Post-Stimulus, Obama Is Losing The Right, Consolidating The Middle and Left

During the stimulus debate, Republicans waged all out war on the president's plan, blanketing the airwaves with born again deficit hawks and, at one point, at least, seemed to actually be winning the stimulus message war. So what did they get for their hard work?

An increase in deficit anxiety? Check:

Overall, 59 percent of Americans are now "very concerned" about the size of the federal budget deficit, 10 percentage points higher than in a Post-ABC poll in mid-December.

A decrease in President Obama's approval rating? Check:

President Barack Obama remains highly popular among the U.S. public at the end of his first month in office. However, the 63% of Americans currently approving of his job performance is down slightly from his initial 68% rating in January. The percentage disapproving has doubled, from 12% to 24%.

But look more closely at the numbers and you see these poll results have two things in common: 1. the rise in deficit anxiety and drop in Obama's approval are almost entirely due to shifts among Republicans and right-leaning Independents; and 2. among Democrats, Obama's approval has actually risen and deficit anxiety has dropped.

From WaPo/ABC News's poll on attitudes toward the deficit:

Among Democrats, though, top level concern has slipped four points, despite the billions in new governmental outlays passed by the new Democratic president and the Democratically-controlled Congress.

By contrast, 74 percent of Republicans in the new poll expressed grave worry about the deficit, 29 points higher than in December when George W. Bush held the reins.

Sixty-one percent of independents are very concerned about the deficit, up 12 points from December, with the increase almost entirely among those who said they tend to side with the GOP.

From TPM's summary of the Gallup presidential approval poll:

Between the polling sample from January 21-25, compared to February 9-15, Obama's ratings went from 90% to 94% among self-identified liberal Democrats, from 87% to 88% among moderate Dems, from 80% to 84% with conservative Dems, and from 47% to 50% among independents. On the other hand, his approval fell from 53% to 47% moderate Republicans, with a plummet of 36% down to 22% with conservative Republicans.

While some pundits like to dismiss political disagreement as "partisan" as though the Ds and Rs next to people's names are primarily responsible for disagreement on political issues, what's become clear is that the stimulus bill has revealed a deep-rooted ideological faultline: the more liberal you are, the more comfortable you are with the stimulus package, the more conservative you are, the less you support it and the president. Which reveals a couple of lessons that I hope the administration takes away: the Republican noise machine is effective but only among a small minority; and while pushing progressive priorities will lose him some support on the right, it will solidify his support among the middle and the left.

I hope you're listening, Mr. President.

Tags: President Obama, stimulus package (all tags)

Comments

5 Comments

Reality

This is mostly true about the idealogical questions, but what it also reflects is a) cynacism since those same Republicans turn around to take the money (including the voters in the conservative districts) and b) willful ignorance about why we have a deficit (which comes out of right wing policy making).

by bruh3 2009-02-23 09:50AM | login to reply | 0 recs
high approval ratings should never be the goal

Spending a little political capital to get good legislation through Congress is well worth the price. What's the good of keeping approval ratings near 70 percent in the short term if Obama doesn't deliver on his promises?

I wouldn't be surprised to see his approval rating drop at least another 10 percent once the really contentious issues come up (like health care), but that may be part of the price of doing business with Congress.

by desmoinesdem 2009-02-23 10:23AM | login to reply | 0 recs
Yup, that's right...

Or EFCA, that will be really nasty as well...

In the end, the hard 30% righters will come home to their brain-washed lunancy, howling at the moon with Santelli and Cantor, holding a Seance to resurrect Ayn Rand, Ronnie Rayguns or Jesus himself...

I think the Wall Street crowd mistake Ayn for Jesus a lot anyway....

by washstateblue 2009-02-23 12:49PM | login to reply | 0 recs
Great Post

Let's hope the Administration learns from this.

by charles lemos 2009-02-23 02:32PM | login to reply | 0 recs
Perfect

And THAT is exactly what he needs to do.  The Right is running as far right as it can and has lost the middle.  This is right on schedule.

by scytherius 2009-02-23 04:10PM | login to reply | 0 recs

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