NY-Gov: Mr. 26%

by Todd Beeton, Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 07:33:05 AM EST

Let's concede one point: winter 2009 is not a good time to be a governor. There are budget shortfalls, which require hard choices to cut popular programs and impose unpopular tax increases; no wonder so many are fleeing to the comfort of the administration. But having said that, it takes a special skill to plunge to a level of popularity below the guy who solicited prostitutes and was the focus of a federal sting.

The latest Marist College poll finds Gov. David Patterson's job approval at an historic low, the worst job approval of any governor since they started polling 27 years ago (via NYT):

Only 26 percent of the 1,045 registered voters surveyed said Mr. Paterson was doing either a good or excellent job, while 71 percent said he was doing a fair or poor job. Even Eliot Spitzer had a higher approval rating a year ago, 30 percent, when he was the governor amid his prostitution scandal. The poll results indicate that voters believe Mr. Paterson is working hard and understands the state's problems, but suggests people do not have confidence in his ability to lead.

In head-to-head match-ups both in a Democratic primary against Andrew Cuomo and in a general election against Rudy Giuliani, Patterson gets killed, performing even worse than in previous polls.

Among Democrats, Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo trounces Mr. Paterson in a hypothetical primary matchup, 62 to 26 percent. In a general election, Rudolph W. Giuliani would beat Mr. Paterson, 53 to 38 percent, according to the poll.

And how does Cuomo perform against hypothetical Republican opponents?

If Republican Rick Lazio were to campaign against Democratic New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Cuomo would defeat his Republican opponent hands down. 71% of the state's electorate report they would back Cuomo while just 20% would vote for Lazio. Cuomo doesn't do quite as well against Giuliani, yet he still receives majority support and has a wide lead against the former mayor. 56% of voters report Cuomo would be their candidate of choice in this hypothetical matchup. This compares with 39% who would cast their ballot for Giuliani.

I don't know how seriously to take Giuliani's numbers against Patterson; we all remember his heights of popularity nationally when the GOP presidential primary began. But from my perspective, Andrew Cuomo is now required to run to ensure this seat is safe. He was the people's choice for Senator and now he's the people's choice for Governor. It's hard to imagine Patterson recovering from this.

Tags: andrew cuomo, david patterson, NY-Gov (all tags)

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Re: NY-Gov: Mr. 26%

I wonder if the endless procession of commercials about how that mean ol' Paterson wants to slash funding for nurses, schoolkids, and puppydogs could have anything to do with this.

I don't know that I agree with everything Paterson has proposed, but it's just really, really difficult politically to be the person making tough choices about the budget.

by Steve M 2009-03-03 07:37AM | 0 recs

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Re: NY-Gov: Mr. 26%

Except that's not what he's doing. I wish it was. I will be honest by bringing a bit of identity politics into this. As a black guy, I wanted to see him suceed, but as Democrat many of his decisions have not been good.

For example, we all know times are tough, and that we all need to do our part in a shared sacrifice, so why does he choose to not raise taxes on the upper income? This is the kicker for me.

He's making decisions like a centrist from the 1990s. The Gillibrand choice is still having an impact on more than a small number of people. I read an article in the Washington Post just the other day that people are still giving her a tough time because of her record with issues like immigration.

So, when you look at the governor choosing her- this has got to reflect badly on him. I think a lot of this is that he's just a bad pol. He doesn't seem to read the times at all right now. Telling the middle class they need to hurt, but requiring noting of the wealthy is bad judgment.

I happen to think Cuomo is a putz. But, that's not the point. At least he's acting like a Democrat rather than a moderate Republican with his choices. They are probably intended, such as his going after Wall St, to play to the left. But, that's a space he can fill because our governor openned it up.

by bruh3 2009-03-03 07:47AM | 0 recs

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Re: NY-Gov: Mr. 26%

I am not thrilled with Paterson's budget but I get angry everytime I see an 1199/GNYHA commercial. I work in health care and these ads are incredibly misleading.

NY has an out of control Medicaid program (almost twice the pre capita spend of CA) not because of extra benefits to people but to finance incredible hospital overhead, building and spending, cheap labor through govt subsidized graduate medical training which is used to replace doctors and nurses, etc. NYC has no community hospitals because of these subsidies so everyone gets care at teaching hospitals which traditionally have much higher costs for basic procedures. In most parts of the country if you have a baby or need a routine procedure like having your appendix out you go to a community hospitals while teaching hospitals do more specicialized care like heart surgery and cancer treatment. But not NY.

Spitzer tried to do the right thing by taking on the hospital industry and lost and Paterson is running into the same thing. Paterson's numbers suck for a lot of reasons but he and Spitzer were both right on NY health spending. However, I don't think you will ever be able to tackle this beast - it is way too powerful.

by jmnyc 2009-03-03 07:50AM | 0 recs

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Health Spending

I could not agree more.

What some people forget is that Spitzer's popularity was falling not long after his first budget in '07. The main reason for this was that he took on Medicaid spending and the hospitals, and the unions slammed him for it. The same thing is happening with Paterson.

This is much bigger than people's sensibilities being offended by semi-truths and whole truths being leaked to the press about Caroline Kennedy. You think New Yorker's aren't at least somewhat accustomed to that kind of hardball?

This is about the budget. Anyone who challenges 1199 in New York goes down- they will run enough ads to make it happen.

I was so hopeful for Paterson because he never had to promise these goons anything to win an election. Now Cuomo will come and promise them the world. They'll cut SUNY and K12 and food stamps and everything else to feed the biggest, most overfed money hog in NY politics.

by enr37 2009-03-03 10:21AM | 0 recs

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Re: Health Spending

I realized that after Spitzer failed there was no way you could take on 1199. They are in bed with the hospital association and that combo is just too powerful.

I tend to agree on Paterson and the budget although I think he has been damaged some on filling the Senate seat. His ultimate choice was not a bad one from a political standpoint - an upstate woman who had success winning in unfriendly political territory. Some object to her voting record although I suspect it will be much better as a Senator. The mistake was how he handled it and the trashing of Caroline Kennedy on her way out.

by jmnyc 2009-03-03 10:40AM | 0 recs

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There's a reason this guy was never

considered a strong gubernatorial candidate before Spitzer picked him.

by Geekesque 2009-03-03 07:49AM | 0 recs

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Re: NY-Gov: Mr. 26%

Well he certainly did a bang up job on Hillary Clinton's Senatorial replacement.

On another note, Giuliani always polls better than he actually performs. This has been true since about 20 years ago, when Dinkins beat him. The two years he won it wasn't supposed to be close. Nobody knows how to poll New York City, and that's half of the state right there.

by Jess81 2009-03-03 08:51AM | 0 recs

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"the people's choice"

I don't think it's appropriate to refer to a hypothetical candidate who prevails in a hypothetical election imagined by a pollster "the people's choice."

Clearly, MyDD has a hard-on for Cuomo and a hate-on for Paterson, but other than the fact that he polls better than Paterson, is there any policy reason to support him over Cuomo? I haven't heard one yet, and so I'm even more confused as to the cause of the pro-Cuomo chatter.

Oh, and BTW, it's Paterson: one T, not two. I'm not nearly as obsessed with Paterson as MyDD, and even I know that.

by Drew 2009-03-03 02:20PM | 0 recs