Virginia Polls Close

CBS News tweets:

As Polls Close in Va., CBS News Estimates GOP's Bob McDonnell Is Leading the Gov. Race

As of about 7:13 PM Eastern, even Fox News is calling this race "too close to call" (note, this is not"too early to call," which is more about timing than margin). Interesting. (Update [2009-11-3 19:28:5 by Jonathan Singer]: Fox News corrects, joins others in calling this race too early to call.)

More as we hear it...

Update [2009-11-3 19:48:51 by Jerome Armstrong]: Per Lowell, "With 16.9% of the vote counted, it's now McDonnell 63.5%-Deeds 36.4%. For LG, it's Bolling 61.7%-Wagner 38.2%. For AG, it's Cuccinelli 62.5%-Shannon 37.4%. NLS has already called the races. The only part of interest seems to be whether Wagner and Shannon get more votes than top-of-the-ticket Deeds-- now that's pathetic.

Update [2009-11-3 20:1:14 by Jonathan Singer]: The Associated Press calls the Virginia Governor race for Republican Bob McDonnell.

Tags: Governor 2009, va-gov, Virginia (all tags)



Re: Virginia Polls Close

Its " too early to call " as per msnbc ....

by lori 2009-11-03 02:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

You realize, Lori, we nominated Deeds because he was supposedly your kind of Democrat!

by Steve M 2009-11-03 02:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Hey , I didn't even know who he was and he is next door .I don't even know if he was liberal , moderate or conservative ... He was all over the map....

What seems to be clear is that he is the washington post candidate ...

by lori 2009-11-03 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Hopefully this is the last time the WaPost gets to decide the Dem nominee.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 02:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Don't bet on that , even with this embarrassment...

by lori 2009-11-03 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Deeds won a 3-way race by 25 percentage points.  It's crazy to think that the Washington Post, or any other newspaper, has that amount of influence.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Were you paying attention to the race?  That's all he had. It was perfectly timed, and he rode it in all the TV/sign spots.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 02:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

They do appear to have a big influence in the primary , but thats about it ....

Deeds wasn't smart enough not to follow the paper on the thesis thing .

They were a big part of the primary in my view...

by lori 2009-11-03 02:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

I'm not saying that their endorsement alone was what swayed people-- lots of other factors involved, but without a doubt to every close observer, that was what tipped him from an "also-ran" at 14% to a "nice guy with a shot at winning" at 20% and from there to a "this blank slate" guy is not fighting like the other candidates to seeing progressives, including bloggers, fall headlong in love with Deeds-- for no reason at all other than momo.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Whether it was a tipping point is your judgment call, but I think that's different from saying the WaPo got to decide the nominee.  50% of the Democratic electorate did not show up at the polls and vote for Deeds while repeating a zombie-like chant "must... vote... for... WaPo endorsee..."

Among other things, the other two candidates need to accept a certain measure of the blame for giving Deeds the opportunity he took.  It's not like they were running perfect campaigns when suddenly the mighty WaPo smote them down.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Only 1% of votes in, so it is 'too early' to call.

I'm not feeling the least bit good about this. I've read where Deeds 'read the summer polls wrong' and instead of going after the youth, and the younger adults, he went after those sure fire voters in hopes to change their minds.

How sad, a typical loser strategy to attempt to out conservative a conservative, Blue dogs never figure it out--got to give people a clear choice.

by Wary 2009-11-03 02:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

It's all about NoVA. Deeds will probably do as well as Kaine did in SoVA, but Dem supporters in NoVA will not turn-out is as large numbers, so that'll be all she wrote.

by vecky 2009-11-03 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Pathetic NoVA turnout where I live-- deep blue alexandria. I was #320 today at 5 pm, and I've seen that many vote by 11 AM on a good turnout day.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 02:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Johnathan, thanks so much for all of the front page election news. I really have appreciated it.

by Wary 2009-11-03 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Election days are our favorites, too!

by Jonathan Singer 2009-11-03 02:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Oh my lord, its been forever since I've been here. Lets just suck it up and say Democrats nominated a very weak campaigner.

