Steve Jarding on 'the state of the race' in Virginia

Here's political strategist Steve Jarding, discussing the Virginia Democratic primary. Jarding worked with both Warner & Webb in previous elections:


Update [2009-5-20 18:41:14 by Jerome Armstrong]: New SUSA poll. Terry McAuliffe with the lead still, but it's shrunk from 16% to 11% since the SUSA poll last month. Not surprisingly, Deeds has bumped up, and Moran has stayed the same. Two weeks ago, Deeds fired about half his staff, to go up on TV/radio early. That will come with a GOTV cost. Moran started advertising after this poll was taken. I expect the race to get even tighter.

I also don't think that SUSA is correct in their voter sample. In the 2006 Senate primary, 41% of the turnout was from NoVA, while SUSA has a sample of just 28% from NoVA. SUSA also has 12% of the Democratic Primary being Republicans and 19% Independent. This is going to be a low turnout Democratic primary with 85-95% Democrats voting.

             May     April     
McAuliffe    37      38  
Deeds        26      22
Moran        22      22

Tags: Brian moran, steve jarding (all tags)

Comments

8 Comments

The writing is on the wall

Brian Moran is a good guy but an utterly lousy campaigner. His campaign has been really incompetent. Talk about advantages -- he had the best inherent advantages at the start of the campaign. How the heck did they allow T-Mac to overtake them? Reminds me of the Clinton folks who thought they were invincible and had this in the bag, and didn't look over their shoulder.

T-Mac is going to win this. Moran and Deeds have better chances at winning in the general, but unfortunately both of them have ran abysmal campaigns.

by richochet 2009-05-20 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: The writing is on the wall

Brian's led in most polls up until about 3 weeks ago when two polls showed McAuliffe ahead by a bit, basically, because he had the money advantage. No biggie though, as Moran is now on the air and I think he has a strong base of voters, which McAuliffe does not.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-05-20 12:49PM | 0 recs
How will Moran's attack ads play?

Will be interesting to see how Moran's faintly desperate and mostly inaccurate ads attacking McAuliffe for supporting Hillary in the primary will affect the polls...

My guess is they will help McAuliffe...

by SaveElmer 2009-05-20 04:21PM | 0 recs
Re: How will Moran's attack ads play?

It's hard to imagine how anything could help McAuliffe. He's spent over $3M in advertising already, and seems to have peaked.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-05-20 04:39PM | 0 recs
Off topic, Jerome, but

Some dolt signed up at My Left Wing under your name today and started something...

I don't have MANY rules over there, but one of them is "no pretending to be other real people." I mean, sure, one can sign up as Angelina Jolie... no danger of Angelina wandering onto my blog. But there is a microscopic chance YOU might one day feel a need to come over for one reason or other.

Anyway... it was dealt with. Swiftly and, actually, bluntly. I erased all evidence of it. Deleted the comment and the user.

by Maryscott OConnor 2009-05-20 06:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Off topic, Jerome, but

Thanks, no problem.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-05-21 06:20AM | 0 recs
Deeds and the SUSA poll

So Moran is stuck in third place.  We were all writing off Deeds, but he still is alive in this race.

I do agree about SUSA's polling.  This is the second poll in a row that underpolled both Democrats and NoVA in this primary.

I sure hope McAuliffe has peaked.

by esconded 2009-05-20 07:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Deeds and the SUSA poll

I wouldn't write off any of the three, I think they'll all be very close to 30, and within 10 points total. Moran has the biggest base and the voters most likely to vote; but he's also the most progressive candidate, and the most local validators/endorsements, and online activists-- all big things for a primary win.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-05-21 06:20AM | 0 recs

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