Steve Jarding on 'the state of the race' in Virginia
by Jerome Armstrong, Wed May 20, 2009 at 11:12:53 AM EDT
Update [2009-5-20 18:41:14 by Jerome Armstrong]: New SUSA poll. Terry McAuliffe with the lead still, but it's shrunk from 16% to 11% since the SUSA poll last month. Not surprisingly, Deeds has bumped up, and Moran has stayed the same. Two weeks ago, Deeds fired about half his staff, to go up on TV/radio early. That will come with a GOTV cost. Moran started advertising after this poll was taken. I expect the race to get even tighter.
I also don't think that SUSA is correct in their voter sample. In the 2006 Senate primary, 41% of the turnout was from NoVA, while SUSA has a sample of just 28% from NoVA. SUSA also has 12% of the Democratic Primary being Republicans and 19% Independent. This is going to be a low turnout Democratic primary with 85-95% Democrats voting.
May April McAuliffe 37 38 Deeds 26 22 Moran 22 22