It does not break trends--it is the ninth time in a row the opposing party of the party in the White House has won the Governorship.

by RJEvans 2009-11-03 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Sup dude, nice to see you posting.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Well I think Kos is right on why this race is the way it is. All you have to do is look at the numbers:

"What have the exit polls told us thus far? One fifth of voters were under the age of 30 last year. This year? Just 10% of the electorate. Nearly a third of the Virginia electorate were minority voters last year. This year? 20%."

Lesson: Keep trying to convince the Lori type voters, and you lose your base. The warning signs are now there regarding going forward. The Dems need to push for jobs recovery and focus on placating its base.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Therein is one of the weaknesses of the Obama coalition.

by Charles Lemos 2009-11-03 03:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

I will tell you the problem of the Obama coalition: They voted for change and they are being asked to suck it up and take whatever is being offered by the WH. That has led to demoralization and cynicism, and frankly no amount of pretty speeches and false placations can energize them. Barack Obama has yet to actually do anything that is on the side of the progressive base. Till now he has when needed twisted arms and heavyhandedly dealt with people on issues like Wall St bailout, pharma deal, Baucus bill etc, but on the progressive issues he has dismissively flicked off the base.

by tarheel74 2009-11-03 03:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Let me add that the stuff coming out of Geithner is positively screwed up and now we we hearing that they are trying to decrease SEC regulation on small firms. it is like they are in their own twilight zone. How can you run as a friend of mainstream with this sort of behavior? At the end of the day, the GOP is ape throwing poo crazy, but they know how to talk about what makes people angry even if they don't have the right solutions.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 03:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

I think it would be a good idea to loosen the regulation on small firms, but I agree that I wouldn't exactly make that the centerpiece of a winning Democratic platform.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 03:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

I am not sure about the rule change. I would have to examine it more closely. I just find the tone deafness stunning. I also find stunning Geithner's statements in the last few days. As Senator  Maria Cantwell stated, I have no idea why he is still in his position given some of the things he has advocated. He seems confused. His role is not to represent the interest of Wall Street. if for no other reason, than the populist feeling on both the right and left about Wall Street.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 03:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Yea, I agree on the small business ruling. I really doubt that more paperwork for small business is going to save investors-- GS and MS do the fleecing.

Its a good thing the Republicans have their social conservative agenda firmly at the top of their list, otherwise they would kick our buts given the D now stands for Wall St.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 03:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

I don't think the Democratic Party (read, Obama's leadership & administration) is anywhere near close to accepting those warning signs. No, the wagons have already circled to make the '09 election all about Obama, by making the mantra that the '09 election is not about him-- if you can follow down that rabbit hole. Then you have the sycophants that keep reminding us he's only been Pres for 3 days, and the likes of Plouffe keeping his day job by telling us candidate Obama is the same as President Obama. No way, denial all around-- no where near to having the ability to look at whats happening.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 03:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Denial is very dangerous. If they follow this course and in fact move rightward after this election (which is more likely given their track record), we are in for a blood bath in 2010.

by tarheel74 2009-11-03 03:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

I am already predicting that Obama will move to the middle/right with the agenda, beginning '10, its all about passing the bill with the right name attached. Incremental change will be the rally cry.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 03:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

With all due respect your prediction is a tad late. Early this year I diaried that the WH was looking to ditch the public option is favor of a Massachusetts like plan, that will shift costs to the consumer without doing anything to control premium costs. Needless to say I was ridiculed by the usual trolls and clowns. So what we have now, a tenuous and incredibly watered down public option (which incidentally was the core part of the Democratic platform) that is being opposed by the WH (or at least given some token lip service) and otherwise a health care bill that is like a gigantic gift to AHIP....a 47 million new customer gift without cost control measures cheered along but the same clowns and fools.

by tarheel74 2009-11-03 03:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Just a corollary the health care bill as it is being proposed by the WH is so audaciously AHIP friendly that even the Republicans would not dared proposed such a bill. They really have to do something audacious to top that.

by tarheel74 2009-11-03 03:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

lol, the choice is that they continue as is, or go down that road you mention. we know where Obama goes in times like this, just look at how he voted in the Senate.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 03:45PM | 0 recs
Wrong: Obama needs to move to the center.

