Will Any House Republicans Vote For The Stimulus?

Now that the House is set to vote on the final version of the stimulus package today, The AP notes a bit dramatically that GOP members are "lined up to vote against the bill." That doesn't, however, square with the unsubstantiated rumor spread by a Fox News anchor yesterday (news, schmews!) that 15 GOP representatives would be voting for the stimulus package. Steve Benen links to a Politico article that cites "20 or more" as the number of potential GOP defectors.

So which is it?

Part of me hopes a bunch of them do vote for it because I really just like the idea of their running scared of Obama, but I tend to agree with Atrios on this one:

My guess is Republican solidarity against the stimulus bill mostly holds up. As it should! They're the opposition party. It isn't their bill.

We don't have to live in David Broder's world.

Tags: Republicans, stimulus (all tags)

Comments

21 Comments

Seriously doubt they'll vote for it.

Nice as that would be, I just don't see it happening. Republicans simply don't play well with others, and when it comes down to it, I think they will find themselves rejecting the bill near universally.

If they continue trying to obstruct the process and spend the rest of their current terms interfering with the Obama administration, I think the voters will show them their displeasure shortly. People want things to get done, they're tired of constant gridlock. If the GOP doesn't change it's tactics, the people are going to send them a message -- again.

Works for me.

by sricki 2009-02-13 01:36AM | 0 recs
This I think is the long term

strategy if the Obama administration. Republicans as you said are being seen as obstructionist. In few years when we begin to feel the full effect of the stimulus and the economy is starting to pick up, in 2010 Obama will go to the American people and say, "Look, I tried many times to get Republicans on board, even used lots of their ideas, but they still didn't come along. I need more Democrats so we can pass health care (or enter any other major agenda).

I think this is brilliant for two reasons. One it will maintain Obama's bipartisan image while at the same time asking the American people to make it easier for him to pass bolder things. Secondly, for vunerable house seats, most of which probably in New England, and the Rust belt, will give Democratics a huge advantage if those Repubs vote against, and especially if the stimulus does very well.

by SocialDem 2009-02-13 06:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Seriously doubt they'll vote for it.

Yes but in the interim what happens? That is why  I keep saying we need to figure out a way in the meantime to get the agenda passed b/c who suffers as a result of things not getting done?  We do.

by jrsygrl 2009-02-13 08:43AM | 0 recs
Enough with the cult of bipartisanship!
It's HEALTHY to have critics evaluating, testing and fighting your proposals.
It makes you better, tougher and stronger, and in fact forces you to refine and improve your proposals and more clearly articulate your beliefs.
Every dictatorship eventually falls, while democracies survive and prevail.
by kosnomore 2009-02-13 04:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Enough with the cult of bipartisanship!

I definitely agree, but I think the calculus is a little different for the Republicans here because they don't actually want the bill to fail.  They just want the street cred to criticize it later.  If they had any chance of actually sinking the bill, the leadership would let a few of them vote for it.

by the mollusk 2009-02-13 07:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Enough with the cult of bipartisanship!

We get that! Obama always talks of bipartisanship as finding points of agreement on key issues. For example, McCain supporting many elements of the Obama stimulus as a candidate for president but not a senator is an example of partisanship. Gregg also came out in support of a general plan similar to Obama's plan but will likely vote against his. The point is Republicans are voting against stuff they would likely support if it was a President McCain presiding over them.

This is not productive in any democracy. So when Obama refers to bipartisanship he is not saying he expects everyone to agree or vote with him. He is saying he expects some honest debate and for people like Gregg to support the stimulus since they say they agree with most aspects of the bill.

by Lolis 2009-02-13 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Enough with the cult of bipartisanship!

And that is where he showed some I don't know naivete? I knew that there was never, ever going to be an honest bipartisan effort extended by the Reps.  Yet he seemed to believe it instead of selling it and not relying on it.  And now we are cutting things that are needed and putting stuff into this bill to hurt us all in the name of bipartisan compromise; compromise that won't get us the votes but will get us a shittier bill. So basically we could have just kept a sounder stimulus package & told them to shove it privately.

by jrsygrl 2009-02-13 09:17AM | 0 recs
Will Any House Republicans Vote For The Stimulus?

