PA-Sen: Specter Trails, and Badly, Against Toomey

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 09:32:46 AM EDT

This week Rasmussen Reports polled 490 likely Republican primary voters, and the numbers (which have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points) look decidedly bad for incumbent Senator Arlen Specter.

Arlen Specter: 30 percent
Pat Toomey: 51 percent

Specter's troubles don't stop with the topline numbers pitting him against conservative challenger Pat Toomey. Just 42 percent of likely GOP primary voters view Specter favorably, while 55 percent view him unfavorably. These numbers look even worse in comparison to those of Toomey, who earns a 66 percent positive rating and a 19 percent negative rating from the Republican base.

Taken as a whole, this survey does little to dispel my initial take that Specter will not earn a sixth term.

Tags: PA-Sen, Pennsylvania, Senate 2010 (all tags)

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Has the Republican base ever been farther

to the right?

How do they think they can possible win independents if they keep moving that way?

Or, do they even care at this point?

Any polling on Toomey vs Democrat of Choice?

This HAS to be good news for us.

The final question might be, where does Steele and the RNC come down on this? They are between a rock and a hard place.

Loose a few of these seats from moderates being primaried out, and Obama gets the magic 60 Number (of course, we know even that is an illusion, as we have Reaganites like Evan Bayh claiming they are democrats)..

Back up Spectre, who may have the best chance in the general, and the base goes apesh*t (which is hard to imagine, since they passed Apesh*t on the way to stone cold crazy weeks ago...)

by WashStateBlue 2009-04-24 09:44AM | 0 recs

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Economic populism

When looking at the people who are weakest (whether Dodd for the Democrats or Specter for the GOP) it is interesting to note that they were harmed most recently because of economic policies that did not help the American people. With Specter this is the case with his change in views on labor. With Dodd, it's views on Wall St. The lesson would seem to be right now that anyone moving to right on economic issues will face some pressure at the ballot box.

by bruh3 2009-04-24 09:44AM | 0 recs

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You think that is what is hurting Specter

with the Republicans?

Moving to the right on economic issues?

And, it sounds like the base WANTS to move to the right, cause you can't get much righter then The Club for Growth?

by WashStateBlue 2009-04-24 09:47AM | 0 recs

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Re: You think that is what is hurting Specter

I think that's what's aiding in his overall unpopularity rather than the primary. The primary to me is just symptomatic of how far out of reach the GOP base is with the emerging consensus, but that candidates still feel they must grapple with that far right tug regardless of how the country is moving. I should have made that clear.

by bruh3 2009-04-24 09:53AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA-Sen: Specter Trails

No surprise whatsoever. Even Cronyn can't save him now.

by KoolJeffrey 2009-04-24 09:46AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA-Sen: Specter Trails,

Bull! Specter runs as an independent repug and creams anyone! He will pull a Leiberman! You would need a Rendell to beat him. Specter isn't after "Labor" votes, but he will get tons of union member votes as they are white blue collar which is the base of the repugs in PA. By voting no on EFCA he gets lots of money from business. He only voted for it before because it was a throwaway vote, just like lots of dems.

by treebark 2009-04-24 10:01AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA-Sen: Specter Trails,

The only reason he had a victory in 2004 was the support of labor. I know. I was there. It was surprising to me to see in black neighborhoods people were being handed material for both Kerry and Specter because they the labor people felt he was a friend of labor.

by bruh3 2009-04-24 10:12AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA-Sen: Specter Trails,

Doesn't Pennsylvania have a sore loser law?

by mcc 2009-04-24 11:08AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA-Sen: Specter Trails,

Um... in Pennsylvania you can't "pull a Lieberman"

You clearly have no clue as to what is really going on in PA.

by JDF 2009-04-24 11:29AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA-Sen: Specter Trails,

Have you seen the state of industry lately? I highly doubt he will get "tons" of labor votes.

by selfevident 2009-04-25 03:08AM | 0 recs

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Re: PA-Sen: Specter Trails, and Badly,

The radicalization of the right:

In another sign that could be troubling for Specter, the current poll finds that 79% of Pennsylvania Republicans have a favorable opinion of the "Tea Party" protests against big government spending and higher taxes held across the nation last week. Thirty percent (30%) know someone personally who took part. Overall, 82% of Pennsylvania Republicans say that the federal government has too much money and too much power.

Thank you, teabaggers!

by Todd Beeton 2009-04-24 10:31AM | 0 recs

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You think we would want to help these lemmings

out, but it seems, all we have to do is stay out of the way.

They are bound and determined to run off that cliff without our help.

by WashStateBlue 2009-04-24 10:45AM | 0 recs

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teabaggers and Toomey

Rasmussen also found 51% nationally had a favorable view of the tea parties, including 33% with a very favorable view.

Specter may get defeated in the GOP primary, but this doesn't guarantee a Dem pickup.

by esconded 2009-04-24 10:53AM | 0 recs

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WOW, what a shock!

Esconded quotes a Rasmussen Poll.and he is concerned..

Nothing every changes in MyDD Land!

by WashStateBlue 2009-04-24 10:58AM | 0 recs

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Re: teabaggers and Toomey

There is no chance that Toomey wins a general election statewide in Pennsylvania. The changes in voter registration that are going to help him win the primary are the same ones that are going to kill him in the General. As long as the Democrats nominate a credible candidate (perhaps Congressmen Joe Sestak) this is going to be a big pick up opportunity here in PA.

by JDF 2009-04-24 11:31AM | 0 recs

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Oh, I like the sound of that

Senator Joe Sestak!

The highest ranking former military officer now serving in congress?

Yes, let's have Toomey debate HIM on keeping America safe!

Anyone raising money yet?

by WashStateBlue 2009-04-24 11:37AM | 0 recs

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I dont want Sestak giving up PA-07

Republicans have a huge bench in that district and if the climate is anything like a negative one for Democrats, we will lose that seat. We should stick with someone like Schwartz who has a safely Democratic House seat .

by Kent 2009-04-24 12:37PM | 0 recs

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Re: I dont want Sestak giving up PA-07

I think want Sestak wants is a little more relevant than what you want. It was pretty clear from the getgo that he intended to move beyond the House.

by JDF 2009-04-28 02:39PM | 0 recs