Bill Clinton moved to the center after the 1994 debacle, and never looked back. He embraced Welfare Reform, reduction in the Capital Gains Tax, and Free Trade. That was the beginning of His resurrection as a politician. This is a center-right country, and hopefully, people will start reading the tea leaves tonight.

Even during the Lewinsky mess, Clinton's approval ratings held up. The key was that after 1994---helped by visionairies like Dick Morris---Clinton ran to the sensible center, and rehabilitated his Presidency. I hope Obama does the same, but I'm not optimistic.

by BJJ Fighter 2009-11-03 03:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Wrong: Obama needs to move to the center.

Well, the country changes. Look, progressives had a huge wave in '06 and '08, and all we got to show for it was a massive bailout of the banks and over-priced construction jobs.... I think the possibility for a center-left agenda was there earlier this year.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 03:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Interesting post at FDL from NLS:

For those of you following the 2009 elections, I don't have to tell you that Virginia-one year after voting Democratic for President for the first time since 1964-is about to sweep our most conservative Republican ticket in history to victory today. What you might find useful though is why-and how you can prevent something similar from happening in your state in 2010.

Some have compared this year's election to the 1993 election that served as a preview for what would happen in 1994. I actually think things are a little bit worse. In the 1992 election, senior citizens were one of the best voting blocks for Bill Clinton-and of course seniors have excellent voting patterns and represent a larger share of the electorate in low turnout mid-term elections. That helped save a number of Democrats in 1994-like Lawton Chiles in the Florida Governor's race. But in 2008, seniors were one of the groups with which Barack Obama struggled. The strongest groups for Democrats in 2008 were voters under the age of 30 and minority voters. Also known as the two groups whose participation historically falls in midterm elections. In Virginia this year, one poll showed the percentage of the likely electorate under the age of 30 falling 70% from 2008-and the African American share of the vote falling 39% from 2008! That's why virtually every poll has shown today's likely electorate as having voted for John McCain by double digits over Barack Obama in Virginia last year-despite Virginia having voted almost exactly the reverse.

Unfortunately for us, the Deeds campaign freaked out and read these polls wrong over the summer. Instead of attempting to energize more young and minority voters to the polls to make the electorate more representative of Virginia-they began running a campaign targeted to the people already planning to vote. Creigh began bashing federal Democratic priorities like "Cap and Trade" and health care reform to appeal to the conservatives that were headed to the polls.

And every time he did it, polls indicated turnout shriveled even further among Democrats and progressive voters-making the electorate even older, whiter, and more conservative. To which Creigh responded to by bashing federal Democrats more-which resulted in even more progressives becoming disengaged. Over and over, the cycle continued. Over the last six weeks, PPP polls indicated the share of the electorate that identified as Democrats declined from 38% to 31%. In other words almost one out of every five self-identified Democrats planning to vote on Labor Day has since then looked at Creigh Deeds and his conservative message, and decided they weren't voting. Ouch!

The people feeling this voter depression most are Democrats running downballot from Creigh for Lt. Governor, Attorney General and the House of Delegates. When an upballot candidate loses because Independents break against them, downballot candidates still have a chance by winning those Independent voters back to vote for them. But when an upballot candidate depresses the base and changes the composition of the electorate, there is nothing a downballot candidate can do. Which is the major reason why Republicans will sweep all three statewide offices today and make major gains in the House of Delegates, barring a last minute miracle.

The lesson for candidates in 2010 is clear: do not depress your base when our electorate is already far less likely to vote than Republicans to begin with. Successful candidates in 2010 will find a way to engage young voters and minority voters so they come back to the polls-and AFTER they do that, work on winning over enough Independents to win.

If this election serves as a reminder that pandering to right wingers is not a successful electoral strategy, then Creigh Deeds will have done even more good for Democrats than if he had won the Governorship today.