No, not if they want to survive a GOP primary in 2010 against the CFG.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-02-13 04:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Will Any House Republicans Vote

Cao has said he is going to vote for it.

by Lolis 2009-02-13 04:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Will Any House Republicans Vote

He's going to vote for it after voting against it!

by TheUnknown285 2009-02-13 06:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Will Any House Republicans Vote

I wouldn't be surprised to see a few Republican defections from the hardest-hit areas, like Michigan and Indiana.

by Steve M 2009-02-13 04:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Will Any House Republicans . . .

When you have been marginalized and found wanting in original ideas. When you inherently distrust that to which you have been elected to serve you are left with few choices. You can either dig in your heels and lash out incoherently fighting to the last or admit you were wrong and become a loyal opposition offering valid and well thought out alternatives. The former is easy and the latter is hard. A party that builds it's future on "NO" has no future.

by jsfox 2009-02-13 05:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Will Any House Republicans Vote...

I think we'll see some defectors... both from the hardest-hit areas, like someone else said above, and from moderate or Democratic-leaning districts where they're more concerned about keeping their seat in the general than in the primary.

by mistersite 2009-02-13 06:27AM | 0 recs
Re:

This stimulus vote puts the Republicans in yet another bind and between a rock and a hard place.

The GOP has suffered tremendously in public opinion over the last 10 days to the point where approval vs. disapproval numbers are showing lows for the party not seen in 40+ years.  If they come out again and vote in unison against the bill then we will see a cemented public view of pure obstructionism just to oppose.  We know that at this point obstructionism is not seen as principled opposition but as highly negative. People take it personal because it is THEIR rescue bill, more or less, that is being obstructed. Even if they don't view the bill as perfect, they much prefer action on it to categorical obstructionism.

However, if we see a good number of Republican representatives, not just one or two, peel off their party leadership and vote for the bill it cements in the public's mind that the Republican leadership lost the stimulus battle badly.  Healthy defection numbers in the 20s or 30s also further the impression that has already been gaining a lot of steam that the final bill that was hammered out is a pretty good one, despite what Republican leaders have been preaching.  

by devilrays 2009-02-13 06:39AM | 0 recs
Re:

Do you have any links to polling showing the party divide in congressional approval?

by the mollusk 2009-02-13 07:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Will Any House Republicans Vote For

I saw a couple pieces this morning that Boehner was bragging he had whittled the defectors down to 8.

It's excellent news for Democrats:  The more GOP critters that climb on that wheezing steamboat named Denial with Cap'ns Boehner and Rove, the more will drown in 2010.  They are venturing out into uncharted currents, in the eye of a gathering storm.

by dembluestates 2009-02-13 06:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Will Any House Republicans Vote For

We're going to get 8?  Cool!  That will cool the villagers jets for a bit, won't it?  The republican resolve isn't so strong after all!

by LordMike 2009-02-13 07:11AM | 0 recs
Doubling down on their bets

See, now this is the kind of stuff Nate Silver is good at.

Will the Republicans vote for it?  Absolutely not.  There are no upsides for them.  

  1. The bill will pass without them, so they aren't actually obstructing,
  2. They will say it's a failure no matter what happens.

They don't want too strong of a challenge from the right.  The economy probably won't be on solid footing in 2010 and it'll be too easy for some rightwing nutcase in the primary to say we should all be paying each other in gold bullion or that this is divine retribution for refusing to wear flag lapel pins.  

If the current members lose a primary fight, this has the dual effect of bumping off the current members and making the GOP slate even more conservative than it currently is, thus decreasing their electoral chances.

by the mollusk 2009-02-13 07:05AM | 0 recs
Why would they vote for it?

In general, they want it to pass, but they know it will pass without their votes.

so...there is little real incentive for them to vote for it.

They are going to vote against it because they just generally do not believe in spending money on public investment projects.

by d 2009-02-13 07:12AM | 0 recs
I'm more worried about the Senate

Kennedy isn't going to vote. Gregg probably is. Where does that put us?

by Travis Stark 2009-02-13 08:05AM | 0 recs
Re: The Stimulus?
So is this going to get voted on & signed by Obama today?  If so when does it take effect?
  1. Specifically, I noticed that the federal gov't will subsidize 60% of COBRA- when will that start & how will that work? This is one of the most important provisions.
  2. Unemployment compensation will go up - will that be for each state?
  3. How long are the extensions for in NJ?
  4. Food Stamps - they are changing the qualifications - if you collect the max amount on unemployment do you qualify?
FYI - you can't get answers if you call anywhere, so I thought by asking here, people who are knowledgeable in the stimulus bill provisions might be able to answer. Thx
by jrsygrl 2009-02-13 08:12AM | 0 recs

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