. But, in a Dem primary, against a real Democrat, I'd be surprised if those approval numbers weren't relatively soft.

This poll has Specter at 50% in the primary. A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll has Specter at 55% in the primary. And a DSCC poll has Specter at 56%.

My impression is that the mid-50s will prove to be Specter's high point in the primary. He has the name ID and Dems have been generally content with him. When Sestak introduces himself, outlines where he will be (and has been) a much better Democrat on the issues than Specter, labor likely comes out for him, and people absorb the notion that Arlen is only in it for Arlen, Dem votes will leave the fake Democrat for the real Democrat.

by Senate Guru 2009-05-28 07:58AM | 0 recs

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Re: Maybe I'm just wearing rose-colored glasses

Yeah I think we're generally seeing the same things - I'm just less optimistic about labor and other support. But I agree that Specter's number HAVE to be soft.

by Josh Orton 2009-05-28 08:00AM | 0 recs

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Re: New Q-Poll: Not Great For Sestak

The outcome is not the important thing here. The important thing is putting pressure on Specter to be a real Democrat. Obviously, the stronger the challenger the greater the pressure, but Sestak is certainly credible enough that Specter can't just ignore him.

by Steve M 2009-05-28 08:11AM | 0 recs

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This is true

I just feel uncomfortable with the prospect of losing Sestak in Congress...if this is a suicide mission to keep Specter in line, I applaud Sestak and hope to see him somewhere else soon.

by DTOzone 2009-05-28 11:24AM | 0 recs

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Re: This is true

Me too. Sestak is a fine Congressman, but to see him run for Senate and then lose would be awful. It would kill his career.

by Kent 2009-05-28 11:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: New Q-Poll: Not Great For Sestak

I agree with Josh that I think Labor as a whole or at least SEIU, USW and AFSCME are willing to sit this one out in neutrality if Specter can deliver an 80% EFCA compromise (binding arbitration, increased enforcement mechanisms, stronger intimidation penalities etc).

I think this is actually a fairly good poll for Sestak as an incumbent against a no-body often goes down as they have to defend themselves. Specter is topped out at 50% to 55% and he will lose support as he has to make tough decisions (be a more generic Democrat or appease the Sunday talk show circuit). Remember Lamont v. Lieberman at this point was polling in the mid-teens at best. Now if these are the numbers in January, then Sestak is toast, but there is room for growth and Sestak has the budget to run a credible campaign. My big question on him is who are his door knockers?

by fester 2009-05-28 09:02AM | 0 recs

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Depends on what Specter does

if he balks at Labor, the unions are his doorknockers and we have an epic establishment vs. unions battle.

If Specter is a reliable Democrat, then I don't know. I would say the progressives, but even the far left isn't thrilled with Sestak.

by DTOzone 2009-05-28 11:32AM | 0 recs

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Re: New Q-Poll: Not Great For Sestak

What people dont realize is that if Sestak were to lose this primary, his political career would be over. This is a do or die race for Sestak.

by Kent 2009-05-28 10:07AM | 0 recs

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I don't think over

Sure he'd be out of Congress, but he would have made a name for himself.

While it is true Pennsylvania Dems are behind Specter, it doesn't look as if they're vigorously pushing Sestak out.

Maybe they're ok with him running if it makes Specter a better Democrat? If that's so, then I would expect Sestak to appear again in the future.

by DTOzone 2009-05-28 11:26AM | 0 recs

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Sestak would be nothing but a memory

By the next time a statewide opening came(likely in 2016). If I were him, I would stay in Congress and wait until then to keep my name out there.

by Kent 2009-05-28 11:43AM | 0 recs

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Re: New Q-Poll: Not Great For Sestak

Pennsylvania is a Blue state. Democrats are the ones keeping this guy in office. Now they are going to sweep him out because he is a Democrat???

Trying to make Arlen "a better Democrat" is foolhardy. Dems don't need a 100% ideologue. After 2010, we won't need him anyway, as the GOP retirements will ensure.

Obama wants him around for the specific reason that he isn't an ideologue. What better way to burnish his bipartisan credentials than to flip one of the highest profile senators in the country? It's clear that Obama's election caused this to happen. Why would he turn down such a gift?

If Sestak is angling for a job in the administration, this is a weird way of going about it.

by KoolJeffrey 2009-05-28 04:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: New Q-Poll: Not Great For Sestak

Why would he turn down such a gift?

It's not much of a gift if Specter doesn't actually help the President move his agenda.

If he does, then he won't lose a primary anyway.

But I believe Obama is on Specter's side for obvious reasons...he's not going to openly endorse a primary candidate against a guy he needs to get his agenda through the Senate...and God forbid Specter wins with Obama against him, it'll be a long six years.

That said, if the White House hasn't yet tried to shove Sestak out of the race, then they're not going to. There is a different response in Pennsylvania than there is in New York...for good reason I believe; in one case the White House sees no need for a primary, in the other, they might actually support one behind closed doors...if only to push the new Democrat to actually be one.

I don't believe Sestak is truly doing this with the complete opposition of the White House. I don't believe any Democrat, especially those who are up and coming like Sestak, would go against a popular president from his or her own party.

by DTOzone 2009-05-28 05:38PM | 0 recs