I am always skeptical of post-mortems that say the candidate should have run a more liberal campaign, because that's virtually always the prescription and I'm pretty sure it can't always be right.  But I think there has to be some truth to this theory.  Okay, Deeds was a bad candidate, but either the other two statewide candidates sucked just as badly, or there was something ill-advised about Deeds' campaign that poisoned the well all the way down.

You don't have to run like Dennis Kucinich, but when you have the moderate credentials like Deeds already had going in, I think you can afford to fire up the base a little bit!  This theory that all you have to do is win over the moderates, and the base is sure to come home no matter what, doesn't seem to hold up in reality.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 03:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

I don't really buy that analysis by Ben (aside from the numbers) on Deeds and the issue. Deeds ran in the primary as a "Conservative Democrat" and that's what his supporters pushed-- that he was electable, a nice guy. The reality here is that Democratic primary voters did not vote on the issues to begin with, in nomination Deeds.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 03:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

When it comes to Virginia, I never really know when you have a good insight and when you are just relitigating what must have been a difficult primary.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 03:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

"I am always skeptical of post-mortems that say the candidate should have run a more liberal campaign, because that's virtually always the prescription and I'm pretty sure it can't always be right."

Your argument seems more valid in a major election year like a presidential race. In base year turnout elections, it is almost always the case you want to excite your  base to come out to vote or you lose.

That's why the policies of the DC Democrats in 2009 are not particularly smart for 2010. The so-called swing voters will be less of a factor than convince Democrats that you are Democrats, especially considering the advantage Democrats have over the Republicans with party id,  demographic shifts, etc.  THey have belatedly tried to address some of their flawed strategies by, for example, pushing some of the benefits for the health care bill into 2010 rather than after the election next year. However, I am not sure whether or not this will be enough because of the jobs situation, economic anger over Wall Street, etc.

Even the Republican (according to one blogger I read) in the Virginia race was talking about jobs while the Democrat was not.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 03:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

It would be really hard to run a winning campaign as a liberal in Virginia...

by lori 2009-11-03 03:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

There are ways to fire up the base without advocating for a Department of Peace or whatever.  Obama certainly managed to do it in the general election.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 03:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Last year's election came just weeks after the meltdown in the financial sector, and with the economy getting worse by the day. All with W presiding over the whole mess.

The Democrats could have nominated Daffy Duck and carried Virginia. The base was fired up not by Obama, but in an anti-Bush fervor.

by BJJ Fighter 2009-11-03 03:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

again- look at the numbers. Your observations are untrue. The AA vote is critical in VA to Dems. IF they don't show up, you lose. Tonight, they did not show up.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 03:34PM | 0 recs
sorry bruh, you're wrong

With all due respect, an increased AA turnout wouldn't have altered the outcome tonight. Right now, the margin is close to 300,000 votes. That will probably tighten as more Northern Virginia precincts roll in, but in a landslide of these proportions, you're talking about a pimple on an elephant's (or in this case, a donkey's) ass.

by BJJ Fighter 2009-11-03 03:45PM | 0 recs
Re: sorry bruh, you're wrong

This was one reference point. There are others. All saying the same thing. The reason he is losing is because the Democratic base did not show up.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 03:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Of course that was the entire story.  Obama is just lucky like Felix the Cat.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 03:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

No, not really. Leslie Byrne in 2005 came up short a few percentage points for Lt Gov, even though she was vastly outspent.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 03:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

So is this the end of the road for Creigh Deeds?

by Charles Lemos 2009-11-03 03:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

I'd say that the short answer is yes....he'll be bagging groceries next week at the Piggly Wiggly.

The magnitude of his loss can't be comforting to the folks at the Post, who did everything they could to get him the primary victory, and in the general election as well.

by BJJ Fighter 2009-11-03 03:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Still a conservative Senator. The big battle next, which I think Moran will play a role in, is the Chairman of the party battle-- it'll be interesting to see if McAuliffe tries to play too. His payroll is already working it for him.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 03:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Makes me wonder how much better T-Mac would have done

by alamedadem 2009-11-03 04:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Virginia Polls Close

Maybe 3-5%

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 04:44PM | 0 recs


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