A new DCCC poll conducted by the Benenson Strategy Group (400 LVs, Feb. 24-25) shows Democrat Scott Murphy closing in on Republican Jim Tedisco in the race to replace Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the House (via Politico.)

Tedisco 44
Murphy 37
Sundwall 4
Undecided 15

The last poll of this race, which showed Tedisco up 12%, was taken Feb. 18-19 and did not include Sundwall, a Libertarian candidate.

The special election is set for March 31 and does favor Tedisco, however, Nate Silver sees a possible upset in the making.

However, several factors could lead to an upset here and a Democratic win. First, recent polling has shown Murphy edging closer, and Tedisco under 50%. Second, it appears that, although Republicans will again challenge the validity of signatures, third-party libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall may be poised to get on the ballot, which would likely siphon off some Tedisco votes. Third, Democrats are spending seriously on the race, while Steele's efforts have been largely cosmetic. Steele campaigned on the idea that as chairman, he would lead the party back to winning races in territory they've been ceding. Still, his personal efforts behind fundraising on this race have been terrible, and Republicans watching the internal dynamics know it. If Tedisco wins, Steele won't get any credit behind the scenes. Fourth, Tedisco is struggling with his message on the stimulus package, which is apparently tied to his softening poll numbers.

Check out this latest web ad from Murphy on Tedisco's evasion of the simple question: "would you have voted for the stimulus package or not?"

Nate also reports that if Murphy does pull this out, that could be the end of Steele as Chairman. All the more reason to join Scott Murphy's campaign and contribute today.