Early Exit Polls

Toplines I'm hearing (again, requisite grain of salt required!) -- Corzine 46/Christie 46/Daggett 7 percent in New Jersey (had Daggett not been on the ballot, 48 percent would have backed Christie/47 percent would have backed Corzine/4 percent would not have voted). McDonnell leads 55 percent to 45 percent over Deeds in Virginia

Toplines (with requisite grain of salt!) -- National Review's Jim Geraghty hears Corzine 47/Christie 47 in New Jersey; McDonnell 54.5/Deeds 45 in Virginia

We're still trying to track down some more background numbers, but some of the news nets are beginning to selectively release exit poll data.

  • Per CNN, voters in Virginia did not see their state's gubernatorial race as an opportunity to voice opposition to Barack Obama. A 55 percent majority of voters said that the President was not a factor in their vote, and an additional 18 percent indicated their vote in Virginia was one of support in the President. Just 24 percent of voters indicated that their vote was one of opposition to President Obama. The numbers out of New Jersey are not terribly different, with 60 percent saying that Barack Obama played no role in their gubernatorial vote, 19 percent saying that their vote was one in support of the President, and 20 percent saying that their vote was in opposition to President Obama.

    Concludes CNN, this is not a referendum on Barack Obama.

  • Chuck Todd reports that Barack Obama's approval rating among Virginia voters stands at 51 percent (just under the 52.6 percent of the vote he received in the state last November) and 57 percent in New Jersey (almost exactly the same as the 57.1 percent of the vote he earned in that state last November). In other words, exit polling indicates President Obama has not really lost supporters over the past year.

More as we hear it...

Tags: exit polls (all tags)



I did my part...

If Corzine wins by 1 vote, it was all me.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 01:03PM | 0 recs
Re: I did my part...

AGHA KHAN - that jumped out at me.

by vecky 2009-11-03 01:18PM | 0 recs

I couldn't help it.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-11-03 01:57PM | 0 recs
Re: I did my part...

Hamburger, Barbadillo, and Kahn.


by lojasmo 2009-11-03 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

Something has to make this election day interesting.  Right now I'm bored.

by Drummond 2009-11-03 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

By the way, if the Election Day voters in NJ really are split evenly, Corzine wins in a walk because of the Dem advantage in early voting.  But of course, it would be silly to trust these numbers even if they were actual polling results as opposed to total rumor.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 01:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

What about exit polls about how they view Democrats in general as they go to vote since next year will be about that?

by bruh3 2009-11-03 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

Not about Obama

Upstate Kent wrong about something?  Color me shocked and outraged at the unfairness that reality has handed our comrade.

by lojasmo 2009-11-03 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

I wonder when the sycophants and the haters that make it all about Obama will stfu.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 01:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

Hence my question about the rest of the Democrats. It is nice to k now what people think of Obama, but he's not the one running in the races next year so I won't know what they think about Democrats more generally.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 01:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

That word...sycophants...I don't think it means what you think it means.

The word "haters" absolutely doesn't mean what Bruh1/3 thinks it means.

by lojasmo 2009-11-03 02:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

You are right. You should once again post the definition from Urban Dictionary  and slang terms to substantiate your point as you did before. I don't think the Onion could make you up.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 02:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

I hope approval ratings doesn't equate to the amount of votes gotten for Corzine.

I've not known there was a 1:1 correlation. If it were McDonnell against Obama for Gov, I'd bet on McDonnell. This isn't just about a terrible Dem candidate, unfortunately.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 01:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

That a Bob McDonnell might do well in a South Carolina or a Mississippi, I don't deny. But that a man with his frankly neanderthal views can be elected Governor of Virginia tells me that Virginia is still more Southern than Middle Atlantic.

Bob Hunstman of Utah is more enlightened than Bob McDonnell. Then again I find Arnold Schwarzenegger no blessing either.

by Charles Lemos 2009-11-03 01:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

You know, a lot of people vote for offices like governor and mayor based upon who they think will do the best job of relieving traffic congestion.  Not every election is a referendum on the sort of national ideological issues that you and I care about.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 02:24PM | 0 recs

It were McDonnell vs. Obama in 2012, would you be betting on McDonnell?

I think McDonnell will be on the VP shortlist in 2012, but he'll run against Webb in 2012, or be
a potential 2016 GOP candidate.

by esconded 2009-11-03 01:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Suppose...

I don't understand how anybody  wins elections with that hair cut.

by dMarx 2009-11-03 01:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Suppose...

He would lose against Webb so  I hope you are right. And as for the VP shortlist, that past of his that Virginians are willing to ignore won't go over well outside the state.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 01:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Suppose...

No, not for Pres. Nor do I think McDonnell has a good horizon ahead of him.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 03:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

"If it were McDonnell against Obama for Gov, I'd bet on McDonnell. This isn't just about a terrible Dem candidate, unfortunately."

Obama would win hands down. The base would turnout in 'fake Virginia'. I imagine it would be a bigger victory than Obama v McCain.

by vecky 2009-11-03 01:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

These election really a lot of hype in a slow news cycle.

Regardless of who wins in Virginia, Virginia is still a state the leans red.

Regardless of who wins in New Jersey, it is still a blue state.  Give me a break, when Romney won in Mass. it didn't make that state suddenly red.

And NY-23 is still going to be red no matter what happens in this screw ball special election.  You can bet it will go back to status quo in 2010.

These elections aren't a referendum on anything.  But that can be spun that way, so I guess in that sense they are significant.

by dMarx 2009-11-03 01:39PM | 0 recs
Corzine at 80 at Intrade n/t

by esconded 2009-11-03 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

The only race I really care about today is the Maine Ref.

by lojasmo 2009-11-03 02:06PM | 0 recs
The Obama approval numbers in Virginia

are just plan flat good news, given the electorate that voted (39% fewer African Americans than '08 for example).

I am pleasantly surprised by these numbers. I was worried about a 15 point plus blowout in Virginia.  It would be nice to win one of the down ballot races.

by fladem 2009-11-03 02:38PM | 0 recs
Re: The Obama approval numbers in Virginia

Looks more like a 20+ blowout in Virginia

by dMarx 2009-11-03 04:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exit Polls

The internals of these exits just don't look good for Corzine. Christie takes 58% of Independents, while Corzine gets 33%. 27% of the electorate are Independents. These are according to CNN.

by RJEvans 2009-11-03 03:11PM | 0 recs


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