October poll average: Christie 42.75 - Corzine 42.25 - Daggett 9.5

When non-partisan pollster Fairleigh Dickinson University released a survey out of New Jersey finding that Democratic Governor Jon Corzine had taken a lead over his Republican challenger Chris Christie after nearly nine months of trailing in the race, Christie meekly retorted, "All I can tell you is this: 45 polls, 44 of them we've been ahead. We're still ahead in every other public poll except the FDU poll." What, then, will Christie say about new Democracy Corps (D) polling also showing Corzine in the lead?

Jon Corzine (D): 41 percent
Chris Christie (R): 38 percent
Chris Daggett (I): 14 percent

Much of the movement in this race, apparently, comes as voters sour on Christie.

Christie's standing has declined markedly in the last two weeks, with 42 percent now rating the Republican unfavorably versus just 30 percent who rate him favorably. This net -12 point favorability rating is a 10-point decline from two weeks ago. Corzine is rated favorably by 37 percent of voters and unfavorably by 46 percent, for a net favorability rating of -9 points.

Corzine's lead isn't large, and it's still very possible that he will not be able to pull off the major come from behind victory. That said, considering that not so long ago Christie was leading by 10 points, the fact that now not one but two polls place Corzine in the lead is nothing short of remarkable.

Update [2009-10-8 14:56:28 by Jonathan Singer]:SurveyUSA comes in with Christie up 3:

Jon Corzine (D): 40 percent
Chris Christie (R): 43 percent
Chris Daggett (I): 14 percent

Pollster.com does not appear to have punched either of these two latest surveys into their trend estimate on the race, but if you average the four public polls in the field on the race in October, the numbers look like this:

Jon Corzine (D): 42.25 percent
Chris Christie (R): 42.75 percent
Chris Daggett (I): 9.5 percent

About as tight as they come. What a race.